Win rate
70.7%
798 W / 330 L
Total PnL
$13,956
realized $7,856 · unrealized $6,100
Portfolio
$6,100
volume $489,704
Predictions
4,123
22.6/day · avg $119
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 19/10/2024 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Politics 70% +$4,769
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026? | No | 51¢ | 78¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? | Yes | 21¢ | 16¢ | +$24 | win |
| Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in 2026? | Yes | 64¢ | 78¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Trump removed via 25th Amendment before 2027? | No | 88¢ | 92¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize? | No | 76¢ | 0¢ | +$3 | win |
| Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? | No | 81¢ | 91¢ | +$2 | win |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | No | 81¢ | 84¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Donald Trump visit France in 2026? | Yes | 81¢ | 78¢ | +$2 | win |
| US congress stock trading ban before 2027? | No | 84¢ | 88¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? | No | 62¢ | 84¢ | $-6 | loss |
Other 70% +$1,669
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Lionel Messi announce his retirement in 2026? | No | 55¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | win |
| Any country withdraws from EU before 2027? | No | 78¢ | 94¢ | +$20 | win |
| Will the US strike Somalia next? | Yes | 67¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| Human moon landing in 2026? | No | 89¢ | 96¢ | +$9 | win |
| AI Industry Downturn by March 31, 2026? | No | 65¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
| Will Mamdani pass the 2% Millionaire Tax before 2027? | No | 70¢ | 86¢ | +$8 | win |
| Viktor Orbán out by December 31, 2026? | No | 45¢ | 1¢ | +$7 | win |
| Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? | No | 83¢ | 94¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? | No | 87¢ | 92¢ | +$5 | win |
| Insurrection Act invoked by December 31? | No | 57¢ | 78¢ | +$0 | — |
Crypto 91% +$1,088
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 35¢ | 46¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | No | 92¢ | 91¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will stablecoins hit $500B before 2027? | Yes | 26¢ | 15¢ | +$-0 | — |
| Bitcoin quantum-resistant upgrade implemented in 2026? | No | 78¢ | 92¢ | +$18 | win |
| Bitmine sells any Ethereum in 2026? | No | 70¢ | 68¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026? | No | 23¢ | 72¢ | +$37 | win |
| Will Melania say "Star" during Fostering the Future Together event on March 24? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Hegseth or Cooper say "Death" 3+ times during press conference? | No | 28¢ | 100¢ | +$72 | win |
| Will Bernie Sanders say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the Fighting Oligarchy rally? | No | 72¢ | 0¢ | $-22 | loss |
| Will J.D. Vance say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" in Ohio on Thursday? | No | 57¢ | 100¢ | +$22 | win |
Sports 72% +$846
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Max Verstappen retire from F1 in 2026? | No | 72¢ | 75¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 86¢ | 91¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 67¢ | 62¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 52¢ | 47¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 77¢ | 76¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 64¢ | 67¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 76¢ | 77¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 78¢ | 72¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 75¢ | 78¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 74¢ | 72¢ | $-1 | loss |
Geopolitics 71% +$413
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | No | 34¢ | 71¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? | No | 41¢ | 100¢ | +$88 | win |
| Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027? | No | 41¢ | 83¢ | +$13 | win |
| Ukraine joins NATO before 2027? | No | 81¢ | 97¢ | +$12 | win |
| US x China Military clash before 2027? | No | 85¢ | 94¢ | +$6 | win |
| US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? | No | 60¢ | 86¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027? | No | 79¢ | 0¢ | +$4 | win |
| Iran nuclear test before 2027? | No | 87¢ | 92¢ | +$1 | win |
| NATO dissolves before 2027? | No | 91¢ | 94¢ | +$0 | — |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | Yes | 47¢ | 30¢ | $-0 | loss |
Economy 38% +$17
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the March 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%? | No | 55¢ | 100¢ | +$27 | win |
| Will the March 2026 unemployment rate be 4.1%? | Yes | 8¢ | 0¢ | $-24 | loss |
| Will the November 2025 unemployment rate be 4.4%? | Yes | 29¢ | 0¢ | $-29 | loss |
| Will the November 2025 unemployment rate be 4.4%? | No | 46¢ | 100¢ | +$28 | win |
| Will Powell say "Recession" or "Depression" during speech on October 14? | Yes | 17¢ | 0¢ | $-24 | loss |
| No change in Bank of England's interest rates after September 2025 meeting? | No | 52¢ | 0¢ | $-21 | loss |
Mentions 100% +$13
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Roaring Kitty tweet again by December 31? | Yes | 27¢ | 0¢ | +$13 | win |
Elections 80% +$6
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Leavitt say "Voter ID" or "VoterID" during the next White House Press Briefing? | Yes | 22¢ | 0¢ | +$13 | win |
| Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Portugal election? | No | 71¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? | Yes | 62¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | win |
| Nepal snap election called by September 30? | Yes | 81¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | win |
| Will PAS win a majority of seats in Moldova elections? | No | 59¢ | 0¢ | $-40 | loss |
Weather 0% $-7
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will all LA wildfires be fully contained before February? | Yes | 61¢ | 100¢ | $-7 | loss |
Finance 33% $-18
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Powell say "Fed" or "Federal Reserve" 7+ times during March press conference? | No | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Powell say "Stock Market" during January press conference? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | loss |
| Pam Bondi out as Attorney General in July? | No | 93¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | loss |
Culture 40% $-34
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will BLɅϽKPIИK release an album by February 28? | Yes | 54¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will "Smurfs" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $13m? | No | 55¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will "Eddington" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $5-6.5m? | Yes | 16¢ | 0¢ | $-23 | loss |
| Will "Jurassic World" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $139-150m? | No | 73¢ | 0¢ | $-22 | loss |
Tech 60% $-83
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apple Vision Pro 2 released before 2027? | No | 63¢ | 92¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? | No | 46¢ | 22¢ | $-16 | loss |
| Will xAI release a dLLM by June 30? | No | 53¢ | 94¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Tesla release Optimus by June 30, 2026? | No | 93¢ | 94¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Ermal Meta win Sanremo 2026? | No | 82¢ | 100¢ | +$23 | win |
| Will Apple announce the iPhone 17e by February 28? | Yes | 51¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | loss |
