Win rate
50.7%
36 W / 35 L
Total PnL
$9,719
realized $2,579 · unrealized $7,140
Portfolio
$7,140
volume $744,198
Predictions
91
5.0/day · avg $8,178
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 31/03/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | no |
Category breakdown
Other 65% +$3,932
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? | No | 13¢ | 12¢ | $-22 | loss |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | Yes | 19¢ | 18¢ | $-15 | loss |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Yes | 40¢ | 40¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Polymarket mindshare hit 75% by June 30? | Yes | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April? | Yes | 67¢ | 100¢ | +$485 | win |
| North Korea missile test/launch by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 88¢ | 100¢ | $-48 | loss |
| North Korea missile test/launch by April 30, 2026? | No | 9¢ | 0¢ | $-324 | loss |
| North Korea missile test/launch by April 15? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will "You, Me & Tuscany" score at least 50 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | No | 67¢ | 99¢ | +$722 | win |
Geopolitics 45% +$3,118
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes | 29¢ | 22¢ | +$14 | win |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | Yes | 35¢ | 77¢ | +$34 | win |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 24¢ | 75¢ | +$41 | win |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | Yes | 22¢ | 71¢ | +$126 | win |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31? | Yes | 4¢ | 2¢ | $-1 | loss |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | Yes | 21¢ | 28¢ | +$402 | win |
| Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 24¢ | 4¢ | +$6 | win |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | Yes | 72¢ | 100¢ | +$1,048 | win |
| US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026? | No | 5¢ | 0¢ | $-197 | loss |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | No | 1¢ | 0¢ | $-12 | loss |
Tech 100% +$2,313
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ChatGPT Outage by April 24? | Yes | 62¢ | 100¢ | +$87 | win |
Crypto 100% +$41
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Another crypto hack over $100m before 2027? | Yes | 79¢ | 100¢ | +$41 | win |
Weather 50% $-45
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 7? | Yes | 50¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 7? | No | 50¢ | 0¢ | $-82 | loss |
Politics 30% $-382
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | Yes | 44¢ | 60¢ | +$11 | win |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April? | Yes | 9¢ | 8¢ | $-50 | loss |
| Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026? | Yes | 22¢ | 0¢ | $-60 | loss |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 12, 2026? | Yes | 11¢ | 0¢ | $-21 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ChatGPT Outage by April 17? | Yes | 47.2¢ | 100¢ | +$180 | $160 | 17/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 15.0¢ | 100¢ | +$490 | $3,621 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026? | No | 9.8¢ | 0¢ | +$8 | $68 | 15/04/2026 |
| North Korea missile test/launch by April 15? | Yes | 99.3¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $99 | 15/04/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | No | 90.0¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | $44 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 6.2¢ | 2¢ | $-157 | $753 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 18.8¢ | 0¢ | $-143 | $276 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | Yes | 54.0¢ | 90¢ | +$33 | $49 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | Yes | 17.0¢ | 0¢ | $-225 | $2,935 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026? | Yes | 22.5¢ | 0¢ | $-60 | $512 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will "You, Me & Tuscany" score at least 50 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | Yes | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $51 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | No | 66.5¢ | 99¢ | +$722 | $1,464 | 12/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 12, 2026? | Yes | 11.0¢ | 0¢ | $-21 | $235 | 12/04/2026 |
| ChatGPT Outage by April 10? | Yes | 20.2¢ | 100¢ | +$2,047 | $518 | 10/04/2026 |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? | Yes | 16.2¢ | 0¢ | +$781 | $316 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | Yes | 40.0¢ | 0¢ | +$555 | $1,363 | 10/04/2026 |
| Menorca: Yaroslav Demin vs Jonas Forejtek | Yaroslav Demin | 11.4¢ | 0¢ | $-278 | $278 | 09/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? | Yes | 3.5¢ | 0¢ | +$207 | $428 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 7? | Yes | 50.0¢ | 100¢ | +$37 | $100 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 7? | Yes | 50.0¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | $50 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 7? | No | 50.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $50 | 07/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 0.9¢ | 0¢ | $-3 | $27 | 07/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 9.0¢ | 100¢ | $-32 | $288 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 7? | No | 50.0¢ | 0¢ | $-82 | $100 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | No | 47.2¢ | 9¢ | $-727 | $16,641 | 07/04/2026 |
| LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 | Nongshim Red Force | 54.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1,640 | $1,926 | 05/04/2026 |
| LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs DN SOOPers - Game 1 Winner | Nongshim Red Force | 49.0¢ | 100¢ | +$180 | $173 | 05/04/2026 |
| Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85%? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $304 | 31/03/2026 |
| Another crypto hack over $100m before 2027? | Yes | 78.9¢ | 100¢ | +$41 | $159 | 01/01/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | Yes | 28.0¢ | 100¢ | +$421 | $2,675 | 01/01/1970 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026? | Yes | 22.3¢ | 1¢ | $-230 | $445 | 18/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? | Yes | 71.0¢ | 86¢ | $-0 | $80 | 21/04/2026 |
| Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 21, 2026? | Yes | 33.0¢ | 8¢ | $-8 | $142 | 21/04/2026 |
| Will the US x Iran ceasefire be extended by April 14, 2026? | Yes | 20.0¢ | 0¢ | $-10 | $280 | 21/04/2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | Yes | 23.0¢ | 42¢ | $-127 | $1,498 | 22/04/2026 |
| ChatGPT Outage by April 24? | Yes | 62.2¢ | 100¢ | +$87 | $143 | 24/04/2026 |
| Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 5.6¢ | 1¢ | $-227 | $709 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 12.8¢ | 6¢ | $-86 | $1,487 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will UAE strike Iran by April 30? | Yes | 12.1¢ | 6¢ | +$735 | $1,832 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April? | Yes | 8.8¢ | 8¢ | $-50 | $328 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30? | Yes | 6.6¢ | 5¢ | $-31 | $277 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will UK strike Iran by April 30? | Yes | 3.4¢ | 2¢ | $-27 | $58 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Kuwait strike Iran by April 30? | Yes | 2.8¢ | 2¢ | $-8 | $158 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? | Yes | 46.7¢ | 93¢ | +$1,645 | $8,834 | 30/04/2026 |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 8.9¢ | 63¢ | +$160 | $39 | 30/04/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | Yes | 72.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1,048 | $11,398 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April? | Yes | 67.0¢ | 100¢ | +$485 | $985 | 30/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | Yes | 44.0¢ | 60¢ | +$11 | $3,021 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 23.5¢ | 4¢ | +$6 | $223 | 30/04/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | No | 1.0¢ | 0¢ | $-12 | $581 | 30/04/2026 |