Win rate
45.3%
125 W / 151 L
Total PnL
$8,922
realized $-6,827 · unrealized $15,749
Portfolio
$15,749
volume $1,372,899
Predictions
308
2.2/day · avg $4,457
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 24/11/2024 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | no |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 46% +$11,601
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 71¢ | 84¢ | +$131 | win |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Yes | 40¢ | 70¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? | Yes | 25¢ | 25¢ | $-9 | loss |
| Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? | No | 70¢ | 78¢ | +$43 | win |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? | Yes | 21¢ | 100¢ | +$1,042 | win |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? | No | 4¢ | 2¢ | $-22 | loss |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? | No | 5¢ | 4¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | Yes | 9¢ | 6¢ | $-484 | loss |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | No | 70¢ | 72¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 21, 2026? | Yes | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$83 | win |
Sports 56% +$282
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clippers vs. Bulls | Clippers | 39¢ | 0¢ | $-39 | loss |
| Mavericks vs. Knicks | Mavericks | 20¢ | 100¢ | +$80 | win |
| Suns vs. Knicks | Suns | 40¢ | 100¢ | +$60 | win |
| Nuggets vs. Mavericks | Nuggets | 51¢ | 100¢ | +$49 | win |
| Cavaliers vs. 76ers | 76ers | 49¢ | 0¢ | $-49 | loss |
| Grizzlies vs. Magic | Grizzlies | 31¢ | 0¢ | $-78 | loss |
| Rockets vs. Kings | Kings | 16¢ | 100¢ | +$168 | win |
| Nets vs. Grizzlies | Nets | 29¢ | 0¢ | $-58 | loss |
| Rockets vs. Trail Blazers | Trail Blazers | 31¢ | 100¢ | +$69 | win |
| Hawks vs. Nuggets | Nuggets | 48¢ | 0¢ | $-48 | loss |
Other 42% +$242
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Yes | 49¢ | 54¢ | $-80 | loss |
| Will Claude 4.7 be released on April 17, 2026? | Yes | 8¢ | 0¢ | $-22 | loss |
| Will a new country join the Abraham Accords in 2025? | Yes | 48¢ | 0¢ | +$552 | win |
| Will a new country join the Abraham Accords in 2025? | No | 66¢ | 100¢ | $-88 | loss |
| Fact Check: Is Tyler Robinson queer? | Yes | 13¢ | 100¢ | +$93 | win |
| Will Gold close above $4000 at the end of 2025? | Yes | 79¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| Fact Check: Is Tyler Robinson queer? | No | 4¢ | 0¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Elon register the America Party in July? | Yes | 13¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? | No | 10¢ | 0¢ | $-7 | loss |
| Foreign intervention in Gaza in 2025? | Yes | 30¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | loss |
Finance 0% $-0
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bondi, Bongino or Patel out by July 18th? | No | 83¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | loss |
Elections 33% $-149
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Yes | 22¢ | 28¢ | +$173 | win |
| Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | Yes | 39¢ | 100¢ | $-26 | loss |
| Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Yes | 9¢ | 0¢ | $-296 | loss |
Crypto 0% $-205
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Mark Cuban launch a coin by Friday? | Yes | 39¢ | 0¢ | $-78 | loss |
| Will MicroStrategy purchase more Bitcoin in 2024? | No | 10¢ | 0¢ | $-127 | loss |
Economy 0% $-236
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houthis agree to end attacks on shipping before July? | No | 59¢ | 0¢ | $-236 | loss |
Tech 20% $-499
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OpenAI browser by October 31? | No | 21¢ | 0¢ | +$161 | win |
| OpenAI browser by October 31? | Yes | 92¢ | 100¢ | $-354 | loss |
| Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 24? | Yes | 29¢ | 0¢ | $-229 | loss |
| NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down - October 15 | Up | 30¢ | 0¢ | $-60 | loss |
Politics 49% $-1,739
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? | Yes | 39¢ | 39¢ | +$69 | win |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026? | No | 31¢ | 29¢ | $-104 | loss |
| Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? | Yes | 5¢ | 25¢ | +$198 | win |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | Yes | 14¢ | 0¢ | +$68 | win |
| Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” by January 31? | No | 15¢ | 0¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | Yes | 3¢ | 0¢ | $-233 | loss |
| Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2025? | Yes | 27¢ | 0¢ | $-275 | loss |
| Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in October? | Yes | 10¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | loss |
| Will Trump visit the Western Wall by October 31? | Yes | 3¢ | 0¢ | $-28 | loss |
