Win rate
44.8%
816 W / 1006 L
Total PnL
$-22,294
realized $-28,723 · unrealized $6,429
Portfolio
$6,429
volume $6,735,568
Predictions
1,488
43.2/day · avg $4,527
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 17/09/2024 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 18/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 18/04/2026 |
| Qualified | no |
Category breakdown
Sports 57% +$21
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026? | No | 72¢ | 82¢ | $-32 | loss |
| Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026? | Yes | 55¢ | 28¢ | $-44 | loss |
| Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 30¢ | 44¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 57¢ | 56¢ | +$2 | win |
| World Cup game relocated away from Mexico? | Yes | 13¢ | 3¢ | +$36 | win |
| World Cup game relocated away from Mexico? | No | 89¢ | 97¢ | $-46 | loss |
| Will annual inflation increase by ≥2.8% in March? | Yes | 91¢ | 100¢ | $-4 | loss |
| NCAA Tournament: No. 16 seed to pull off an upset? | No | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| NCAA Tournament: No. 15 seed to pull off an upset? | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Florida win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | $-68 | loss |
Weather 61% $-57
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C or higher on March 29? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on March 29? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 29? | Yes | 26¢ | 0¢ | $-32 | loss |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on March 29? | No | 84¢ | 0¢ | $-75 | loss |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on March 24? | Yes | 54¢ | 0¢ | +$16 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on March 22? | No | 90¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on March 19? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on March 17? | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C or higher on March 17? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 15? | Yes | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | win |
Economy 52% $-58
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US recession by end of 2026? | No | 64¢ | 75¢ | $-22 | loss |
| US recession by end of 2026? | Yes | 25¢ | 25¢ | $-39 | loss |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? | No | 91¢ | 96¢ | +$25 | win |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | Yes | 83¢ | 92¢ | +$4 | win |
| No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after April 2026 meeting? | No | 18¢ | 2¢ | $-18 | loss |
| No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after April 2026 meeting? | Yes | 89¢ | 98¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting? | No | 87¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | Yes | 82¢ | 99¢ | $-160 | loss |
| No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | Yes | 92¢ | 92¢ | $-39 | loss |
| Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting? | No | 92¢ | 93¢ | +$13 | win |
Tech 42% $-85
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over $5M committed to the Hurupay public sale? | No | 90¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Over $3M committed to the Hurupay public sale? | Yes | 28¢ | 0¢ | $-120 | loss |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | No | 96¢ | 96¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? | No | 44¢ | 76¢ | $-13 | loss |
| GPT-5.5 released by April 15, 2026? | No | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | win |
| GPT-5.5 released by April 23, 2026? | Yes | 85¢ | 87¢ | $-7 | loss |
| Will NVIDIA dip to $164 in March? | Yes | 51¢ | 0¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Claude by Anthropic be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 27? | Yes | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Claude by Anthropic be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 17? | No | 30¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | loss |
| Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 10? | Yes | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
Crypto 45% $-235
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 88¢ | 88¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 21¢ | 18¢ | $-30 | loss |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? | No | 92¢ | 97¢ | +$9 | win |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30? | No | 97¢ | 98¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in March 2026? | Yes | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | $-12 | loss |
| Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31? | No | 21¢ | 0¢ | $-230 | loss |
| Will another company be accused of insider trading? | Yes | 13¢ | 0¢ | +$17 | win |
| Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? | No | 70¢ | 0¢ | $-107 | loss |
Culture 53% $-454
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? | Yes | 44¢ | 48¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? | No | 17¢ | 22¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? | No | 60¢ | 92¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? | Yes | 78¢ | 78¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 190m and 200m? | No | 48¢ | 0¢ | $-69 | loss |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 200m? | Yes | 12¢ | 0¢ | $-90 | loss |
| Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 75m and 80m? | No | 93¢ | 100¢ | $-18 | loss |
| Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 80m and 85m? | Yes | 96¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will "Louis Theroux: Inside The Manosphere" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? | Yes | 85¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will "The Dinosaurs" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? | Yes | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
Finance 38% $-635
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 92¢ | 92¢ | +$7 | win |
| Fed rate hike in 2026? | No | 78¢ | 88¢ | +$12 | win |
| Fed rate hike in 2026? | Yes | 17¢ | 12¢ | $-55 | loss |
| Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? | No | 31¢ | 30¢ | $-30 | loss |
| No one announced as next James Bond? | Yes | 63¢ | 66¢ | $-6 | loss |
| No one announced as next James Bond? | No | 42¢ | 34¢ | $-16 | loss |
| S&P 500 breaks its losing streak this week? | Yes | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| S&P 500 all time high by March 31, 2026? | No | 88¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 28, 2026? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $6,940 on the final trading day of February 2026? | Yes | 29¢ | 0¢ | $-12 | loss |
Elections 51% $-1,193
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 82¢ | 83¢ | $-8 | loss |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 18¢ | 17¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Trump declares election interference national emergency? | No | 74¢ | 81¢ | $-9 | loss |
| Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 50¢ | 46¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? | No | 32¢ | 41¢ | $-11 | loss |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 11¢ | 16¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | No | 86¢ | 84¢ | +$4 | win |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | No | 84¢ | 88¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | No | 51¢ | 46¢ | $-8 | loss |
| Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? | Yes | 66¢ | 59¢ | $-9 | loss |
Mentions 45% $-1,230
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Khamenei tweet again on March 22, 2026? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? | Yes | 35¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Andrew Tate post 100-129 posts from February 27 to March 6, 2026? | Yes | 73¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Andrew Tate post 100-129 posts from February 27 to March 6, 2026? | No | 11¢ | 0¢ | $-27 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? | No | 57¢ | 100¢ | $-103 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026? | Yes | 88¢ | 100¢ | $-7 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | $-46 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? | Yes | 3¢ | 0¢ | +$62 | win |
| Will Andrew Tate post 0-99 posts from February 24 to March 3, 2026? | Yes | 30¢ | 0¢ | $-68 | loss |
Politics 47% $-2,072
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | No | 71¢ | 78¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 23¢ | 27¢ | $-11 | loss |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 73¢ | 72¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027? | Yes | 59¢ | 48¢ | $-22 | loss |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | Yes | 6¢ | 8¢ | +$180 | win |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 39¢ | 100¢ | +$100 | win |
| Will Lori Chavez-DeRemer be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? | No | 40¢ | 100¢ | +$86 | win |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | Yes | 15¢ | 16¢ | +$58 | win |
| Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | Yes | 31¢ | 0¢ | +$55 | win |
| Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize? | No | 31¢ | 0¢ | +$36 | win |
Other 41% $-5,550
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPAX? | No | 97¢ | 96¢ | $-47 | loss |
| Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? | Yes | 62¢ | 60¢ | $-31 | loss |
| Based FDV above $100M one day after launch? | No | 4¢ | 0¢ | +$19 | win |
| Based FDV above $100M one day after launch? | Yes | 68¢ | 100¢ | $-29 | loss |
| Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? | No | 44¢ | 36¢ | $-60 | loss |
| Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? | Yes | 61¢ | 64¢ | $-212 | loss |
| US strike on Cuba by March 31? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | $-213 | loss |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Yes | 37¢ | 42¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | Yes | 16¢ | 16¢ | +$146 | win |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | Yes | 14¢ | 18¢ | +$118 | win |
Geopolitics 43% $-12,861
