Win rate
70.8%
527 W / 217 L
Total PnL
$19,629
realized $3,693 · unrealized $15,936
Portfolio
$15,936
volume $1,379,429
Predictions
905
17.8/day · avg $1,524
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 08/12/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Tech 73% +$7,267
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meta "Mango" model released by June 30? | No | 66¢ | 26¢ | +$5 | win |
| Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30? | Yes | 64¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 50¢ | 62¢ | $-14 | loss |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | Yes | 16¢ | 23¢ | +$44 | win |
| Will Google have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? | Yes | 15¢ | 21¢ | +$32 | win |
| Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? | Yes | 45¢ | 22¢ | +$228 | win |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | Yes | 8¢ | 0¢ | $-7 | loss |
| GPT-5.5 released by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 64¢ | 97¢ | $-57 | loss |
| Will Google have the #3 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)? | Yes | 36¢ | 1¢ | $-14 | loss |
| Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026? | Yes | 53¢ | 36¢ | $-33 | loss |
Other 66% +$6,016
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? | Yes | 53¢ | 60¢ | +$12 | win |
| Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X? | No | 66¢ | 68¢ | +$0 | win |
| Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch? | Yes | 70¢ | 0¢ | +$7 | win |
| Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? | No | 12¢ | 55¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Extended FDV above $1B one day after launch? | No | 82¢ | 94¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Moonbirds FDV above $200M one day after launch? | No | 72¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | win |
| Paradex FDV above $300M one day after launch? | Yes | 59¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | win |
| StandX FDV above $800M one day after launch? | Yes | 66¢ | 16¢ | +$0 | win |
| Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch? | No | 28¢ | 100¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch? | Yes | 52¢ | 0¢ | $-37 | loss |
Geopolitics 79% +$4,949
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | No | 31¢ | 70¢ | +$0 | — |
| Iran leadership change or US x Iran ceasefire first? | Ceasefire | 68¢ | 100¢ | +$47 | win |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 70¢ | 78¢ | +$18 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Yes | 36¢ | 16¢ | +$13 | win |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? | Yes | 47¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | Yes | 74¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | No | 21¢ | 0¢ | $-23 | loss |
| Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? | No | 61¢ | 74¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | 71¢ | 94¢ | +$6 | win |
| Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 62¢ | 26¢ | +$4 | win |
Crypto 76% +$3,062
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Backpack launch a token by March 31? | No | 25¢ | 0¢ | +$24 | win |
| Will Opinion launch a token by March 31, 2026? | No | 13¢ | 0¢ | $-13 | loss |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 18¢ | 0¢ | $-39 | loss |
| Will Paradex launch a token by March 31 2026? | Yes | 86¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Paradex launch a token by February 28, 2026? | No | 69¢ | 100¢ | $-11 | loss |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | No | 70¢ | 62¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026? | No | 36¢ | 78¢ | +$57 | win |
| Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in March? | Yes | 48¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | win |
| Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31? | Yes | 27¢ | 100¢ | +$67 | win |
| Nothing Ever Happens: Crypto Edition | Yes | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
Elections 67% +$640
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 25¢ | 19¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 37¢ | 40¢ | +$102 | win |
| Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 62¢ | 66¢ | +$85 | win |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 89¢ | 75¢ | $-16 | loss |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 82¢ | 85¢ | +$60 | win |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 82¢ | 84¢ | +$15 | win |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 74¢ | 86¢ | +$498 | win |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 75¢ | 86¢ | +$91 | win |
Sports 75% +$431
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 37¢ | 46¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Will Bilibili Gaming Gaming win the LPL 2026 Split 1 playoffs? | Yes | 56¢ | 100¢ | +$24 | win |
| Will annual inflation increase by 2.5% in February? | No | 65¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will annual inflation increase by 2.4% in February? | Yes | 42¢ | 100¢ | $-7 | loss |
| LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO5) - LPL Playoffs | Anyones Legend | 55¢ | 0¢ | $-36 | loss |
| Will the United States win the second most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? | Yes | 73¢ | 100¢ | +$26 | win |
| Will the United States win the second most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? | No | 28¢ | 0¢ | +$22 | win |
| Will the United States win the second most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? | Yes | 87¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Germany win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | $-17 | loss |
| Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 75M and 100M views in its first 7 days? | Yes | 74¢ | 100¢ | +$58 | win |
Economy 100% +$272
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houthis successfully target shipping by April 30? | No | 67¢ | 84¢ | +$52 | win |
Politics 81% +$33
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? | No | 58¢ | 58¢ | $-28 | loss |
| Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice? | No | 58¢ | 78¢ | +$81 | win |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April? | No | 74¢ | 36¢ | $-33 | loss |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? | No | 86¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January? | No | 72¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | win |
| Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by January 15? | No | 89¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| TrumpRX launched by January 31, 2026? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by January 9? | No | 23¢ | 0¢ | $-147 | loss |
Mentions 0% $-1
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Khamenei tweet again on March 16, 2026? | Yes | 58¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
Esports 60% $-105
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LoL: Gen.G vs G2 Esports - Game 1 Winner | Gen.G | 34¢ | 0¢ | $-138 | loss |
| LoL: G2 Esports vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A | BNK FEARX | 59¢ | 0¢ | +$22 | win |
| Will G2 Esports win the LEC 2026 Versus? | Yes | 68¢ | 100¢ | +$254 | win |
| LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Versus Playoffs | G2 Esports | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Versus Playoffs | Karmine Corp | 24¢ | 0¢ | $-244 | loss |
Culture 36% $-283
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will "Undertone" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 10m? | Yes | 35¢ | 0¢ | $-101 | loss |
| Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 54¢ | 0¢ | $-31 | loss |
| Will "Scream 7" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 65m? | Yes | 39¢ | 0¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Will "How to Make a Killing" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3.5m and 5m? | Yes | 50¢ | 0¢ | $-79 | loss |
| Will "How to Make a Killing" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3m and 3.5m? | Yes | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will "How to Make a Killing" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 3.5m? | No | 25¢ | 0¢ | $-47 | loss |
Finance 40% $-1,227
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? | No | 16¢ | 6¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027? | Yes | 12¢ | 3¢ | $-109 | loss |
| Will Perplexity AI announce bankruptcy before 2027? | No | 77¢ | 92¢ | +$10 | win |
| SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? | Yes | 77¢ | 95¢ | $-500 | loss |
| SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? | No | 26¢ | 5¢ | $-391 | loss |
| Will Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026? | No | 61¢ | 24¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? | No | 26¢ | 30¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? | Yes | 27¢ | 12¢ | $-166 | loss |
| Will Nebius say "TripleTen" or "Triple Ten" during earnings call? | Yes | 23¢ | 0¢ | $-56 | loss |
| Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day? | Yes | 24¢ | 22¢ | $-4 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude 4.7 released by April 17? | Yes | 90.6¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | $226 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will TurboTax: File Your Tax Return be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on April 17? | Yes | 93.8¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $30 | 17/04/2026 |
| Claude 4.7 released by April 17? | No | 24.0¢ | 0¢ | $-11 | $72 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on April 17, 2026? | No | 3.2¢ | 0¢ | +$231 | $82 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? | No | 58.2¢ | 100¢ | +$200 | $1,181 | 15/04/2026 |
| Houthis successfully target shipping by April 15? | No | 96.8¢ | 100¢ | +$143 | $1,629 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by April 15? | Yes | 76.3¢ | 100¢ | +$127 | $415 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | No | 39.0¢ | 100¢ | +$68 | $632 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 5.9¢ | 0¢ | +$65 | $201 | 15/04/2026 |
| U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 15? | No | 83.4¢ | 100¢ | +$60 | $419 | 15/04/2026 |
| GPT-5.5 released by April 15, 2026? | No | 61.0¢ | 100¢ | +$59 | $183 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | No | 83.2¢ | 0¢ | +$56 | $1,581 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 85.5¢ | 100¢ | +$41 | $641 | 15/04/2026 |
| DeepSeek V4 released by April 15? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$33 | $1,860 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026? | No | 98.5¢ | 100¢ | +$29 | $965 | 15/04/2026 |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15? | No | 95.7¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | $765 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 88.0¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | $1,867 | 15/04/2026 |
| GPT-5.5 released by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 33.8¢ | 0¢ | +$15 | $295 | 15/04/2026 |
| DeepSeek V4 released by April 15? | Yes | 59.0¢ | 0¢ | +$6 | $62 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026? | No | 97.3¢ | 98¢ | +$5 | $1,462 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | Yes | 64.7¢ | 91¢ | $-4 | $1,266 | 15/04/2026 |
| Houthi military action against Israel by April 15, 2026? | No | 32.4¢ | 0¢ | $-176 | $701 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by April 15? | Yes | 79.1¢ | 100¢ | +$50 | $190 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 31? | No | 83.4¢ | 100¢ | +$42 | $216 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 82.5¢ | 85¢ | +$60 | $1,327 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 81.9¢ | 84¢ | +$15 | $614 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will ChatGPT be back in as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by April 12? | Yes | 79.8¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | $33 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 20.0¢ | 16¢ | $-185 | $817 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 74.5¢ | 86¢ | +$498 | $3,345 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 74.6¢ | 86¢ | +$91 | $1,008 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 19.0¢ | 15¢ | $-13 | $63 | 12/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | No | 55.6¢ | 100¢ | +$67 | $281 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will MrBeast's latest video get between 66 and 67 million views on day 4? | No | 71.4¢ | 0¢ | $-41 | $409 | 08/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? | No | 88.1¢ | 100¢ | +$65 | $721 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on April 7? | Yes | 97.9¢ | 100¢ | +$45 | $446 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will DualShot Recorder be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on April 7? | No | 79.5¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | $134 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | Yes | 45.6¢ | 91¢ | +$19 | $369 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 8? | Yes | 53.1¢ | 100¢ | +$258 | $558 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 9? | Yes | 42.0¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | $25 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on April 3? | No | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $301 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will DualShot Recorder be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on April 3? | Yes | 71.7¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $83 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 9? | No | 34.3¢ | 0¢ | $-0 | $60 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 13? | No | 36.6¢ | 0¢ | $-28 | $244 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 8? | No | 67.5¢ | 0¢ | $-71 | $181 | 03/04/2026 |
| Penguin listed on Binance by March 31? | No | 85.0¢ | 100¢ | +$47 | $368 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Bilibili Gaming Gaming win the LPL 2026 Split 1 playoffs? | Yes | 55.7¢ | 100¢ | +$24 | $84 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in March? | Yes | 48.0¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | $48 | 01/04/2026 |
| Penguin listed on Binance by March 31? | Yes | 24.3¢ | 0¢ | +$9 | $21 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding on March 31? | Yes | 88.1¢ | 100¢ | +$891 | $6,852 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $640b and $650b on March 31? | Yes | 48.6¢ | 100¢ | +$652 | $875 | 31/03/2026 |