baran-ludoman

Other 53% +$46,539 $375,683 vol · 55 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	80¢	92¢	$-2,533	loss
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	Yes	21¢	30¢	+$2,762	win
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	No	22¢	34¢	+$3,923	win
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	Yes	41¢	44¢	+$126	win
US strike on Mexico by January 31?	No	92¢	100¢	+$36	win
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	64¢	56¢	$-294	loss
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	62¢	66¢	$-2,020	loss
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	74¢	81¢	$-3,053	loss
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	58¢	34¢	$-307	loss
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	86¢	100¢	$-1,327	loss

Geopolitics 55% +$24,514 $76,595 vol · 11 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	No	86¢	88¢	$-454	loss
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?	Yes	46¢	100¢	+$16,377	win
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?	No	17¢	0¢	+$5,431	win
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	29¢	12¢	$-3,371	loss
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	Yes	47¢	82¢	+$1,878	win
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	No	44¢	18¢	$-870	loss
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	42¢	84¢	+$701	win
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	Yes	38¢	100¢	+$7,161	win
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	No	17¢	0¢	$-2,041	loss
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	No	69¢	100¢	+$154	win

Crypto 43% +$20,537 $87,052 vol · 35 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April?	Yes	65¢	100¢	+$7	win
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April?	No	10¢	0¢	$-525	loss
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March?	Yes	13¢	0¢	$-698	loss
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March?	No	75¢	100¢	$-658	loss
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on March 31?	Yes	18¢	0¢	$-1,591	loss
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 on March 30?	Yes	30¢	0¢	$-600	loss
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February?	No	93¢	100¢	$-1,171	loss
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in February?	Yes	81¢	100¢	$-2,082	loss
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Up	59¢	100¢	+$958	win
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Up	58¢	100¢	+$818	win

Politics 53% +$13,820 $312,222 vol · 30 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	41¢	39¢	+$408	win
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	58¢	61¢	$-36	loss
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	Yes	39¢	100¢	+$7,381	win
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	No	6¢	0¢	$-6,006	loss
Will Donald Trump visit China in 2026?	No	7¢	5¢	$-19	loss
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	No	39¢	40¢	+$2,659	win
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	Yes	32¢	40¢	+$2,478	win
Will Jasmine Crockett be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?	No	77¢	100¢	$-711	loss
Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?	Yes	79¢	100¢	$-3,837	loss
Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by January 31, 2026?	Yes	91¢	100¢	+$1,454	win

Culture 62% +$7,080 $36,528 vol · 8 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	75¢	100¢	+$1,254	win
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	30¢	0¢	+$713	win
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	No	37¢	0¢	$-50	loss
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?	No	73¢	100¢	$-1,800	loss

Elections 52% +$4,201 $69,143 vol · 25 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	85¢	84¢	$-4,048	loss
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	47¢	46¢	$-444	loss
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	18¢	16¢	+$3,498	win
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	39¢	40¢	+$47	win
Will The Greens win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?	Yes	58¢	0¢	$-56	loss
Will The Greens win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?	No	35¢	100¢	$-21	loss
Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?	Yes	61¢	0¢	$-4,215	loss
Will Bhumjaithai Party (BJT) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?	No	50¢	0¢	$-923	loss
Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?	No	81¢	100¢	$-201	loss
Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?	Yes	9¢	0¢	+$934	win

Tech 100% +$1,380 $1,620 vol · 1 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?	No	54¢	100¢	+$1,380	win

Economy 50% +$974 $33,782 vol · 6 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
US recession by end of 2026?	Yes	23¢	26¢	+$6,324	win
US recession by end of 2026?	No	67¢	74¢	$-5,559	loss
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	No	11¢	0¢	+$234	win
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?	Yes	9¢	0¢	$-114	loss
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?	Yes	12¢	0¢	$-80	loss

Weather 50% $-167 $232 vol · 2 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 43-44°F on November 29?	No	40¢	0¢	$-182	loss
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 41-42°F on November 28?	No	66¢	100¢	+$15	win

Sports 38% $-4,611 $11,803 vol · 8 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Ricky Martin perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?	No	15¢	0¢	+$266	win
Will Lady Gaga perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?	Yes	79¢	100¢	$-1,501	loss
Maple Leafs vs. Capitals	Capitals	22¢	100¢	+$182	win
Maple Leafs vs. Capitals	Maple Leafs	71¢	0¢	$-4,089	loss
Packers vs. Lions: O/U 48.5	Under	71¢	0¢	$-2	loss
Packers vs. Lions	Lions	38¢	0¢	$-21	loss