Win rate
59.0%
170 W / 118 L
Total PnL
$1,103
realized $503 · unrealized $600
Portfolio
$600
volume $61,542
Predictions
1,078
48.4/day · avg $57
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 24/03/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Crypto 63% +$1,431
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XRP Up or Down - April 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET | Down | 68¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET | Down | 46¢ | 0¢ | $-31 | loss |
| XRP Up or Down - April 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET | Down | 61¢ | 100¢ | +$32 | win |
| XRP Up or Down - April 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET | Up | 62¢ | 100¢ | +$22 | win |
| XRP Up or Down - April 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET | Down | 69¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | win |
| XRP Up or Down - April 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET | Down | 69¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
| XRP Up or Down - April 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET | Up | 46¢ | 0¢ | $-50 | loss |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET | Down | 23¢ | 100¢ | +$164 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET | Down | 29¢ | 100¢ | +$123 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET | Down | 23¢ | 100¢ | +$105 | win |
Elections 60% +$17
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 50¢ | 17¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 50¢ | 83¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? | No | 94¢ | 92¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 67¢ | 92¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will Juan Pablo Velasco win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election? | Yes | 63¢ | 90¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will Juntos por el Perú (JP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Chamber of Deputies election? | No | 85¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Our Homeland Movement (Mi Hazánk) win at least one seat in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 28¢ | 1¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
Mentions 100% +$15
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? | No | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
Tech 0% $-1
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam? | No | 64¢ | 60¢ | $-1 | loss |
Finance 0% $-8
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthropic IPO before 2027? | No | 53¢ | 48¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Callum Turner announced as next James Bond? | No | 83¢ | 81¢ | $-3 | loss |
Sports 50% $-14
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 44¢ | 39¢ | +$3 | win |
| New York Yankees vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5 | Under | 49¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Hawks vs. Pistons | Hawks | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Nuggets vs. Suns | Suns | 41¢ | 0¢ | $-22 | loss |
Other 57% $-40
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X? | Yes | 47¢ | 32¢ | $-34 | loss |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? | No | 87¢ | 88¢ | +$1 | win |
| Romanian PM Bolojan out by December 31? | No | 47¢ | 36¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? | No | 56¢ | 64¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by May 31? | No | 65¢ | 86¢ | +$11 | win |
| Tulsi Gabbard out by April 30? | Yes | 24¢ | 5¢ | $-22 | loss |
| AWS service disrupted by April 30? | No | 62¢ | 72¢ | +$6 | win |
Geopolitics 29% $-265
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | No | 76¢ | 74¢ | $-3 | loss |
| US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | No | 62¢ | 14¢ | $-8 | loss |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 79¢ | 84¢ | $-11 | loss |
| Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30? | No | 72¢ | 72¢ | $-7 | loss |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | No | 73¢ | 22¢ | $-7 | loss |
| Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? | No | 88¢ | 84¢ | $-8 | loss |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? | No | 62¢ | 7¢ | $-9 | loss |
| Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 6, 2026? | No | 24¢ | 0¢ | $-22 | loss |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | No | 83¢ | 0¢ | $-211 | loss |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? | No | 73¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
Politics 22% $-325
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? | No | 35¢ | 36¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Will Trump meet with Pope Leo XIV in 2026? | No | 80¢ | 72¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will Donald Trump visit Arizona in 2026? | No | 22¢ | 0¢ | $-252 | loss |
| Will Trump and Putin not meet? | Yes | 86¢ | 75¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31? | No | 70¢ | 69¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Joe Biden by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Trump talk to Friedrich Merz in April? | No | 9¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | loss |
| Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during No Tax on Tips Roundtable? | No | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Trump say "Transgender" during Cabinet meeting on March 26? | Yes | 72¢ | 0¢ | $-37 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XRP Up or Down - April 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET | Down | 67.9¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $25 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during No Tax on Tips Roundtable? | No | 93.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $38 | 16/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET | Down | 45.5¢ | 0¢ | $-31 | $31 | 16/04/2026 |
| XRP Up or Down - April 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET | Down | 61.0¢ | 100¢ | +$32 | $50 | 15/04/2026 |
| XRP Up or Down - April 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET | Up | 62.0¢ | 100¢ | +$22 | $35 | 15/04/2026 |
| XRP Up or Down - April 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET | Down | 68.7¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | $34 | 15/04/2026 |
| XRP Up or Down - April 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET | Down | 69.1¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $26 | 15/04/2026 |
| XRP Up or Down - April 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET | Up | 46.0¢ | 0¢ | $-50 | $50 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | No | 83.2¢ | 0¢ | $-211 | $211 | 15/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET | Down | 23.3¢ | 100¢ | +$164 | $50 | 14/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET | Down | 28.8¢ | 100¢ | +$123 | $50 | 14/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET | Down | 23.5¢ | 100¢ | +$105 | $32 | 14/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET | Down | 45.9¢ | 100¢ | +$59 | $50 | 14/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET | Down | 49.1¢ | 100¢ | +$52 | $50 | 14/04/2026 |
| Solana Up or Down - April 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET | Up | 52.0¢ | 100¢ | +$46 | $50 | 14/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET | Down | 52.4¢ | 100¢ | +$33 | $37 | 14/04/2026 |
| XRP Up or Down - April 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET | Up | 66.4¢ | 100¢ | +$25 | $50 | 14/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET | Down | 68.1¢ | 100¢ | +$23 | $50 | 14/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET | Down | 72.3¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $29 | 14/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET | Down | 70.3¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $29 | 14/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET | Down | 35.8¢ | 0¢ | $-21 | $21 | 14/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET | Down | 35.3¢ | 0¢ | $-50 | $50 | 14/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET | Down | 24.9¢ | 0¢ | $-50 | $50 | 14/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET | Down | 29.4¢ | 0¢ | $-50 | $50 | 14/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET | Down | 37.1¢ | 0¢ | $-50 | $50 | 14/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET | Down | 53.1¢ | 0¢ | $-50 | $50 | 14/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET | Down | 29.8¢ | 0¢ | $-50 | $50 | 14/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET | Down | 42.0¢ | 0¢ | $-50 | $50 | 14/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET | Up | 53.5¢ | 100¢ | +$31 | $36 | 13/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET | Up | 51.3¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | $21 | 13/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET | Up | 73.0¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $21 | 13/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET | Up | 50.0¢ | 0¢ | $-34 | $34 | 13/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET | Up | 66.3¢ | 0¢ | $-50 | $50 | 13/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET | Up | 24.5¢ | 100¢ | +$139 | $45 | 12/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET | Up | 38.9¢ | 100¢ | +$74 | $47 | 12/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET | Down | 40.3¢ | 100¢ | +$74 | $50 | 12/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET | Up | 44.4¢ | 100¢ | +$63 | $50 | 12/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET | Up | 45.6¢ | 100¢ | +$60 | $50 | 12/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET | Up | 47.8¢ | 100¢ | +$54 | $49 | 12/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 2PM ET | Down | 52.8¢ | 100¢ | +$45 | $50 | 12/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET | Up | 53.8¢ | 100¢ | +$42 | $49 | 12/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 4PM ET | Up | 43.7¢ | 100¢ | +$41 | $33 | 12/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET | Up | 55.1¢ | 100¢ | +$41 | $50 | 12/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET | Up | 46.2¢ | 100¢ | +$38 | $33 | 12/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET | Up | 56.8¢ | 100¢ | +$38 | $50 | 12/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET | Up | 56.2¢ | 100¢ | +$32 | $41 | 12/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET | Up | 61.5¢ | 100¢ | +$31 | $50 | 12/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET | Down | 43.8¢ | 100¢ | +$30 | $24 | 12/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET | Down | 62.5¢ | 100¢ | +$30 | $50 | 12/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET | Up | 57.5¢ | 100¢ | +$27 | $36 | 12/04/2026 |