Win rate
68.6%
1800 W / 823 L
Total PnL
$-12,644
realized $-13,933 · unrealized $1,289
Portfolio
$1,289
volume $3,530,572
Predictions
2,948
49.9/day · avg $1,198
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 07/02/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Weather 100% +$2
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: St. John's Red Storm (-3.5) | St. Johns Red Storm | 51¢ | 0¢ | +$-0 | — |
| Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 15? | Yes | 79¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
Esports 75% $-33
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Passion UA (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B | FURIA | 84¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| Counter-Strike: Astralis vs FUT Esports (BO5) - PGL Bucharest Playoffs | FUT Esports | 56¢ | 100¢ | $-60 | loss |
| Counter-Strike: MIBR vs 3DMAX (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Playoffs | MIBR | 40¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | win |
| Counter-Strike: B8 vs Legacy (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage | Legacy | 58¢ | 0¢ | +$40 | win |
| Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Wildcard (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage | FOKUS | 73¢ | 0¢ | +$2 | win |
| Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs Voca (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage | Voca | 40¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | win |
| Counter-Strike: B8 vs 3DMAX (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage | B8 | 78¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | loss |
| Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Playoffs | Vitality | 83¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Dota 2: MOUZ vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham Playoffs | Xtreme Gaming | 51¢ | 100¢ | +$-0 | — |
Tech 59% $-65
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026? | No | 74¢ | 74¢ | $-1 | loss |
| OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027? | No | 92¢ | 72¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 49¢ | 62¢ | +$2 | win |
| OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July? | No | 94¢ | 96¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Nvidia have a #1 AI model by June 30? | No | 99¢ | 95¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day? | No | 96¢ | 92¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Tesla and xAI merger officially announced by June 30? | No | 91¢ | 94¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | No | 98¢ | 96¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings? | No | 58¢ | 62¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on April 15? | Down | 36¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | — |
Culture 63% $-95
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? | No | 68¢ | 47¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will Michael have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? | No | 96¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Faker win a Finals MVP Award at an international event in 2026? | No | 86¢ | 82¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? | Yes | 76¢ | 78¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Olivia Rodrigo announce a new album by April 30? | Yes | 77¢ | 100¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 170m and 180m? | No | 84¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 200m? | Yes | 17¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 80m and 85m? | Yes | 83¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 80m and 85m? | No | 82¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will "One Piece: Season 2" be the top global Netflix show this week? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Economy 43% $-130
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US recession by end of 2026? | Yes | 22¢ | 26¢ | $-5 | loss |
| US recession by end of 2026? | No | 73¢ | 74¢ | $-15 | loss |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? | No | 94¢ | 97¢ | $-2 | loss |
| No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after April 2026 meeting? | Yes | 96¢ | 96¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | No | 11¢ | 1¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting? | Yes | 8¢ | 0¢ | +$2 | win |
| Houthis successfully target shipping by March 31? | Yes | 13¢ | 0¢ | $-7 | loss |
| Houthis successfully target shipping by March 31? | No | 89¢ | 100¢ | $-11 | loss |
| No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after March 2026 meeting? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | $-44 | loss |
Mentions 76% $-163
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Kanye tweet again by March 31? | No | 61¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? | No | 90¢ | 100¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will Khamenei post 0-19 posts from March 17 to March 24, 2026? | Yes | 83¢ | 0¢ | $-83 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? | Yes | 10¢ | 0¢ | $-7 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? | No | 78¢ | 0¢ | $-17 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026? | No | 44¢ | 100¢ | $-22 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026? | Yes | 46¢ | 0¢ | $-45 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? | Yes | 29¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? | No | 91¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | loss |
Finance 48% $-199
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T | Yes | 15¢ | 16¢ | +$2 | win |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T | No | 85¢ | 84¢ | $-18 | loss |
| Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? | Yes | 87¢ | 90¢ | +$0 | — |
| Cerebras IPO before 2027? | Yes | 90¢ | 92¢ | $-13 | loss |
| Fed rate hike in 2026? | No | 76¢ | 86¢ | +$9 | win |
| Fed rate hike in 2026? | Yes | 18¢ | 14¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026? | Yes | 85¢ | 82¢ | $-26 | loss |
| Aaron Taylor-Johnson announced as next James Bond? | No | 93¢ | 96¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? | No | 53¢ | 30¢ | $-48 | loss |
| Will US Bancorp (USB) beat quarterly earnings? | Yes | 93¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
Elections 43% $-824
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 17¢ | 17¢ | +$21 | win |
| Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 97¢ | 98¢ | $-58 | loss |
| Trump declares election interference national emergency? | No | 69¢ | 81¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Trump nationalize elections? | No | 74¢ | 78¢ | +$1 | win |
| Trump declares election interference national emergency? | Yes | 32¢ | 19¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | No | 51¢ | 44¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? | No | 91¢ | 92¢ | +$1 | win |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | No | 63¢ | 66¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 50¢ | 44¢ | +$-0 | — |
| Will the Republican Party win the CA-43 House seat? | No | 92¢ | 94¢ | +$0 | — |
Geopolitics 58% $-971
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? | No | 86¢ | 84¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027? | No | 80¢ | 84¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | No | 40¢ | 0¢ | $-235 | loss |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 77¢ | 82¢ | +$9 | win |
| Will Hassan Khomeini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | Yes | 4¢ | 0¢ | $-9 | loss |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes | 60¢ | 30¢ | +$7 | win |
| Iran Nuke before 2027? | No | 86¢ | 90¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026? | No | 88¢ | 91¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026? | No | 81¢ | 90¢ | +$0 | — |
Politics 46% $-1,220
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 27¢ | 28¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 21¢ | 21¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 91¢ | 92¢ | $-127 | loss |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | No | 79¢ | 79¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? | Yes | 63¢ | 58¢ | $-17 | loss |
| Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $-10 | loss |
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | $-163 | loss |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | No | 81¢ | 84¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2026? | Yes | 96¢ | 94¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | 91¢ | 92¢ | +$0 | win |
Sports 38% $-1,935
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? | No | 95¢ | 95¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will inflation reach more than 3.5% in 2026? | Yes | 88¢ | 86¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will inflation reach more than 6% in 2026? | No | 86¢ | 86¢ | $-24 | loss |
| Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 98¢ | 99¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 53¢ | 46¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 69¢ | 54¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | No | 85¢ | 85¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | Yes | 94¢ | 95¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | No | 95¢ | 99¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Washington Nationals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 58¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | — |
Other 49% $-3,141
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X? | No | 65¢ | 68¢ | $-8 | loss |
| Maduro guilty of all counts? | No | 64¢ | 78¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? | Yes | 52¢ | 60¢ | $-13 | loss |
| Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch? | Yes | 51¢ | 0¢ | $-77 | loss |
| Opinion FDV above $400M one day after launch? | No | 78¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Backpack FDV above $100M one day after launch? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will United Stables hit $3B in 2026? | Yes | 48¢ | 20¢ | $-7 | loss |
| Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? | Yes | 93¢ | 64¢ | $-30 | loss |
| Will the DFM Real Estate Index hit 14,000 in 2026? | No | 62¢ | 28¢ | $-12 | loss |
| Based FDV above $100M one day after launch? | Yes | 79¢ | 100¢ | $-17 | loss |
Crypto 86% $-5,191
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethereum flipped in 2026? | No | 39¢ | 56¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 95¢ | 96¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? | $60k | 69¢ | 28¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Gold have the best performance in 2026? | No | 31¢ | 42¢ | +$1 | win |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | Yes | 22¢ | 40¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026? | No | 95¢ | 98¢ | $-7 | loss |
| Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Terence Atmane vs Ethan Quinn | Ethan Quinn | 46¢ | 0¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 March 30-April 5? | No | 84¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will MicroStrategy announce holding 740k+ BTC by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 87¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in March? | Yes | 62¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude 4.7 released by April 17? | No | 10.3¢ | 0¢ | +$8 | $62 | 17/04/2026 |
