Win rate
81.3%
61 W / 14 L
Total PnL
$12,802
realized $-5,021 · unrealized $17,822
Portfolio
$17,822
volume $340,585
Predictions
109
5.1/day · avg $3,125
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 26/03/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 86% +$15,621
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | Yes | 59¢ | 81¢ | +$341 | win |
| US x Iran meeting by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 63¢ | 100¢ | +$130 | win |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? | Yes | 95¢ | 100¢ | $-7 | loss |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 25¢ | 56¢ | +$369 | win |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | Yes | 29¢ | 72¢ | +$89 | win |
| US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? | Yes | 47¢ | 100¢ | +$52 | win |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | No | 10¢ | 0¢ | $-1,382 | loss |
| Will Iran successfully target shipping on April 3, 2026? | No | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? | Yes | 89¢ | 100¢ | +$63 | win |
| Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 9, 2026? | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
Economy 100% +$180
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houthis successfully target shipping by March 31? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
Other 60% $-547
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Yes | 53¢ | 34¢ | $-241 | loss |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | No | 77¢ | 66¢ | $-194 | loss |
| FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires? | No | 60¢ | 8¢ | $-177 | loss |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15? | No | 87¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
| U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 15? | No | 89¢ | 100¢ | +$86 | win |
| DeepSeek V4 released by April 15? | No | 54¢ | 100¢ | +$84 | win |
| Will 45 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 30-April 5? | No | 24¢ | 0¢ | $-128 | loss |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? | No | 89¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| US strikes Yemen by March 31, 2026? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
Politics 73% $-2,369
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 15, 2026? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$47 | win |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 62¢ | 68¢ | +$22 | win |
| Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 21, 2026? | No | 90¢ | 93¢ | +$9 | win |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026? | No | 88¢ | 99¢ | +$90 | win |
| Will Trump talk to Mark Rutte in March? | No | 41¢ | 100¢ | $-20 | loss |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | No | 66.7¢ | 100¢ | +$7,648 | $15,160 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026? | No | 87.3¢ | 100¢ | +$555 | $7,609 | 15/04/2026 |
| Houthis successfully target shipping by April 15? | No | 91.3¢ | 100¢ | +$130 | $1,103 | 15/04/2026 |
| U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 15? | No | 89.4¢ | 100¢ | +$86 | $984 | 15/04/2026 |
| DeepSeek V4 released by April 15? | No | 54.0¢ | 100¢ | +$84 | $108 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | No | 87.5¢ | 0¢ | +$15 | $350 | 15/04/2026 |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15? | No | 86.8¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $3,323 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | No | 12.7¢ | 0¢ | $-447 | $1,341 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026? | No | 93.7¢ | 98¢ | +$1,488 | $11,398 | 15/04/2026 |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? | No | 82.8¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $46 | 10/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? | No | 92.0¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $92 | 07/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 97.4¢ | 0¢ | $-80 | $1,125 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will 45 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 30-April 5? | No | 23.6¢ | 0¢ | $-128 | $190 | 05/04/2026 |
| Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March? | No | 22.7¢ | 100¢ | +$522 | $347 | 31/03/2026 |
| Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026? | No | 85.6¢ | 100¢ | +$47 | $280 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 31, 2026? | No | 71.3¢ | 100¢ | +$23 | $58 | 31/03/2026 |
| Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026? | No | 87.3¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | $139 | 31/03/2026 |
| Military action against Iran ends by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 88.0¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $88 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 94.9¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $195 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel strike 3 countries in March 2026? | Yes | 85.0¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $69 | 31/03/2026 |
| Houthis successfully target shipping by March 31? | No | 94.9¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $106 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? | No | 88.9¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $41 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump talk to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in March? | No | 90.2¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $44 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? | No | 94.9¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $106 | 31/03/2026 |
| US strikes Yemen by March 31, 2026? | No | 97.2¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $68 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? | No | 98.2¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $98 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump talk to Mark Rutte in March? | No | 40.6¢ | 100¢ | $-20 | $43 | 31/03/2026 |
| Houthi strike on Israel by April 15, 2026? | No | 22.0¢ | 0¢ | $-200 | $222 | 31/03/2026 |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30? | No | 77.0¢ | 80¢ | +$3 | $219 | 31/03/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | Yes | 29.0¢ | 100¢ | +$77 | $32 | 01/01/1970 |
| Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? | No | 95.9¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $58 | 01/01/1970 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026? | No | 83.2¢ | 97¢ | +$1,704 | $11,176 | 18/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026? | No | 88.1¢ | 99¢ | +$90 | $954 | 18/04/2026 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026? | No | 70.0¢ | 81¢ | +$1,225 | $7,364 | 19/04/2026 |
| FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires? | No | 59.6¢ | 8¢ | $-177 | $204 | 19/04/2026 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026? | No | 34.7¢ | 42¢ | +$207 | $1,129 | 20/04/2026 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026? | No | 27.2¢ | 37¢ | +$69 | $192 | 21/04/2026 |
| Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 21, 2026? | No | 89.7¢ | 93¢ | +$9 | $256 | 21/04/2026 |
| Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026? | No | 82.2¢ | 100¢ | +$1,343 | $12,248 | 21/04/2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | No | 77.2¢ | 66¢ | $-194 | $1,277 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 17, 2026? | No | 87.0¢ | 97¢ | $-1,758 | $12,209 | 30/04/2026 |
| Israel strike on Yemen by April 30, 2026? | No | 78.8¢ | 93¢ | +$223 | $4,890 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 61.8¢ | 68¢ | +$22 | $198 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? | Yes | 75.0¢ | 77¢ | +$4 | $150 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026? | No | 84.3¢ | 78¢ | $-1,293 | $2,737 | 30/04/2026 |
| Houthis successfully target shipping by April 30? | No | 67.6¢ | 90¢ | +$43 | $128 | 30/04/2026 |
| Houthi military action against Israel by April 30, 2026? | No | 81.2¢ | 90¢ | +$7 | $63 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 15, 2026? | No | 94.9¢ | 99¢ | +$38 | $1,066 | 30/04/2026 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 17, 2026? | No | 86.0¢ | 100¢ | +$181 | $1,861 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026? | No | 82.6¢ | 94¢ | +$159 | $960 | 30/04/2026 |