| Will Trump send Tomahawk to Ukraine by October 31? | Yes | 32¢ | 0¢ | $-33 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 10.4¢ | 0¢ | +$746 | $784 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | Yes | 90.5¢ | 100¢ | +$208 | $1,990 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | Yes | 14.0¢ | 0¢ | +$68 | $56 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | No | 79.8¢ | 100¢ | +$57 | $4,072 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026? | No | 8.0¢ | 0¢ | $-92 | $129 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | Yes | 45.7¢ | 91¢ | +$2,086 | $8,891 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 11, 2026? | No | 5.5¢ | 0¢ | $-43 | $55 | 11/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | Yes | 21.5¢ | 0¢ | $-219 | $239 | 10/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | No | 59.8¢ | 10¢ | +$4 | $266 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | Yes | 46.6¢ | 90¢ | +$1,515 | $21,206 | 07/04/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | Yes | 24.4¢ | 100¢ | +$7,548 | $7,747 | 31/03/2026 |
| Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026? | No | 37.6¢ | 100¢ | +$449 | $376 | 31/03/2026 |
| Houthi strike on Israel by March 15, 2026? | No | 69.8¢ | 100¢ | +$146 | $349 | 31/03/2026 |
| Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations by March 31? | No | 84.5¢ | 100¢ | +$25 | $227 | 31/03/2026 |
| Houthi strike on Israel by March 6, 2026? | No | 92.0¢ | 100¢ | +$22 | $278 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” by January 31? | No | 15.0¢ | 0¢ | +$4 | $44 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 4? | Yes | 3.0¢ | 0¢ | $-2 | $30 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 7? | Yes | 19.5¢ | 0¢ | $-22 | $546 | 31/03/2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 14.0¢ | 0¢ | $-60 | $222 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 15? | No | 12.1¢ | 0¢ | $-68 | $147 | 31/03/2026 |
| Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by January 31? | Yes | 30.5¢ | 0¢ | $-104 | $113 | 31/03/2026 |
| Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | No | 65.0¢ | 0¢ | $-254 | $1,021 | 31/03/2026 |
| Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by March 31? | Yes | 54.9¢ | 0¢ | $-256 | $256 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? | Yes | 14.3¢ | 0¢ | $-368 | $860 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | Yes | 79.0¢ | 100¢ | $-394 | $3,160 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | Yes | 18.2¢ | 0¢ | $-949 | $949 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | No | 19.5¢ | 0¢ | $-1,426 | $3,391 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15? | Yes | 5.5¢ | 0¢ | $-44 | $44 | 15/03/2026 |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 5, 2026? | Yes | 89.0¢ | 100¢ | +$44 | $356 | 10/03/2026 |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 10, 2026? | Yes | 70.0¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $23 | 10/03/2026 |
| Will Iran strike Bahrain in March? | Yes | 91.6¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $92 | 07/03/2026 |
| Will Iran strike Jordan in March? | Yes | 65.0¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | $130 | 07/03/2026 |
| Iran/Hezbollah strike on Cyprus by March 7? | Yes | 15.0¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | $30 | 07/03/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | Yes | 18.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1,671 | $3,150 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will Witkoff meet with Iranian officials by February 28? | No | 16.2¢ | 0¢ | $-38 | $130 | 28/02/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026? | No | 86.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $172 | 02/02/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026? | No | 90.0¢ | 100¢ | +$-0 | $270 | 01/02/2026 |
| Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 13, 2026? | No | 28.4¢ | 100¢ | +$540 | $247 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 14, 2026? | No | 26.9¢ | 100¢ | +$98 | $53 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 7, 2026? | Yes | 59.2¢ | 100¢ | +$41 | $59 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? | No | 73.3¢ | 100¢ | +$26 | $220 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 12, 2026? | No | 29.3¢ | 100¢ | +$23 | $81 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 9, 2026? | Yes | 20.0¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | $40 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by January 12, 2026? | No | 88.8¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $1,242 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | No | 93.9¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $657 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 31, 2026? | Yes | 48.1¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $67 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 4, 2026? | No | 52.3¢ | 0¢ | $-4 | $71 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by January 12, 2026? | Yes | 3.0¢ | 0¢ | $-13 | $42 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 5, 2026? | No | 42.2¢ | 0¢ | $-18 | $42 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 1, 2026? | Yes | 10.3¢ | 0¢ | $-27 | $31 | 31/01/2026 |