ourdemocracy2

Economy 47% +$4,443 $3,782,492 vol · 38 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	97¢	99¢	+$258	win
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$-21,385	loss
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?	No	96¢	100¢	$-3,835	loss
US recession in 2025?	No	99¢	100¢	+$3	win
Negative GDP growth in 2025?	No	99¢	100¢	+$13	win
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$-87,884	loss
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?	No	96¢	100¢	$-624	loss
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?	No	14¢	0¢	+$2,160	win
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?	Yes	75¢	100¢	$-1,500	loss
Negative GDP growth in Q3 2025?	No	97¢	100¢	+$54	win

Crypto 85% +$1,338 $86,548 vol · 59 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	No	77¢	78¢	+$0	win
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30?	No	95¢	98¢	+$12	win
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in February?	No	97¢	100¢	$-1	loss
Will Solana reach $200 in February?	No	98¢	100¢	+$19	win
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in February?	No	98¢	100¢	$-10	loss
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in February?	No	98¢	100¢	+$8	win
Will XRP reach $3.40 in January?	No	99¢	100¢	+$9	win
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in January?	No	99¢	100¢	$-2	loss
Will Pudgy Penguins floor price hit 30 ETH in 2025?	No	92¢	100¢	+$239	win
XRP all time high by December 31?	No	94¢	100¢	+$103	win

Other 81% +$1,193 $197,244 vol · 121 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	18¢	18¢	+$8,250	win
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	65¢	62¢	$-50	loss
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	84¢	82¢	$-7,980	loss
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?	No	52¢	72¢	+$19	win
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	No	86¢	85¢	$-20	loss
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?	No	94¢	99¢	+$105	win
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?	Yes	98¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	Yes	84¢	97¢	$-80	loss
Megaquake by June 30?	No	81¢	81¢	+$3	win
Tucker Carlson federally charged?	No	92¢	94¢	+$5	win

Elections 83% +$1,190 $52,020 vol · 15 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	50¢	81¢	+$0	—
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	50¢	19¢	+$0	—
Trump declares election interference national emergency?	No	80¢	81¢	+$0	—
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	50¢	56¢	+$29	win
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	49¢	56¢	$-5	loss
2026 U.S. Senate Election: Democrats flip Republicans by March 31?	Yes	85¢	100¢	+$888	win
2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds under 50% by March 31?	No	11¢	0¢	+$19	win
2026 U.S. House Election: Republican Odds over 60% by March 31?	No	99¢	100¢	+$8	win
2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds under 50% by March 31?	Yes	78¢	100¢	+$25	win
2026 U.S. Senate Election: Democrats flip Republicans by March 31?	No	19¢	0¢	+$17	win

Finance 88% +$137 $10,261 vol · 16 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027?	No	83¢	90¢	+$6	win
Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	83¢	87¢	+$34	win
Will the S&P 500 Index lose at least 5% on any day in Q1?	No	91¢	100¢	$-97	loss
Will the S&P 500 Index lose at least 3% on any day in Q1?	Yes	38¢	0¢	$-62	loss
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $6,600 on the final trading day of January 2026?	Yes	98¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,200 (HIGH) in January?	No	100¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $7,100-$7,200 in January?	No	99¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% in 2025?	No	94¢	100¢	+$12	win
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.6% in 2025?	No	100¢	100¢	+$0	win
Magnificent 7 shrinks below 25% of S&P 500 in 2025?	No	98¢	100¢	+$8	win

Geopolitics 62% +$83 $107,083 vol · 69 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?	Yes	53¢	100¢	+$0	—
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?	No	88¢	91¢	+$9	win
Will JD Vance enter Iran by June 30?	No	95¢	94¢	$-2	loss
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	No	97¢	97¢	+$0	win
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?	No	98¢	100¢	+$15	win
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30?	No	98¢	99¢	+$33	win
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	No	99¢	99¢	+$11	win
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?	No	89¢	100¢	+$40	win
Ukraine hits Moscow by February 14, 2026?	No	96¢	100¢	+$18	win
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?	Yes	4¢	0¢	$-1	loss

Tech 93% +$75 $7,067 vol · 28 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Tesla and xAI merger officially announced by June 30?	No	92¢	94¢	+$8	win
Will Google dip to $220 in April?	No	99¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $280 end of April?	Yes	96¢	99¢	+$2	win
Will Amazon reach $320 in February?	No	98¢	100¢	+$5	win
Will Microsoft reach $563 in February?	No	95¢	100¢	+$4	win
Will NVIDIA reach $252 in February?	No	97¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?	No	97¢	100¢	+$4	win
Will Tesla be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?	No	98¢	100¢	+$4	win
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?	No	98¢	100¢	+$4	win
Will NVIDIA reach $252 in January?	No	100¢	100¢	+$1	win

Sports 100% +$6 $5,965 vol · 2 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Netflix reach $368 in January?	No	100¢	100¢	+$2	win

Mentions 0% $-14 $445 vol · 1 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025?	No	95¢	100¢	$-14	loss

Esports 0% $-54 $200 vol · 1 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Team Falcons win The International 2025 Tournament?	Yes	57¢	100¢	$-54	loss

Politics 80% $-231 $65,173 vol · 25 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	No	97¢	100¢	+$40	win
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?	No	85¢	88¢	+$19	win
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	Yes	94¢	100¢	$-3,189	loss
Will Trump be impeached by June 30?	No	96¢	97¢	+$27	win
Trump out as President by April 30?	No	99¢	99¢	+$2	win
Trump out as President by March 31?	No	98¢	100¢	+$20	win
Congress authorizes military force against Venezuela by January 31?	No	99¢	100¢	+$9	win
Trump x Putin Meeting in Hungary by Dec 31?	No	95¢	100¢	+$12	win
Will Donald Trump visit Russia in 2025?	No	93¢	100¢	+$11	win
Will Trump meet with Changpeng Zhao in 2025?	No	97¢	100¢	+$5	win