| Will Melania say "ChatGPT" during AI talk on Friday? | No | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | win |
| Will Charlie Kirk be ranked #1 globally in Google’s Year in Search 2025 Passings? | Yes | 86¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? | No | 73¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google this year? | No | 79¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump say "God" 10+ times during TPUSA events on April 17? | No | 62.0¢ | 66¢ | +$3 | $25 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Trump's remarks not air? | No | 92.0¢ | 99¢ | +$1 | $64 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Anish Giri win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? | Yes | 5.2¢ | 0¢ | $-24 | $24 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Praggnanandhaa R win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? | Yes | 8.0¢ | 0¢ | $-24 | $24 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? | Yes | 28.7¢ | 0¢ | $-40 | $40 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Gay" during TPUSA events on April 17? | No | 71.0¢ | 90¢ | +$7 | $24 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "God" 10+ times during TPUSA events on April 17? | No | 66.0¢ | 66¢ | +$3 | $33 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Mark Rutte say "Border" during meeting with Prime Minister of Czechia? | No | 97.2¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $389 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during No Tax on Tips Roundtable? | No | 92.0¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $156 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Mark Rutte say "Alliance" during meeting with Prime Minister of Czechia? | No | 98.2¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $55 | 16/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 41.0¢ | 100¢ | +$42 | $44 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? | No | 84.0¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $42 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Trump's remarks not air? | Yes | 49.8¢ | 100¢ | +$50 | $50 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Trump's remarks not air? | No | 31.5¢ | 0¢ | $-35 | $35 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Trump dance during UFC 327? | No | 51.5¢ | 100¢ | +$61 | $64 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.5 and 39.9 on April 10, 2026? | No | 35.0¢ | 0¢ | +$43 | $43 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will Trump attend UFC 327? | No | 65.6¢ | 0¢ | +$3 | $67 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will Trump dance during UFC 327? | Yes | 33.8¢ | 0¢ | $-40 | $40 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will Melania say "Law" or "Order" during statement on April 9? | No | 59.0¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | $24 | 09/04/2026 |
| Will Melania say "Peace" or "War" 4+ times during statement on April 9? | No | 82.1¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | $59 | 09/04/2026 |
| Will Melania say "Iran" during statement on April 9? | No | 76.0¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $30 | 09/04/2026 |
| Will Melania say "Predator" during statement on April 9? | No | 67.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $27 | 09/04/2026 |
| Will Melania say "Husband" or "Trump" during statement on April 9? | No | 44.0¢ | 0¢ | $-22 | $22 | 09/04/2026 |
| Will JD Vance say "EU" or "European Union" during meetings with Orbán? | No | 64.4¢ | 100¢ | +$28 | $88 | 08/04/2026 |
| Will JD Vance say "Crazy" during meetings with Orbán? | No | 71.8¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | $48 | 08/04/2026 |
| Will JD Vance say "Rigged" during meetings with Orbán? | No | 96.1¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $192 | 08/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "AI" or "Cyber" during Monday news conference? | No | 21.0¢ | 100¢ | +$118 | $38 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Moon" during Monday news conference? | No | 87.9¢ | 100¢ | +$85 | $535 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Left Behind" during Monday news conference? | No | 90.8¢ | 100¢ | +$39 | $387 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will Belgium win UEFA Group J for 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 63.2¢ | 100¢ | +$30 | $53 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Plastic Egg" during the White House Easter Egg Roll? | No | 93.1¢ | 100¢ | +$28 | $372 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Jesus Christ" during the White House Easter Egg Roll? | No | 93.4¢ | 100¢ | +$27 | $385 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Fuck" or "Fucking" during Monday news conference? | No | 61.0¢ | 100¢ | +$23 | $44 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will Germany win UEFA Group A for 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 84.0¢ | 100¢ | +$22 | $129 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Construction" during the White House Easter Egg Roll? | No | 95.1¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | $380 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Venezuela" during Monday news conference? | No | 35.3¢ | 0¢ | +$19 | $49 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Weather" or "Rain" or "Raining" during the White House Easter Egg Roll? | No | 91.1¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | $203 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Easter" or "Egg" during Monday news conference? | No | 26.0¢ | 0¢ | +$18 | $21 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "China" during Monday news conference? | No | 97.0¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | $582 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will France win UEFA Group D for 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 80.8¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | $98 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Big Beautiful Bill" during the White House Easter Egg Roll? | No | 96.0¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | $379 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Dominance" or "Superiority" during Monday news conference? | No | 76.0¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $38 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Epic Fury" during the White House Easter Egg Roll? | No | 93.1¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $130 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will Spain win UEFA Group E for 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 71.4¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $24 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will Netherlands win UEFA Group G for 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 81.0¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $32 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "World Cup" during the White House Easter Egg Roll? | No | 95.1¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $113 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Ballroom" during the White House Easter Egg Roll? | No | 95.0¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $92 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will Austria win UEFA Group H for 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 89.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $71 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "NATO" during Monday news conference? | Yes | 65.5¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $26 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "UFC" during the White House Easter Egg Roll? | No | 97.3¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $31 | 06/04/2026 |