Win rate
46.3%
94 W / 109 L
Total PnL
$-581
realized $-4,399 · unrealized $3,818
Portfolio
$3,818
volume $213,017
Predictions
239
3.3/day · avg $891
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 12/12/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 18/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 18/04/2026 |
| Qualified | no |
Category breakdown
Mentions 39% +$1,274
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? | No | 72¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? | Yes | 16¢ | 0¢ | $-41 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? | No | 83¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? | Yes | 3¢ | 0¢ | $-23 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026? | No | 52¢ | 100¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026? | Yes | 16¢ | 0¢ | $-42 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? | No | 57¢ | 0¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? | Yes | 11¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026? | Yes | 4¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026? | No | 73¢ | 0¢ | $-104 | loss |
Politics 67% +$173
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 98¢ | 98¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 26¢ | 27¢ | +$11 | win |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 39¢ | 39¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$134 | win |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | No | 90¢ | 90¢ | +$14 | win |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | 88¢ | 93¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from March 3 to March 10, 2026? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
Elections 50% $-1
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 82¢ | 83¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | Yes | 67¢ | 65¢ | $-2 | loss |
Finance 0% $-2
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? | No | 7¢ | 6¢ | $-2 | loss |
Tech 0% $-20
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? | Yes | 21¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | loss |
Esports 50% $-35
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs | FUT Esports | 30¢ | 100¢ | +$39 | win |
| Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere (BO3) | FURIA | 74¢ | 0¢ | $-74 | loss |
Crypto 56% $-200
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? | No | 71¢ | 50¢ | $-135 | loss |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 95¢ | 90¢ | $-32 | loss |
| Will Solana dip to $20 by December 31, 2026? | No | 94¢ | 86¢ | $-43 | loss |
| MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? | No | 96¢ | 99¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will XRP reach $4.00 before 2026? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will Solana reach $260 before 2026? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
Sports 47% $-382
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 11¢ | 15¢ | +$23 | win |
| Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Yes | 4¢ | 4¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | Yes | 83¢ | 96¢ | +$4 | win |
| Wild vs. Panthers | Panthers | 44¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Kings vs. Flames | Flames | 43¢ | 100¢ | +$50 | win |
| Wild vs. Lightning | Wild | 39¢ | 0¢ | $-65 | loss |
| Kraken vs. Blue Jackets | Blue Jackets | 62¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | win |
| Flyers vs. Sharks | Flyers | 48¢ | 100¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Ducks vs. Utah | Utah | 56¢ | 0¢ | $-10 | loss |
| Panthers vs. Flames | Panthers | 50¢ | 0¢ | $-139 | loss |
Other 54% $-757
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? | No | 90¢ | 95¢ | +$16 | win |
| Will Hyperliquid dip to $8 by December 31, 2026? | No | 90¢ | 92¢ | $-44 | loss |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | No | 80¢ | 84¢ | +$9 | win |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | No | 91¢ | 82¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? | No | 5¢ | 5¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? | No | 96¢ | 99¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Yes | 26¢ | 28¢ | +$15 | win |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | Yes | 80¢ | 60¢ | $-149 | loss |
| Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | No | 65¢ | 60¢ | $-7 | loss |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? | No | 16¢ | 100¢ | +$332 | win |
Geopolitics 44% $-814
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | No | 90¢ | 91¢ | $-7 | loss |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | No | 16¢ | 0¢ | $-277 | loss |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? | No | 89¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | No | 88¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | No | 66¢ | 0¢ | $-24 | loss |
| Senators vs. Rangers | Senators | 63¢ | 100¢ | +$123 | win |
| Islanders vs. Senators | Senators | 54¢ | 100¢ | +$77 | win |
