Win rate
69.7%
53 W / 23 L
Total PnL
$8,031
realized $3,885 · unrealized $4,146
Portfolio
$4,146
volume $273,835
Predictions
75
1.2/day · avg $3,651
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 07/10/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 73% +$6,741
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | Yes | 37¢ | 100¢ | +$4,607 | win |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 12, 2026? | Yes | 11¢ | 0¢ | $-57 | loss |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | No | 86¢ | 90¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | Yes | 54¢ | 6¢ | $-213 | loss |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | No | 73¢ | 97¢ | +$212 | win |
| Military action against Iran continues through April 30, 2026? | Yes | 70¢ | 0¢ | $-1,655 | loss |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | No | 94¢ | 8¢ | +$20 | win |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? | No | 88¢ | 100¢ | +$190 | win |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | Yes | 78¢ | 100¢ | +$124 | win |
| Military action against Iran continues through March 31, 2026? | Yes | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$75 | win |
Sports 100% +$1,682
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? | No | 88¢ | 100¢ | +$1,660 | win |
| Will Anthony Joshua win his boxing match against Jake Paul? | Yes | 84¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | win |
Finance 100% +$161
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 2? | Down | 86¢ | 100¢ | +$161 | win |
Economy 100% +$151
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? | Yes | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$151 | win |
Other 65% +$116
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30? | Yes | 21¢ | 6¢ | $-400 | loss |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | No | 75¢ | 56¢ | $-780 | loss |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$901 | win |
| Will gas hit (High) $4.25 by March 31? | Yes | 39¢ | 0¢ | $-39 | loss |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? | Yes | 89¢ | 100¢ | $-901 | loss |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | No | 25¢ | 0¢ | $-100 | loss |
| Another US strike on Venezuela on January 5? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
Elections 0% $-50
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| French election called by December 31? | Yes | 50¢ | 0¢ | $-50 | loss |
Politics 40% $-731
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? | No | 90¢ | 100¢ | $-293 | loss |
| Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve on January 30, 2026? | Yes | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$36 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15? | No | 93.9¢ | 100¢ | +$901 | $8,833 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | No | 94.0¢ | 8¢ | +$20 | $2,793 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 89.6¢ | 100¢ | $-137 | $8,972 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | No | 95.8¢ | 7¢ | +$76 | $2,712 | 07/04/2026 |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? | No | 84.7¢ | 100¢ | +$944 | $6,584 | 31/03/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? | No | 87.0¢ | 100¢ | +$395 | $3,375 | 31/03/2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? | No | 88.0¢ | 100¢ | +$190 | $2,438 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will gas hit (High) $3.75 by March 31? | Yes | 87.0¢ | 100¢ | +$182 | $1,218 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? | No | 36.0¢ | 100¢ | +$178 | $108 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will gas hit (High) $4.00 by March 31? | Yes | 68.9¢ | 100¢ | +$125 | $277 | 31/03/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | Yes | 78.0¢ | 100¢ | +$124 | $890 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 7? | No | 81.0¢ | 100¢ | +$114 | $519 | 31/03/2026 |
| Military action against Iran continues through March 31, 2026? | Yes | 95.0¢ | 100¢ | +$75 | $1,425 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will gas hit (High) $3.50 by March 31? | Yes | 94.2¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $193 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will gas hit (High) $4.50 by March 31? | Yes | 32.9¢ | 0¢ | $-12 | $35 | 31/03/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | No | 33.0¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | $165 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will gas hit (High) $4.25 by March 31? | Yes | 39.0¢ | 0¢ | $-39 | $64 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will another country strike Iran by March 31? | Yes | 60.0¢ | 0¢ | $-228 | $360 | 31/03/2026 |
| Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 28.2¢ | 0¢ | $-236 | $288 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? | No | 90.0¢ | 100¢ | $-293 | $6,086 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? | Yes | 88.7¢ | 100¢ | $-901 | $2,334 | 31/03/2026 |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30? | No | 81.3¢ | 80¢ | +$175 | $2,699 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 1, 2026? | Yes | 98.7¢ | 100¢ | +$49 | $3,138 | 10/03/2026 |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 2? | Down | 86.0¢ | 100¢ | +$161 | $2,150 | 02/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 14? | No | 82.3¢ | 100¢ | +$466 | $2,470 | 01/03/2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026? | No | 91.0¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $1,586 | 28/02/2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? | No | 93.9¢ | 100¢ | +$287 | $6,357 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? | No | 93.0¢ | 100¢ | +$70 | $930 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve on January 30, 2026? | Yes | 95.6¢ | 100¢ | +$36 | $802 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026? | No | 94.0¢ | 100¢ | +$30 | $470 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will the US next strike Iran on January 20, 2026 (ET)? | No | 98.8¢ | 100¢ | +$26 | $2,307 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will the US next strike Iran on January 21, 2026 (ET)? | No | 98.9¢ | 100¢ | +$24 | $2,333 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will the US next strike Iran on January 19, 2026 (ET)? | No | 98.9¢ | 100¢ | +$23 | $2,284 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will the US next strike Iran on January 26, 2026 (ET)? | No | 98.5¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $800 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will the US next strike Iran on January 22, 2026 (ET)? | No | 98.3¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $590 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will the US next strike Iran on January 18, 2026 (ET)? | No | 99.1¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $1,000 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will the US next strike Iran on January 27, 2026 (ET)? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $811 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? | Yes | 9.0¢ | 0¢ | $-46 | $46 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? | Yes | 5.0¢ | 0¢ | $-50 | $50 | 31/01/2026 |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | No | 25.0¢ | 0¢ | $-100 | $100 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026? | Yes | 5.0¢ | 0¢ | $-101 | $101 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? | Yes | 13.0¢ | 0¢ | $-107 | $201 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? | Yes | 49.1¢ | 0¢ | $-117 | $871 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | Yes | 40.0¢ | 0¢ | $-123 | $328 | 31/01/2026 |
| Israel strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? | No | 97.5¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | $780 | 23/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026? | No | 97.0¢ | 100¢ | +$31 | $1,040 | 18/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026? | No | 96.0¢ | 100¢ | +$40 | $960 | 17/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026? | No | 96.0¢ | 100¢ | +$40 | $960 | 15/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026? | Yes | 33.0¢ | 0¢ | +$25 | $165 | 15/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? | No | 80.8¢ | 100¢ | +$240 | $1,010 | 14/01/2026 |