Win rate
48.2%
108 W / 116 L
Total PnL
$-1,908
realized $-3,557 · unrealized $1,649
Portfolio
$1,649
volume $358,345
Predictions
265
4.7/day · avg $1,352
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 02/08/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | no |
Category breakdown
Other 55% +$3,492
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Dick Schoof be the next leader out before 2027? | Yes | 72¢ | 100¢ | +$135 | win |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Yes | 24¢ | 38¢ | +$18 | win |
| Insurrection Act invoked by March 31? | Yes | 41¢ | 0¢ | $-82 | loss |
| Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? | No | 71¢ | 64¢ | $-73 | loss |
| Starmer out by February 28, 2026? | Yes | 22¢ | 0¢ | $-13 | loss |
| Starmer out by March 31, 2026? | No | 84¢ | 100¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Lecornu out as French PM by June 30, 2026? | No | 76¢ | 93¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? | No | 90¢ | 99¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? | No | 48¢ | 55¢ | +$27 | win |
| Will the DHS shutdown end before April 1, 2026? | No | 61¢ | 100¢ | +$302 | win |
Politics 50% +$1,006
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | No | 38¢ | 0¢ | $-46 | loss |
| Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 3¢ | 0¢ | $-96 | loss |
| Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs? | Yes | 48¢ | 64¢ | +$46 | win |
| Will Trump say "King" during King Charles visit? | Yes | 70¢ | 90¢ | +$20 | win |
| Will Trump visit China by April 30? | Yes | 28¢ | 1¢ | $-150 | loss |
| Will the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell be dropped by April 30? | Yes | 18¢ | 18¢ | +$5 | win |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026? | Yes | 37¢ | 1¢ | $-50 | loss |
| Will more than 10 Senate Democrats vote in favor of the next government funding bill? | Yes | 27¢ | 100¢ | +$85 | win |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th? | No | 84¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? | Yes | 20¢ | 0¢ | $-85 | loss |
Economy 100% +$2
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? | Yes | 14¢ | 0¢ | +$2 | win |
Finance 0% $-23
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed rate hike in 2026? | Yes | 27¢ | 14¢ | $-23 | loss |
Elections 33% $-39
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 3¢ | 2¢ | $-23 | loss |
| French election called by November 30? | Yes | 27¢ | 0¢ | $-19 | loss |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 38¢ | 42¢ | +$4 | win |
Crypto 0% $-45
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | Yes | 44¢ | 40¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin August 5-11? | No | 14¢ | 0¢ | $-41 | loss |
Mentions 0% $-84
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Khamenei tweet again by March 7? | No | 53¢ | 0¢ | $-45 | loss |
| Will Khamenei tweet again by March 1? | No | 78¢ | 0¢ | $-39 | loss |
Tech 0% $-161
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of December 2025? | Yes | 21¢ | 0¢ | $-22 | loss |
| Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? | Yes | 22¢ | 0¢ | $-82 | loss |
| OpenAI browser in 2025? | No | 3¢ | 0¢ | $-39 | loss |
| OpenAI browser by October 31? | No | 64¢ | 0¢ | $-8 | loss |
| OpenAI browser by October 31? | Yes | 91¢ | 100¢ | $-9 | loss |
| NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down - October 15 | Up | 52¢ | 0¢ | $-0 | loss |
Geopolitics 47% $-5,823
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes | 45¢ | 30¢ | +$80 | win |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | Yes | 69¢ | 100¢ | +$26 | win |
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? | Yes | 76¢ | 100¢ | $-44 | loss |
| Iran leadership change by March 13? | No | 89¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | Yes | 33¢ | 30¢ | +$4 | win |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | No | 62¢ | 70¢ | +$3 | win |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? | No | 55¢ | 0¢ | $-24 | loss |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 60¢ | 82¢ | $-35 | loss |