| Trump announces tariff for Iran military cooperation by April 17? | No | 89.0¢ | 99¢ | +$3 | $279 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the top AI model on April 17, 2026 (Style Control On)? | Yes | 89.6¢ | 94¢ | +$0 | $179 | 17/04/2026 |
| Claude 4.7 released by April 17? | Yes | 87.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $261 | 17/04/2026 |
| Blues vs. Utah | Utah | 49.0¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | $490 | 17/04/2026 |
| Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Royal Challengers Bangalore | Royal Challengers Bangalore | 51.0¢ | 0¢ | $-120 | $3,570 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Galatasaray reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? | No | 69.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $34 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will US Bancorp (USB) beat quarterly earnings? | Yes | 93.0¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | $93 | 16/04/2026 |
| Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Angels | Los Angeles Angels | 41.0¢ | 0¢ | +$20 | $2,050 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 22.0¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $242 | 15/04/2026 |
| Houthi military action against Israel by April 15, 2026? | No | 67.0¢ | 0¢ | +$7 | $291 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026? | No | 91.2¢ | 98¢ | +$4 | $1,869 | 15/04/2026 |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15? | Yes | 5.2¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | $21 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? | No | 84.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $406 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? | No | 87.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $56 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | Yes | 12.0¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | $288 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | No | 87.0¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | $4,215 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 7.0¢ | 2¢ | +$0 | $21 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | Yes | 41.0¢ | 87¢ | +$0 | $1,123 | 15/04/2026 |
| Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on April 15? | Down | 36.0¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | $36 | 15/04/2026 |
| Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Cameron Norrie vs Alex de Minaur | Alex de Minaur | 69.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $2,070 | 15/04/2026 |
| Penguins vs. Blues | Penguins | 43.0¢ | 0¢ | +$-0 | $1,720 | 15/04/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | No | 97.0¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | $2,824 | 15/04/2026 |
| Houthi military action against Israel by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 27.0¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | $27 | 15/04/2026 |
| QQQ (QQQ) Up or Down on April 15? | Down | 49.0¢ | 0¢ | $-2 | $49 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | No | 93.0¢ | 100¢ | $-7 | $1,364 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel military action against Fordow nuclear facility by April 15? | No | 93.3¢ | 100¢ | $-7 | $763 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? | No | 81.0¢ | 100¢ | $-9 | $446 | 15/04/2026 |
| Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on April 15? | Up | 48.0¢ | 0¢ | $-10 | $48 | 15/04/2026 |
| Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on April 15? | Up | 49.0¢ | 100¢ | $-10 | $49 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | No | 53.4¢ | 12¢ | $-11 | $2,194 | 15/04/2026 |
| Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on April 15? | Up | 56.0¢ | 100¢ | $-20 | $56 | 15/04/2026 |
| Magic vs. 76ers: O/U 220.5 | Under | 40.0¢ | 100¢ | $-20 | $800 | 15/04/2026 |
| EWY (EWY) Up or Down on April 15? | Up | 47.0¢ | 0¢ | $-24 | $47 | 15/04/2026 |
| Spread: Ducks (-1.5) | Wild | 69.0¢ | 100¢ | $-30 | $690 | 15/04/2026 |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15? | No | 94.5¢ | 100¢ | $-36 | $3,101 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 95.3¢ | 100¢ | $-49 | $6,854 | 15/04/2026 |
| Stars vs. Sabres | Sabres | 46.0¢ | 0¢ | $-60 | $920 | 15/04/2026 |
| Kings vs. Canucks | Kings | 63.0¢ | 0¢ | $-102 | $1,260 | 15/04/2026 |
| Rangers vs. Lightning | Rangers | 46.7¢ | 100¢ | $-140 | $1,400 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? | No | 93.0¢ | 0¢ | $-191 | $995 | 15/04/2026 |
| Houston Astros vs. Colorado Rockies | Colorado Rockies | 77.0¢ | 100¢ | +$56 | $770 | 14/04/2026 |
| Upper Austria Ladies Linz: Julia Grabher vs Alexandra Eala | Alexandra Eala | 87.0¢ | 100¢ | +$26 | $2,818 | 14/04/2026 |
| Upper Austria Ladies Linz: Karolina Pliskova vs Aliaksandra Sasnovich | Karolina Pliskova | 81.0¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | $807 | 14/04/2026 |
| Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Terence Atmane vs Ethan Quinn | Ethan Quinn | 46.0¢ | 0¢ | +$10 | $460 | 14/04/2026 |
| Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Passion UA (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B | FURIA | 84.0¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $888 | 14/04/2026 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs. New York Mets | New York Mets | 75.0¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $750 | 14/04/2026 |
| Wuning: Kody Pearson vs Zhao Zhao | Kody Pearson | 69.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $43 | 14/04/2026 |
| Hurricanes vs. Islanders | Hurricanes | 40.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $400 | 14/04/2026 |
| Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5 | Under | 51.0¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | $491 | 14/04/2026 |