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0xBdF61C672bb559282114941e55afE7bcf456CeB2-1775475502459
0xbdf61c672bb559282114941e55afe7bcf456ceb2 · polymarket profile ↗
Win rate
51.7%
30 W / 28 L
Total PnL
$3,223
realized $-2,346 · unrealized $5,569
Portfolio
$5,569
volume $71,282
Predictions
79
6.2/day · avg $902
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 06/04/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | no |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 65% +$2,006
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 74¢ | 84¢ | +$81 | win |
| US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | Yes | 44¢ | 82¢ | +$63 | win |
| Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? | Yes | 27¢ | 10¢ | $-15 | loss |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes | 59¢ | 24¢ | $-183 | loss |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Yes | 60¢ | 70¢ | +$125 | win |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | No | 61¢ | 71¢ | +$82 | win |
| US x Cuba military clash in 2026? | Yes | 43¢ | 45¢ | +$11 | win |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 69¢ | 76¢ | +$11 | win |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? | Yes | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | win |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | No | 34¢ | 0¢ | $-110 | loss |
Other 40% +$653
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | No | 63¢ | 49¢ | $-116 | loss |
| Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? | Yes | 27¢ | 30¢ | +$9 | win |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? | Yes | 33¢ | 46¢ | +$41 | win |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | Yes | 74¢ | 76¢ | $-213 | loss |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April? | Yes | 57¢ | 100¢ | +$75 | win |
| Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10? | Yes | 65¢ | 0¢ | $-99 | loss |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Yes | 48¢ | 38¢ | $-118 | loss |
| WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 13? | Up | 47¢ | 100¢ | +$1,590 | win |
| Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Yes | 20¢ | 0¢ | $-18 | loss |
| Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be 20 or more on April 12, 2026? | Yes | 61¢ | 0¢ | $-500 | loss |
Politics 60% +$78
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 40¢ | 39¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | Yes | 56¢ | 52¢ | $-98 | loss |
| Will Trump talk to Mohammed bin Salman in April? | Yes | 93¢ | 82¢ | $-35 | loss |
| Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April? | Yes | 49¢ | 70¢ | +$43 | win |
| Will Trump say "NATO" during Monday news conference? | Yes | 71¢ | 100¢ | +$40 | win |
| Will Trump visit China by June 30? | Yes | 82¢ | 94¢ | +$27 | win |
Economy 50% $-1
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | Yes | 14¢ | 12¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? | Yes | 5¢ | 6¢ | +$3 | win |
Elections 0% $-107
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | Yes | 37¢ | 34¢ | $-20 | loss |
| Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 48¢ | 44¢ | $-22 | loss |
| Will the Republican Party hold exactly 50 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | Yes | 19¢ | 14¢ | $-56 | loss |
Crypto 33% $-139
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? | Yes | 34¢ | 60¢ | +$143 | win |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 17? | Yes | 24¢ | 100¢ | +$158 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET | Up | 46¢ | 0¢ | $-100 | loss |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET | Up | 19¢ | 0¢ | $-110 | loss |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET | Up | 22¢ | 0¢ | $-200 | loss |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET | Up | 3¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 17? | Yes | 24.0¢ | 100¢ | +$158 | $50 | 17/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET | Up | 46.1¢ | 0¢ | $-100 | $100 | 16/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET | Up | 19.3¢ | 0¢ | $-110 | $110 | 16/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET | Up | 22.3¢ | 0¢ | $-200 | $200 | 16/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 32.0¢ | 100¢ | +$425 | $200 | 15/04/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | No | 95.0¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | $400 | 15/04/2026 |
| WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 13? | Up | 46.8¢ | 100¢ | +$1,590 | $1,400 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Yes | 20.0¢ | 0¢ | $-18 | $20 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be 20 or more on April 12, 2026? | Yes | 61.4¢ | 0¢ | $-500 | $500 | 12/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | Yes | 84.9¢ | 0¢ | $-181 | $500 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | No | 78.3¢ | 100¢ | $-1,484 | $2,289 | 10/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET | Up | 2.8¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | $30 | 09/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 19.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1,208 | $302 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Bridge" during Monday news conference? | Yes | 69.5¢ | 100¢ | +$44 | $100 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "NATO" during Monday news conference? | Yes | 71.5¢ | 100¢ | +$40 | $100 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will Trump visit China by June 30? | Yes | 81.6¢ | 94¢ | +$27 | $400 | 31/03/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | Yes | 46.0¢ | 100¢ | +$235 | $200 | 01/01/1970 |
| Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | Yes | 17.2¢ | 16¢ | $-9 | $200 | 01/01/1970 |
| Will the Republican Party hold exactly 50 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | Yes | 18.7¢ | 14¢ | $-56 | $200 | 01/01/1970 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Yes | 47.9¢ | 38¢ | $-118 | $600 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in April? | Yes | 45.2¢ | 24¢ | $-137 | $300 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Trump talk to Mohammed bin Salman in April? | Yes | 93.3¢ | 82¢ | $-35 | $300 | 30/04/2026 |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 39.6¢ | 53¢ | +$33 | $100 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April? | Yes | 40.8¢ | 61¢ | +$178 | $470 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April? | Yes | 49.1¢ | 70¢ | +$43 | $100 | 30/04/2026 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? | Yes | 25.5¢ | 56¢ | +$717 | $600 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April? | Yes | 57.0¢ | 100¢ | +$75 | $100 | 30/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 92.5¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | $500 | 30/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | Yes | 56.0¢ | 52¢ | $-98 | $500 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10? | Yes | 64.8¢ | 0¢ | $-99 | $200 | 30/04/2026 |
| Houthi military action against Israel by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 36.5¢ | 10¢ | $-125 | $200 | 30/04/2026 |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? | Yes | 85.0¢ | 100¢ | $-201 | $500 | 30/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026? | No | 71.9¢ | 0¢ | $-291 | $500 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? | Yes | 34.0¢ | 60¢ | +$143 | $200 | 01/05/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? | Yes | 74.1¢ | 80¢ | +$24 | $300 | 31/05/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? | Yes | 44.0¢ | 100¢ | +$888 | $700 | 31/05/2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | Yes | 28.0¢ | 66¢ | +$673 | $500 | 31/05/2026 |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | No | 83.0¢ | 78¢ | $-12 | $200 | 31/05/2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | Yes | 74.1¢ | 76¢ | $-213 | $1,000 | 31/05/2026 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? | Yes | 5.0¢ | 6¢ | +$3 | $30 | 17/06/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | No | 33.9¢ | 0¢ | $-110 | $110 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? | Yes | 33.0¢ | 46¢ | +$41 | $100 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? | Yes | 90.0¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | $500 | 30/06/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 90.9¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $300 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | Yes | 14.0¢ | 12¢ | $-4 | $40 | 29/07/2026 |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | Yes | 37.0¢ | 34¢ | $-20 | $300 | 03/11/2026 |
| Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 48.0¢ | 44¢ | $-22 | $300 | 03/11/2026 |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Yes | 60.2¢ | 70¢ | +$125 | $800 | 31/12/2026 |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | No | 61.0¢ | 71¢ | +$82 | $500 | 31/12/2026 |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | No | 63.2¢ | 49¢ | $-116 | $500 | 31/12/2026 |