Win rate
75.5%
854 W / 277 L
Total PnL
$25,431
realized $19,317 · unrealized $6,114
Portfolio
$6,114
volume $1,481,587
Predictions
1,254
6.8/day · avg $1,181
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 05/11/2024 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 77% +$10,108
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | Yes | 83¢ | 100¢ | +$169 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 63¢ | 84¢ | +$118 | win |
| Will the US strike Iran next? | No | 57¢ | 100¢ | +$106 | win |
| Will the US strike Iran next? | No | 53¢ | 100¢ | +$49 | win |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 48¢ | 80¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 61¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 11, 2026? | No | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
| Will the US strike Iran next? | No | 86¢ | 100¢ | +$22 | win |
| Will the US strike Iran next? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | win |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | No | 71¢ | 31¢ | +$12 | win |
Politics 73% +$8,204
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$78 | win |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | 80¢ | 92¢ | +$65 | win |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$44 | win |
| Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in 2026? | Yes | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$36 | win |
| Trump declassifies UFO files before 2027? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | No | 85¢ | 84¢ | $-45 | loss |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | No | 70¢ | 40¢ | $-80 | loss |
| Will Trump endorse an Israeli Ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30? | No | 69¢ | 0¢ | $-8 | loss |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | Yes | 22¢ | 0¢ | $-32 | loss |
| Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? | Yes | 60¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | win |
Other 76% +$6,033
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US strike Somalia next? | Yes | 80¢ | 100¢ | +$259 | win |
| Will the US strike Somalia next? | Yes | 70¢ | 100¢ | +$168 | win |
| Will the US capture Khamenei before 2027? | No | 88¢ | 100¢ | +$139 | win |
| Will the US strike Yemen next? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | loss |
| Will the US strike Somalia next? | Yes | 77¢ | 100¢ | $-7 | loss |
| Will the US strike Somalia next? | Yes | 89¢ | 100¢ | +$44 | win |
| Will the US not strike another country before 2027? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$35 | win |
| Will the US not strike another country before 2027? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | win |
| Will the US strike Somalia next? | Yes | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | win |
| Will the US not strike another country before 2027? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | win |
Elections 82% +$560
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Catherine Trautmann be the next mayor of Strasbourg? | Yes | 71¢ | 100¢ | +$47 | win |
| Will Benoît Payan win the Marseille mayor election? | Yes | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$37 | win |
| Will Franck Allisio win the Marseille mayor election? | No | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will Sarah Knafo advance to the second round of the 2026 Paris municipal election? | No | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | win |
| Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
| Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | No | 66¢ | 0¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? | No | 89¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Yes | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will Andrew Cuomo get between 30% and 35% of the vote in 2025 NYC mayoral election? | No | 87¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Andrew Cuomo get more than 35% of the vote in 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Yes | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
Economy 89% +$356
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houthis successfully target shipping by April 15? | No | 82¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| US recession in 2025? | Yes | 58¢ | 0¢ | $-10 | loss |
| Successful Houthi attack on shipping by September 30? | No | 49¢ | 0¢ | +$86 | win |
| Successful Houthi attack on shipping by September 30? | Yes | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| Another successful Houthi attack on shipping by August 31? | Yes | 63¢ | 0¢ | +$8 | win |
| Another successful Houthi attack on shipping by August 31? | No | 87¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Another successful Houthi attack on shipping in July? | No | 76¢ | 100¢ | +$187 | win |
| Another successful Houthi attack on shipping in July? | Yes | 23¢ | 0¢ | +$33 | win |
Weather 58% +$317
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will global temperature increase by between 1.15-1.19ºC in May 2025? | Yes | 14¢ | 0¢ | $-99 | loss |
| Will global temperature increase by less than 1.22ºC in April 2025? | Yes | 28¢ | 0¢ | $-119 | loss |
| Will global temperature increase by less than 1.22ºC in April 2025? | No | 80¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will global temperature increase by between 1.27-1.31ºC in March 2025? | Yes | 30¢ | 0¢ | $-109 | loss |
| Will global temperature increase by between 1.37-1.41ºC in March 2025? | No | 77¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will global temperature increase by between 1.20-1.24ºC in February 2025? | Yes | 52¢ | 0¢ | $-72 | loss |
| Will global temperature increase by less than 1.20ºC in February 2025? | No | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 42-43°F on February 6? | No | 85¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 38-39°F on February 6? | Yes | 32¢ | 0¢ | $-28 | loss |
| Will the highest temperature in London be between 49-50°F on February 4? | Yes | 84¢ | 100¢ | +$25 | win |
Tech 83% +$68
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? | No | 73¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| GPT ads by December 31? | No | 89¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | win |
| Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? | Yes | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| Apple Vision Pro 2 released by December 31? | No | 87¢ | 100¢ | +$50 | win |
| Apple Vision Pro 2 released by December 31? | Yes | 70¢ | 0¢ | $-72 | loss |
| Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11? | Yes | 78¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | win |
| OpenAI browser by October 31? | Yes | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service by October 31? | Yes | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before August? | No | 89¢ | 100¢ | +$33 | win |