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? | No | 86¢ | 84¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | Yes | 32¢ | 28¢ | $-74 | loss |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | Yes | 65¢ | 100¢ | $-184 | loss |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | Yes | 15¢ | 13¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? | Yes | 19¢ | 9¢ | +$380 | win |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 74¢ | 100¢ | +$52 | win |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? | No | 5¢ | 0¢ | +$130 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Yes | 20¢ | 16¢ | +$119 | win |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026? | No | 35¢ | 0¢ | $-533 | loss |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | No | 89¢ | 91¢ | +$29 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026? | Yes | 14.3¢ | 3¢ | +$201 | $406 | 18/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026? | Yes | 11.0¢ | 0¢ | +$56 | $44 | 18/04/2026 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026? | No | 96.0¢ | 97¢ | $-329 | $2,509 | 18/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026? | No | 96.0¢ | 100¢ | $-43 | $1,344 | 18/04/2026 |
| Claude 4.7 released by April 17? | No | 7.2¢ | 0¢ | +$87 | $43 | 17/04/2026 |
| Trump announces tariff for Iran military cooperation by April 17? | No | 90.0¢ | 99¢ | $-2 | $180 | 17/04/2026 |
| Claude 4.7 released by April 17? | Yes | 89.0¢ | 100¢ | $-48 | $356 | 17/04/2026 |
| Trump announces tariff for Iran military cooperation by April 17? | Yes | 11.0¢ | 1¢ | $-12 | $22 | 17/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | Yes | 1.6¢ | 0¢ | +$293 | $154 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 6.7¢ | 0¢ | +$280 | $495 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | No | 2.0¢ | 0¢ | +$277 | $497 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 8.0¢ | 0¢ | +$73 | $64 | 15/04/2026 |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15? | Yes | 5.2¢ | 0¢ | +$68 | $35 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026? | No | 5.0¢ | 0¢ | +$35 | $80 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | No | 14.6¢ | 9¢ | +$34 | $1,697 | 15/04/2026 |
| Houthi military action against Israel by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$28 | $858 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? | No | 95.0¢ | 100¢ | +$26 | $570 | 15/04/2026 |
| DeepSeek V4 released by April 15? | No | 37.0¢ | 100¢ | +$23 | $34 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 90.0¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | $360 | 15/04/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | No | 96.3¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | $4,574 | 15/04/2026 |
| GPT-5.5 released by April 15, 2026? | No | 90.0¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | $180 | 15/04/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | Yes | 9.0¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | $56 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? | Yes | 7.0¢ | 100¢ | $-4 | $49 | 15/04/2026 |
| GPT-5.5 released by April 23, 2026? | Yes | 85.0¢ | 87¢ | $-7 | $34 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 6.7¢ | 2¢ | $-34 | $107 | 15/04/2026 |
| Houthi military action against Israel by April 15, 2026? | No | 70.0¢ | 0¢ | $-44 | $70 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026? | No | 98.1¢ | 98¢ | $-65 | $2,114 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? | No | 94.0¢ | 100¢ | $-97 | $873 | 15/04/2026 |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15? | No | 93.9¢ | 100¢ | $-126 | $1,690 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? | No | 93.0¢ | 0¢ | $-186 | $744 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 92.3¢ | 100¢ | $-209 | $7,929 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | No | 97.7¢ | 100¢ | $-508 | $9,387 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 97.0¢ | 100¢ | $-613 | $16,628 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | Yes | 91.9¢ | 90¢ | $-150 | $8,896 | 15/04/2026 |
| GPT-5.5 released by April 23, 2026? | No | 10.0¢ | 13¢ | +$13 | $24 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026? | Yes | 5.0¢ | 0¢ | +$54 | $31 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk pay TSA salaries? | No | 98.2¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $98 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026? | No | 93.0¢ | 100¢ | $-51 | $874 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné win the by-election for the seat of Terrebone in the House of Commons of Canada? | No | 59.0¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $59 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Tatiana Auguste win the by-election for the seat of Terrebone in the House of Commons of Canada? | No | 44.0¢ | 0¢ | $-3 | $44 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | Yes | 10.0¢ | 0¢ | +$116 | $302 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 70 seats? | No | 70.0¢ | 100¢ | +$107 | $280 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 22.0¢ | 16¢ | +$99 | $450 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 8.0¢ | 0¢ | +$82 | $206 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | No | 6.0¢ | 1¢ | +$76 | $597 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 87.5¢ | 100¢ | +$64 | $5,950 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 90.0¢ | 100¢ | +$48 | $720 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Our Homeland Movement (Mi Hazánk) win at least one seat in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 67.0¢ | 99¢ | +$47 | $134 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will TISZA win 54%+ of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election? | No | 98.0¢ | 98¢ | +$35 | $103 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 100 seats? | No | 83.0¢ | 100¢ | +$34 | $166 | 12/04/2026 |