| Ducks vs. Senators | Senators | 61¢ | 100¢ | +$61 | win |
| Canadiens vs. Senators | Senators | 64¢ | 0¢ | $-36 | loss |
| Senators vs. Canucks | Senators | 67¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 11.4¢ | 100¢ | +$540 | $69 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? | No | 16.2¢ | 100¢ | +$332 | $64 | 31/03/2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? | No | 89.0¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | $2,225 | 31/03/2026 |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | No | 95.7¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | $521 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | No | 88.2¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $715 | 31/03/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | No | 66.0¢ | 0¢ | $-24 | $69 | 31/03/2026 |
| Maduro out by March 31, 2026? | No | 82.8¢ | 0¢ | $-328 | $579 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? | No | 90.0¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $86 | 27/03/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? | No | 63.2¢ | 0¢ | $-0 | $41 | 27/03/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? | No | 72.0¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | $48 | 27/03/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? | Yes | 16.0¢ | 0¢ | $-41 | $42 | 27/03/2026 |
| Wild vs. Panthers | Panthers | 44.0¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | $24 | 26/03/2026 |
| Kings vs. Flames | Flames | 43.0¢ | 100¢ | +$50 | $52 | 25/03/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? | No | 67.7¢ | 100¢ | +$52 | $203 | 24/03/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? | No | 84.2¢ | 0¢ | +$5 | $137 | 24/03/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? | No | 63.3¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | $73 | 24/03/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? | No | 83.2¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | $110 | 24/03/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? | Yes | 3.0¢ | 0¢ | $-23 | $25 | 24/03/2026 |
| Wild vs. Lightning | Wild | 39.0¢ | 0¢ | $-65 | $65 | 24/03/2026 |
| Senators vs. Rangers | Senators | 63.0¢ | 100¢ | +$123 | $209 | 23/03/2026 |
| Kraken vs. Blue Jackets | Blue Jackets | 62.0¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | $34 | 21/03/2026 |
| Flyers vs. Sharks | Flyers | 48.5¢ | 100¢ | $-3 | $62 | 21/03/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026? | No | 52.0¢ | 100¢ | $-6 | $61 | 21/03/2026 |
| Ducks vs. Utah | Utah | 56.0¢ | 0¢ | $-10 | $27 | 21/03/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026? | Yes | 15.8¢ | 0¢ | $-42 | $47 | 21/03/2026 |
| Panthers vs. Flames | Panthers | 50.0¢ | 0¢ | $-139 | $139 | 21/03/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? | No | 76.5¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | $45 | 20/03/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? | No | 78.0¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $23 | 20/03/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? | No | 57.1¢ | 0¢ | $-2 | $28 | 20/03/2026 |
| Hurricanes vs. Maple Leafs | Hurricanes | 67.0¢ | 100¢ | $-19 | $68 | 20/03/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? | Yes | 10.5¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | $26 | 20/03/2026 |
| Devils vs. Capitals | Devils | 46.0¢ | 0¢ | $-119 | $119 | 20/03/2026 |
| Stars vs. Avalanche | Stars | 43.0¢ | 100¢ | +$147 | $111 | 19/03/2026 |
| Islanders vs. Senators | Senators | 54.0¢ | 100¢ | +$77 | $90 | 19/03/2026 |
| Canadiens vs. Red Wings | Red Wings | 49.0¢ | 100¢ | +$57 | $54 | 19/03/2026 |
| Rangers vs. Blue Jackets | Blue Jackets | 68.0¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | $62 | 19/03/2026 |
| Sabres vs. Golden Knights | Sabres | 46.3¢ | 100¢ | +$35 | $30 | 18/03/2026 |
| Panthers vs. Canucks | Panthers | 59.2¢ | 0¢ | $-22 | $46 | 18/03/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026? | Yes | 4.4¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | $28 | 18/03/2026 |
| Lightning vs. Kraken | Kraken | 38.0¢ | 0¢ | $-28 | $28 | 18/03/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026? | No | 72.7¢ | 0¢ | $-104 | $106 | 18/03/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? | No | 80.1¢ | 100¢ | +$57 | $234 | 17/03/2026 |
| Wild vs. Blackhawks | Wild | 62.8¢ | 100¢ | +$36 | $68 | 17/03/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? | No | 80.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $39 | 17/03/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? | Yes | 10.2¢ | 0¢ | $-19 | $21 | 17/03/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? | No | 57.4¢ | 0¢ | $-51 | $116 | 17/03/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? | Yes | 36.7¢ | 0¢ | $-66 | $67 | 17/03/2026 |
| Flames vs. Red Wings | Red Wings | 62.3¢ | 100¢ | +$63 | $104 | 16/03/2026 |
| Ducks vs. Canadiens | Ducks | 42.0¢ | 100¢ | +$97 | $70 | 15/03/2026 |
| Penguins vs. Utah | Penguins | 42.0¢ | 100¢ | +$64 | $47 | 15/03/2026 |