| Will GPT-5 be released by July 31? | No | 82¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
Culture 50% +$34
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will "The Conjuring: Last Rites" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $72-76m? | No | 68¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will "Dune: Part Two" win Best Sound at the 2025 Oscars? | Yes | 71¢ | 100¢ | +$69 | win |
| Will "The Substance" win Best Original Screenplay at the 2025 Oscars? | Yes | 65¢ | 0¢ | $-50 | loss |
| Will Sean Baker win Best Director at the 2025 Oscars for "Anora"? | Yes | 83¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will 'Inside Out 2' gross most in 2024? | Yes | 94¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
Mentions 100% +$5
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Khamenei tweet again by March 5? | No | 88¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
Crypto 58% $-74
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | No | 59¢ | 60¢ | +$2 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET | Up | 60¢ | 100¢ | +$35 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET | Up | 54¢ | 100¢ | +$27 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET | Up | 55¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET | Up | 53¢ | 0¢ | $-21 | loss |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET | Up | 50¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | loss |
| Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2025? | No | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025? | No | 51¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025? | Yes | 35¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | loss |
| Will Bitcoin dip below $100k before 2026? | No | 1¢ | 0¢ | $-81 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 94.7¢ | 100¢ | +$208 | $5,300 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | No | 40.9¢ | 9¢ | +$120 | $1,104 | 15/04/2026 |
| Houthis successfully target shipping by April 15? | No | 82.3¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $124 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026? | No | 68.0¢ | 98¢ | +$1 | $20 | 15/04/2026 |
| U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 15? | No | 87.2¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $202 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | Yes | 22.2¢ | 0¢ | $-32 | $40 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | No | 86.2¢ | 0¢ | $-238 | $862 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | No | 90.5¢ | 100¢ | +$128 | $1,084 | 10/04/2026 |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? | Yes | 49.5¢ | 0¢ | +$85 | $143 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | Yes | 8.4¢ | 0¢ | +$47 | $90 | 10/04/2026 |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? | No | 73.0¢ | 100¢ | $-16 | $88 | 10/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? | No | 96.3¢ | 100¢ | +$132 | $2,179 | 07/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 99.2¢ | 100¢ | +$81 | $7,011 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | Yes | 75.1¢ | 91¢ | +$77 | $1,293 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | No | 29.4¢ | 9¢ | +$22 | $103 | 07/04/2026 |
| Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? | Yes | 60.0¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | $30 | 07/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 76.0¢ | 0¢ | +$12 | $228 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will the US embassy in Venezuela reopen by March 31? | Yes | 62.5¢ | 100¢ | +$279 | $477 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$279 | $7,193 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | No | 78.7¢ | 100¢ | +$256 | $1,220 | 31/03/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by March 15, 2026? | No | 87.7¢ | 100¢ | +$236 | $1,670 | 31/03/2026 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 41.7¢ | 100¢ | +$202 | $216 | 31/03/2026 |
| US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31? | No | 40.9¢ | 100¢ | +$191 | $143 | 31/03/2026 |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | No | 98.4¢ | 100¢ | +$173 | $10,184 | 31/03/2026 |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by March 31, 2026? | No | 83.0¢ | 100¢ | +$168 | $1,071 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 3? | No | 76.2¢ | 100¢ | +$152 | $721 | 31/03/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by March 31, 2026? | No | 99.5¢ | 100¢ | +$147 | $4,496 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran leadership change by March 31? | No | 80.7¢ | 100¢ | +$125 | $968 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 1, 2026? | No | 88.9¢ | 100¢ | +$103 | $755 | 31/03/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? | No | 93.2¢ | 100¢ | +$102 | $1,957 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will another country strike Iran by March 31? | No | 91.9¢ | 100¢ | +$87 | $988 | 31/03/2026 |
| Maduro leaves Venezuela by March 31? | No | 44.7¢ | 0¢ | +$75 | $176 | 31/03/2026 |
| Weed rescheduled by March 31? | No | 63.7¢ | 100¢ | +$69 | $185 | 31/03/2026 |
| US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31? | Yes | 82.7¢ | 100¢ | +$67 | $582 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? | No | 88.7¢ | 100¢ | +$57 | $872 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by March 31 2026? | No | 91.6¢ | 100¢ | +$57 | $1,544 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 31? | Yes | 83.5¢ | 100¢ | +$50 | $381 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 15? | Yes | 80.0¢ | 100¢ | +$47 | $147 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Netanyahu visit NYC by March 31? | No | 95.8¢ | 100¢ | +$46 | $1,083 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by March 31? | No | 88.0¢ | 100¢ | +$44 | $331 | 31/03/2026 |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026? | No | 35.7¢ | 0¢ | +$43 | $107 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31? | No | 57.0¢ | 100¢ | +$42 | $199 | 31/03/2026 |
| US strikes Yemen by February 28, 2026? | Yes | 9.0¢ | 0¢ | +$37 | $54 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel strike Gaza on March 8, 2026? | Yes | 82.5¢ | 100¢ | +$35 | $165 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? | No | 94.1¢ | 100¢ | +$29 | $471 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? | No | 87.0¢ | 100¢ | +$22 | $870 | 31/03/2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? | No | 86.0¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | $533 | 31/03/2026 |
| Houthi strike on Israel by April 15, 2026? | No | 75.8¢ | 0¢ | +$10 | $190 | 31/03/2026 |
| Another critical Cloudflare incident by February 28, 2026? | No | 84.5¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $51 | 31/03/2026 |
| Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026? | No | 99.2¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $1,002 | 31/03/2026 |