simpleman

Economy 69% +$57,395 $1,432,592 vol · 26 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	36¢	4¢	$-44	loss
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	98¢	99¢	+$1,025	win
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?	Yes	42¢	0¢	+$1	win
Will US GDP growth in 2025 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?	Yes	9¢	100¢	+$94	win
Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be greater than 3.5%?	No	54¢	100¢	+$72	win
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	Yes	87¢	100¢	+$14,665	win
Will the December 2025 unemployment rate be 4.6%?	Yes	27¢	0¢	$-27	loss
Next BLS jobs report during government shutdown?	No	91¢	100¢	+$37	win
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?	Yes	93¢	100¢	+$5,401	win
Will the November 2025 unemployment rate be 4.4%?	Yes	38¢	0¢	$-100	loss

Other 66% +$9,634 $640,132 vol · 293 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?	No	33¢	36¢	+$2	win
US strike on Mexico by January 31?	No	93¢	100¢	+$165	win
Zohran Mamdani out as mayor of NYC before 2027?	No	90¢	92¢	+$13	win
Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau engaged by end of 2026?	No	74¢	76¢	+$6	win
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	No	81¢	84¢	$-387	loss
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	17¢	4¢	$-31	loss
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	54¢	24¢	$-84	loss
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?	Yes	29¢	28¢	$-1	loss
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	65¢	62¢	+$41	win
Liberal majority in Canadian Parliament by June 30?	No	29¢	0¢	+$89	win

Geopolitics 67% +$2,422 $130,919 vol · 73 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?	Yes	76¢	100¢	+$23	win
US military draft authorized in 2026?	No	90¢	90¢	$-9	loss
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	No	84¢	0¢	$-13	loss
US x Iran meeting by June 30, 2026?	Yes	73¢	100¢	+$72	win
Ukraine coup attempt by June 30?	No	87¢	94¢	+$15	win
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	No	74¢	95¢	+$157	win
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	No	60¢	69¢	+$39	win
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?	No	98¢	100¢	+$605	win
Iran strike on US military by January 31?	Yes	24¢	0¢	+$2	win
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?	Yes	54¢	0¢	$-49	loss

Finance 60% +$541 $11,654 vol · 15 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	90¢	88¢	$-5	loss
Will the 10-year treasury yield hit 4.4% by March 31?	No	55¢	0¢	$-52	loss
Will Powell say "Stock Market" during January press conference?	Yes	28¢	0¢	$-25	loss
S&P 500 all time high by December 31?	Yes	22¢	100¢	+$108	win
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4% in 2025?	Yes	51¢	100¢	+$11	win
Fed rate hike in 2025?	No	91¢	100¢	+$368	win
Pam Bondi out as Attorney General in July?	No	87¢	100¢	+$11	win
10-year Treasury yield >4.4% Friday?	No	24¢	100¢	+$28	win
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30?	No	87¢	100¢	+$112	win
10-year Treasury yield >4.5% Friday?	Yes	30¢	100¢	$-1	loss

Tech 62% +$106 $7,170 vol · 16 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
OpenAI $1T+ valuation in 2025?	No	88¢	100¢	+$7	win
GPT ads by December 31?	No	95¢	100¢	+$122	win
Musk out as Tesla CEO in 2025?	No	86¢	100¢	+$29	win
Apple Siri partnership with OpenAI/Anthropic before September?	No	84¢	100¢	+$9	win
Will Karoline Leavitt say AI or artificial intelligence in her next press briefing?	Yes	39¢	0¢	$-25	loss
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	9¢	0¢	$-23	loss
OpenAI announces development of glasses/headset before August?	No	90¢	100¢	+$6	win
OpenAI browser in July?	Yes	21¢	0¢	$-25	loss
Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Princeton Commencement on May 25?	Yes	10¢	0¢	$-20	loss
Will Buffett say "Tesla" during May 3 Shareholders Meeting?	Yes	34¢	0¢	$-41	loss

Crypto 53% +$29 $4,120 vol · 19 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025?	No	44¢	100¢	+$45	win
U.S. enacts stablecoin bill in 2025?	Yes	82¢	100¢	+$12	win
Will Karoline Leavitt say crypto or Bitcoin in her next press briefing?	Yes	14¢	0¢	$-40	loss
Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during December press conference?	Yes	16¢	0¢	$-98	loss
Will "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" be said on the next episode of the All-In Podcast?	Yes	93¢	100¢	+$2	win
Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during July Press Conference?	Yes	22¢	0¢	$-35	loss
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July?	No	78¢	100¢	$-35	loss
Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during June Press Conference?	Yes	15¢	0¢	$-42	loss
Will Ross Ulbricht say "Silk Road" during Bitcoin 2025 appearance on May 29?	Yes	62¢	100¢	+$19	win
Will JD Vance say "Free speech" during Bitcoin 2025 appearance on May 28?	Yes	48¢	0¢	$-36	loss

Culture 100% +$10 $200 vol · 1 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Kylie Jenner attend the Oscars?	Yes	95¢	100¢	+$10	win

Weather 100% +$10 $288 vol · 1 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will a hurricane make landfall in the US in June?	No	94¢	100¢	+$10	win

Politics 52% $-411 $421,631 vol · 492 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize?	Yes	74¢	100¢	+$70	win
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?	No	88¢	88¢	+$35	win
Will Elon Musk announce Presidential run before 2027?	No	87¢	94¢	+$33	win
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	88¢	90¢	+$23	win
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?	No	93¢	94¢	+$0	win
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	No	97¢	100¢	$-243	loss
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?	Yes	38¢	0¢	$-22	loss
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	Yes	96¢	100¢	$-192	loss
Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run by December 31, 2026?	No	70¢	84¢	+$810	win
Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027?	No	76¢	84¢	+$245	win

Sports 17% $-576 $1,276 vol · 12 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Brian Armstrong out as Coinbase CEO before 2027?	No	78¢	90¢	+$23	win
Will annual inflation increase by ≥2.7% in January?	Yes	6¢	0¢	$-67	loss
Adin Ross unbanned from Twitch in 2025?	Yes	98¢	100¢	+$2	win
India unbans TikTok by December 31?	No	91¢	100¢	$-1	loss
Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% in November?	Yes	16¢	0¢	$-82	loss
Will annual inflation increase by 2.7% in August?	Yes	6¢	0¢	$-25	loss
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% in July?	Yes	12¢	0¢	$-76	loss
Will annual inflation increase by 2.6% or less in July?	Yes	6¢	0¢	$-25	loss
Will Buffett say "Inflation" 4+ times during May 3 Shareholders Meeting?	No	26¢	0¢	$-78	loss
HasanAbi unbanned from Twitch by Thursday?	No	65¢	0¢	$-148	loss

Elections 52% $-3,239 $58,445 vol · 61 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	90¢	90¢	$-3	loss
Will Trump nationalize elections?	Yes	25¢	22¢	$-5	loss
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	44¢	34¢	$-1	loss
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	54¢	58¢	+$8	win
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	92¢	65¢	$-929	loss
Another Canada election called by June 30?	No	55¢	96¢	+$86	win
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	65¢	74¢	+$10	win
Another Canada election called in 2025?	No	99¢	100¢	+$136	win
Ukraine election called in 2025?	No	97¢	100¢	+$31	win
America Party wins a federal or gubernatorial election in 2025?	No	90¢	100¢	+$14	win