Win rate
80.3%
425 W / 104 L
Total PnL
$-41,378
realized $-56,299 · unrealized $14,921
Portfolio
$14,921
volume $987,779
Predictions
548
6.8/day · avg $1,803
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 07/10/2024 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Other 85% +$5,875
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March? | Yes | 60¢ | 0¢ | $-329 | loss |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by March 20? | No | 79¢ | 100¢ | +$29 | win |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by March 13? | No | 83¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Curtis Sliwa drop out? | No | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$3,317 | win |
| Will the Government shutdown end October 3-5? | No | 87¢ | 100¢ | +$455 | win |
| US government shutdown by October 1? | Yes | 76¢ | 100¢ | +$867 | win |
| Minnesota shooting suspect Vance Boelter captured today? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$53 | win |
| Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | Yes | 77¢ | 100¢ | +$907 | win |
Geopolitics 89% +$816
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | No | 40¢ | 0¢ | $-696 | loss |
| Iran leadership change by March 31? | No | 82¢ | 100¢ | +$171 | win |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? | No | 89¢ | 100¢ | +$54 | win |
| Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by December 31? | No | 83¢ | 100¢ | +$461 | win |
| Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 12? | No | 81¢ | 100¢ | +$336 | win |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? | No | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$45 | win |
Finance 83% +$567
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 2? | Down | 85¢ | 0¢ | $-40 | loss |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 27? | Down | 28¢ | 100¢ | +$374 | win |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 12? | Down | 79¢ | 100¢ | +$122 | win |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 12? | Down | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$62 | win |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on December 31? | Down | 79¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | win |
| Will Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) beat quarterly earnings? | Yes | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$29 | win |
Sports 80% +$223
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49ers vs. Seahawks | Seahawks | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | win |
| Cowboys vs. Commanders | Cowboys | 73¢ | 100¢ | +$79 | win |
| 49ers vs. Colts | 49ers | 70¢ | 100¢ | +$96 | win |
| Knicks vs. Pacers | Pacers | 62¢ | 100¢ | +$61 | win |
| Pacers vs. Knicks | Pacers | 38¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | loss |
Tech 78% $-181
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of March 30 above $360? | Yes | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$23 | win |
| Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $370 on March 27? | No | 69¢ | 100¢ | +$55 | win |
| Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of March 9 above $400? | Yes | 78¢ | 0¢ | $-78 | loss |
| Will Google (GOOGL) close at $280-$285 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 9 – Mar 13? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of March 9 above $290? | Yes | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $390-$400 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 9 – Mar 13? | No | 90¢ | 0¢ | $-327 | loss |
| Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $405 end of February? | No | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings? | Yes | 88¢ | 100¢ | +$134 | win |
Politics 71% $-2,327
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 81¢ | 0¢ | $-1,933 | loss |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? | No | 88¢ | 100¢ | +$59 | win |
| Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in October? | No | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$213 | win |
| Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? | Yes | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$150 | win |
| Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$167 | win |
| Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City? | Yes | 65¢ | 0¢ | $-1,042 | loss |
Elections 17% $-21,453
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Yes | 89¢ | 100¢ | +$12,587 | win |
| Will Curtis Sliwa get less than 10% of the vote in 2025 NYC mayoral election? | No | 80¢ | 0¢ | $-1,215 | loss |
| Will UP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election? | Yes | 95¢ | 0¢ | $-1,290 | loss |
| Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election? | No | 95¢ | 0¢ | $-1,461 | loss |
| 2024 Balance of Power: R Prez R Senate R House | No | 62¢ | 0¢ | $-21,575 | loss |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 41¢ | 0¢ | $-8,498 | loss |
Crypto 81% $-24,922
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first? | $3,000 | 62¢ | 70¢ | $-51 | loss |
| Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? | $80k | 69¢ | 82¢ | +$39 | win |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? | No | 75¢ | 90¢ | +$399 | win |
| Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in April? | No | 77¢ | 91¢ | +$343 | win |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 April 13-19? | No | 83¢ | 100¢ | +$271 | win |
| Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 April 13-19? | No | 83¢ | 99¢ | +$240 | win |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 20? | Yes | 89¢ | 98¢ | +$80 | win |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 19? | Yes | 91¢ | 98¢ | +$17 | win |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 19? | Yes | 75¢ | 74¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Ethereum dip to $2,300 on April 17? | No | 95¢ | 98¢ | +$24 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 17? | Yes | 77.3¢ | 100¢ | +$115 | $392 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 17? | Yes | 78.0¢ | 100¢ | +$110 | $390 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 17? | Yes | 86.6¢ | 100¢ | +$98 | $638 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 17? | Yes | 74.0¢ | 100¢ | +$78 | $222 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Ethereum dip to $2,250 on April 16? | No | 91.0¢ | 100¢ | +$36 | $364 | 17/04/2026 |
| Ethereum Up or Down on April 17? | Up | 91.0¢ | 100¢ | +$22 | $228 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on April 16? | No | 87.0¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | $87 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 16? | Yes | 82.4¢ | 100¢ | +$123 | $577 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 16? | Yes | 60.6¢ | 100¢ | +$109 | $168 | 16/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on April 16? | Up | 79.0¢ | 100¢ | +$85 | $321 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 16? | Yes | 90.0¢ | 100¢ | +$56 | $502 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Ethereum dip to $2,250 on April 15? | No | 82.0¢ | 100¢ | +$36 | $164 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 on April 15? | No | 88.0¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | $132 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on April 14? | No | 79.1¢ | 100¢ | +$84 | $318 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 15? | Yes | 78.0¢ | 100¢ | +$44 | $156 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 15? | Yes | 89.0¢ | 100¢ | +$42 | $338 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 15? | Yes | 91.8¢ | 100¢ | +$41 | $459 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 on April 14? | No | 95.0¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $190 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Ethereum dip to $2,300 on April 14? | No | 93.0¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $93 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 15? | Yes | 71.8¢ | 0¢ | $-183 | $187 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 14? | Yes | 92.0¢ | 100¢ | +$60 | $695 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $69,000 on April 13? | No | 90.0¢ | 100¢ | +$30 | $270 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 14? | Yes | 94.0¢ | 100¢ | +$30 | $470 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 14? | Yes | 88.9¢ | 100¢ | +$25 | $200 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 on April 13? | No | 95.0¢ | 100¢ | +$24 | $461 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 14? | Yes | 92.1¢ | 100¢ | +$24 | $281 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 14? | Yes | 89.8¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | $189 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 14? | Yes | 78.6¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | $79 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will Ethereum dip to $2,150 on April 13? | No | 94.0¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $188 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 April 6-12? | No | 66.6¢ | 100¢ | +$904 | $1,803 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 April 6-12? | No | 82.3¢ | 100¢ | +$527 | $2,470 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 April 6-12? | No | 87.0¢ | 100¢ | +$246 | $1,656 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 13? | Yes | 88.0¢ | 100¢ | +$216 | $1,577 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 13? | Yes | 95.1¢ | 100¢ | +$33 | $647 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 13? | Yes | 96.6¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $97 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Ethereum reach $2,250 on April 12? | No | 91.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $455 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 13? | Yes | 87.0¢ | 100¢ | $-126 | $435 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 12? | Yes | 84.0¢ | 100¢ | +$160 | $840 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 12? | No | 73.0¢ | 100¢ | +$37 | $100 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 12? | Yes | 94.9¢ | 100¢ | +$36 | $660 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 12? | Yes | 64.0¢ | 0¢ | $-192 | $192 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 12? | Yes | 80.5¢ | 0¢ | $-433 | $757 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 11? | Yes | 64.0¢ | 100¢ | +$190 | $337 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 11? | Yes | 86.3¢ | 100¢ | +$95 | $597 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 11? | Yes | 91.0¢ | 100¢ | +$45 | $455 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 on April 9? | No | 93.0¢ | 100¢ | +$42 | $558 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 10? | Yes | 92.0¢ | 100¢ | +$33 | $375 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 9? | Yes | 88.1¢ | 100¢ | +$124 | $918 | 09/04/2026 |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 9? | Yes | 63.0¢ | 100¢ | +$111 | $189 | 09/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 on April 8? | No | 92.2¢ | 100¢ | +$65 | $765 | 09/04/2026 |