| Will Matt Pinnell replace Markwayne Mullin as United States Senator from Oklahoma? | No | 59¢ | 100¢ | +$30 | win |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 57¢ | 100¢ | $-108 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | Yes | 24.0¢ | 0¢ | +$12 | $96 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 12.0¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | $659 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 38.8¢ | 100¢ | $-38 | $390 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | No | 73.0¢ | 0¢ | $-44 | $292 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? | No | 5.6¢ | 0¢ | $-106 | $86 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | Yes | 37.0¢ | 1¢ | $-1 | $50 | 12/04/2026 |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? | No | 90.0¢ | 100¢ | +$213 | $1,572 | 10/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | Yes | 55.5¢ | 86¢ | +$-0 | $56 | 07/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 22.0¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | $22 | 07/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 38.9¢ | 0¢ | $-28 | $233 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 31? | Yes | 75.5¢ | 100¢ | +$156 | $479 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 2? | No | 90.8¢ | 100¢ | +$102 | $1,167 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will more than 10 Senate Democrats vote in favor of the next government funding bill? | Yes | 26.9¢ | 100¢ | +$85 | $31 | 31/03/2026 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31? | No | 81.6¢ | 100¢ | +$72 | $702 | 31/03/2026 |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 51.0¢ | 100¢ | +$49 | $102 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the government shutdown last 30 days or more? | No | 85.1¢ | 100¢ | +$46 | $281 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the government shutdown last 14 days or more? | No | 71.9¢ | 100¢ | +$44 | $209 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | No | 83.9¢ | 100¢ | +$40 | $232 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the DHS shutdown end between February 24-27, 2026? | No | 80.0¢ | 100¢ | +$39 | $160 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 2nd? | No | 86.8¢ | 100¢ | +$32 | $226 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran leadership change by March 31? | Yes | 14.0¢ | 0¢ | +$9 | $64 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the DHS shutdown end between March 28-31, 2026? | Yes | 49.8¢ | 0¢ | +$8 | $83 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th? | No | 83.9¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $245 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6? | No | 52.0¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $102 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 5? | Yes | 22.0¢ | 0¢ | +$4 | $22 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more? | Yes | 47.0¢ | 0¢ | +$3 | $21 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 7? | No | 89.0¢ | 100¢ | +$-0 | $27 | 31/03/2026 |
| U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by March 31? | Yes | 18.0¢ | 0¢ | $-2 | $27 | 31/03/2026 |
| US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31? | Yes | 62.0¢ | 0¢ | $-5 | $76 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | Yes | 24.0¢ | 0¢ | $-7 | $23 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? | Yes | 8.0¢ | 0¢ | $-7 | $56 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? | No | 88.5¢ | 100¢ | $-13 | $372 | 31/03/2026 |
| US strikes Iraq by March 7? | No | 38.7¢ | 0¢ | $-14 | $63 | 31/03/2026 |
| Nothing Ever Happens: Israel Edition | Yes | 64.4¢ | 0¢ | $-17 | $159 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 5? | No | 67.0¢ | 100¢ | $-18 | $27 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March? | No | 65.0¢ | 100¢ | $-18 | $162 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the US next strike Iran on March 3, 2026 (ET)? | Yes | 2.1¢ | 0¢ | $-40 | $40 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 15? | Yes | 69.3¢ | 100¢ | $-41 | $104 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more? | No | 84.3¢ | 100¢ | $-56 | $927 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? | Yes | 20.1¢ | 0¢ | $-85 | $85 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 9? | No | 52.6¢ | 0¢ | $-101 | $105 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 7? | No | 77.5¢ | 100¢ | $-173 | $200 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4? | No | 89.0¢ | 100¢ | $-237 | $329 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 3? | No | 92.1¢ | 100¢ | $-302 | $537 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 8? | No | 84.3¢ | 0¢ | $-1,336 | $1,369 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Khamenei tweet again by March 7? | No | 53.4¢ | 0¢ | $-45 | $80 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in March 2026? | Yes | 30.0¢ | 0¢ | $-21 | $21 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Raja Krishnamoorthi be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Illinois? | No | 37.0¢ | 100¢ | +$57 | $33 | 17/03/2026 |
| Will the DHS shutdown last 21 days or more? | Yes | 81.6¢ | 100¢ | +$133 | $705 | 14/03/2026 |
| Will the DHS shutdown last 30 days or more? | Yes | 73.3¢ | 100¢ | +$110 | $302 | 14/03/2026 |