Win rate
55.3%
171 W / 138 L
Total PnL
$10,727
realized $6,460 · unrealized $4,267
Portfolio
$4,267
volume $1,804,182
Predictions
357
4.8/day · avg $5,054
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 07/03/2023 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 60% +$3,787
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | No | 22¢ | 0¢ | +$775 | win |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | Yes | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$204 | win |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 44¢ | 70¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes | 31¢ | 30¢ | $-10 | loss |
| Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026? | Yes | 65¢ | 100¢ | +$672 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | 72¢ | 94¢ | +$486 | win |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | No | 79¢ | 78¢ | $-22 | loss |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | No | 58¢ | 58¢ | +$66 | win |
| Iran leadership change by April 30? | No | 70¢ | 94¢ | +$85 | win |
| Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 25¢ | 6¢ | +$80 | win |
Other 51% +$3,779
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genius FDV above $500M one day after launch? | No | 50¢ | 0¢ | +$58 | win |
| Fogo FDV above $700M one day after launch? | No | 73¢ | 100¢ | +$248 | win |
| EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? | No | 78¢ | 100¢ | +$232 | win |
| Over $25M committed to the Trove public sale? | Yes | 4¢ | 0¢ | $-165 | loss |
| Gensyn FDV above $1B one day after launch? | No | 76¢ | 96¢ | +$75 | win |
| Rainbow FDV above $70M one day after launch? | No | 80¢ | 100¢ | +$61 | win |
| Bitway FDV above $200M one day after launch? | No | 81¢ | 100¢ | +$46 | win |
| Over $200K committed to the Foresee public sale? | Yes | 81¢ | 100¢ | +$33 | win |
| Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch? | Yes | 52¢ | 0¢ | $-36 | loss |
| Sentient FDV above $1B one day after launch? | Yes | 53¢ | 0¢ | $-42 | loss |
Politics 62% +$2,417
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump declassifies UFO files before 2027? | No | 6¢ | 0¢ | +$1,050 | win |
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | $-62 | loss |
| Will Trump nominate Arthur Laffer as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | loss |
| Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize? | No | 24¢ | 0¢ | +$120 | win |
| Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | Yes | 29¢ | 0¢ | +$19 | win |
| Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | No | 69¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize? | Yes | 71¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | Yes | 19¢ | 8¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Trump visit China by April 30? | No | 52¢ | 99¢ | +$231 | win |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | Yes | 38¢ | 48¢ | +$5 | win |
Sports 68% +$2,126
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UFC Fight Night: Movsar Evloev vs. Lerone Murphy (Featherweight, Main Card) | Movsar Evloev | 63¢ | 100¢ | +$1,567 | win |
| UFC 325: Fiziev vs. Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card) | Ruffy | 47¢ | 100¢ | +$111 | win |
| UFC 325: Dan Hooker vs. Benoit Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card) | Saint Denis | 53¢ | 100¢ | +$89 | win |
| UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card) | Volkanovski | 56¢ | 100¢ | +$79 | win |
| Hyperliquid listed on Coinbase in 2025? | Yes | 42¢ | 0¢ | $-93 | loss |
| UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan (Bantamweight, Main Card) | Yan | 23¢ | 100¢ | +$496 | win |
| UFC 323: Pantoja vs. Van (Flyweight, Main Card) | Van | 34¢ | 100¢ | +$78 | win |
| UFC 323: Moreno vs. Taira (Flyweight, Main Card) | Taira | 53¢ | 100¢ | +$44 | win |
| UFC Fight Night: Topuria vs. Almakhan (Bantamweight, Prelims) | Topuria | 57¢ | 100¢ | +$202 | win |
| UFC Fight Night: Perez vs. Almabayev (Flyweight, Main Card) | Almabayev | 70¢ | 100¢ | +$83 | win |
Tech 67% +$1,684
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over $10M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? | No | 47¢ | 100¢ | $-109 | loss |
| Over $10M committed to the Hurupay public sale? | No | 53¢ | 100¢ | +$80 | win |
| Over $1M committed to the Hurupay public sale? | Yes | 86¢ | 100¢ | +$179 | win |
| Over $60M committed to the Ranger public sale? | Yes | 51¢ | 100¢ | $-9 | loss |
| Over $20M committed to the Ranger public sale? | No | 6¢ | 0¢ | +$300 | win |
| Over $20M committed to the Paystream raise on MetaDAO? | No | 40¢ | 100¢ | +$182 | win |
| Over $100M committed to the Avici Raise on MetaDAO? | No | 84¢ | 100¢ | +$89 | win |
| Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? | Yes | 7¢ | 0¢ | +$67 | win |
| OpenAI browser by October 31? | No | 17¢ | 0¢ | $-85 | loss |
| Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31? | Yes | 9¢ | 0¢ | $-672 | loss |
Weather 0% +$0
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2026? | Yes | 12¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | — |
Culture 0% $-2
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 68¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 30¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will BLɅϽKPIИK release an album by February 28? | No | 4¢ | 0¢ | $-2 | loss |
Esports 50% $-5
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FaZe (BO5) | Vitality | 65¢ | 100¢ | +$54 | win |
| Will BetBoom Team win The International 2025 Tournament? | Yes | 5¢ | 0¢ | $-59 | loss |
Finance 0% $-179
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? | Yes | 26¢ | 74¢ | $-179 | loss |
Elections 39% $-186
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 16¢ | 14¢ | $-39 | loss |
| Will Hannah Spencer win the Gorton and Denton by-election? | No | 30¢ | 0¢ | $-41 | loss |
| Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election? | Yes | 40¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? | No | 73¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win by 0-10%? | Yes | 20¢ | 100¢ | +$1,194 | win |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win by 20-30%? | No | 75¢ | 100¢ | +$50 | win |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Yes | 5¢ | 0¢ | $-70 | loss |
| Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Yes | 5¢ | 0¢ | $-106 | loss |
| Will LLA win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election? | Yes | 68¢ | 100¢ | +$61 | win |
| Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? | No | 50¢ | 0¢ | $-107 | loss |
Economy 0% $-429
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting? | Yes | 7¢ | 0¢ | $-382 | loss |
| No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $-47 | loss |
Crypto 52% $-2,062
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will stablecoins hit $500B before 2027? | No | 62¢ | 85¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Paradex launch a token on March 5? | Yes | 31¢ | 100¢ | +$567 | win |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by March 31? | Yes | 11¢ | 0¢ | $-16 | loss |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$31 | win |
| Over $1.8B committed to the MegaETH public sale? | No | 25¢ | 100¢ | +$162 | win |
| Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? | Yes | 36¢ | 0¢ | +$18 | win |
| Will Ethena win the USDH ticker? | Yes | 14¢ | 0¢ | $-327 | loss |
| Will Ethereum hit $4,000 by December 31? | Yes | 53¢ | 100¢ | +$66 | win |
| MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase December 9-15? | No | 14¢ | 0¢ | $-42 | loss |
| MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase December 2-8? | Yes | 67¢ | 100¢ | +$96 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 76.3¢ | 100¢ | +$94 | $1,076 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | Yes | 3.2¢ | 0¢ | +$72 | $76 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | Yes | 90.0¢ | 100¢ | $-11 | $1,000 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | No | 84.6¢ | 0¢ | $-83 | $1,000 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 49.4¢ | 0¢ | $-826 | $3,032 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Yes | 8.4¢ | 0¢ | $-5 | $35 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Yes | 86.9¢ | 99¢ | +$557 | $4,373 | 12/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | Yes | 51.3¢ | 87¢ | +$346 | $2,679 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | No | 32.6¢ | 13¢ | +$326 | $2,180 | 07/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 92.2¢ | 0¢ | $-386 | $4,199 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will Paradex launch a token on March 5? | Yes | 31.2¢ | 100¢ | +$567 | $625 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will another country strike Iran by March 31? | No | 16.6¢ | 100¢ | +$992 | $500 | 31/03/2026 |
| US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31? | No | 11.5¢ | 0¢ | +$642 | $1,382 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026? | No | 50.0¢ | 100¢ | +$400 | $1,000 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 85.7¢ | 100¢ | +$286 | $2,100 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more? | No | 81.7¢ | 100¢ | +$271 | $1,635 | 31/03/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? | No | 85.3¢ | 100¢ | +$238 | $4,750 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more? | Yes | 1.4¢ | 0¢ | +$200 | $61 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump declare war on Iran by February 28, 2026? | No | 86.4¢ | 100¢ | +$135 | $1,737 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia capture Zarichne by February 28, 2026? | Yes | 97.4¢ | 100¢ | +$52 | $1,948 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026? | No | 10.8¢ | 100¢ | +$44 | $148 | 31/03/2026 |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | No | 92.5¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $4,625 | 31/03/2026 |
| Epstein blackmail evidence released by March 31? | No | 26.7¢ | 0¢ | +$5 | $157 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Don Lemon be criminally charged? | No | 6.0¢ | 0¢ | $-12 | $40 | 31/03/2026 |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by March 31? | Yes | 10.7¢ | 0¢ | $-16 | $344 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | Yes | 0.6¢ | 0¢ | $-60 | $69 | 31/03/2026 |
| Nothing Ever Happens: US Strike Edition | No | 56.0¢ | 100¢ | $-88 | $1,148 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026? | Yes | 21.1¢ | 0¢ | $-108 | $158 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Polymarket mindshare hit 75%? | No | 0.9¢ | 0¢ | $-112 | $112 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? | Yes | 24.3¢ | 0¢ | $-117 | $2,046 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 15? | No | 43.3¢ | 0¢ | $-162 | $1,300 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Polymarket mindshare hit 70%? | No | 15.0¢ | 0¢ | $-300 | $300 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? | No | 42.2¢ | 100¢ | $-610 | $1,511 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? | No | 34.7¢ | 0¢ | $-706 | $992 | 31/03/2026 |
| UFC Fight Night: Movsar Evloev vs. Lerone Murphy (Featherweight, Main Card) | Movsar Evloev | 62.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1,567 | $2,660 | 22/03/2026 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting? | Yes | 7.1¢ | 0¢ | $-382 | $2,763 | 18/03/2026 |
| Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 68.0¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | $118 | 15/03/2026 |
| Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 30.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $423 | 15/03/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? | No | 91.9¢ | 100¢ | +$31 | $3,024 | 01/03/2026 |
| US strikes Iraq by February 28? | Yes | 27.9¢ | 100¢ | +$2,522 | $978 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? | Yes | 69.7¢ | 100¢ | +$349 | $926 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? | No | 35.1¢ | 0¢ | +$185 | $351 | 28/02/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | No | 38.0¢ | 0¢ | +$162 | $2,680 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will BLɅϽKPIИK release an album by February 28? | No | 4.0¢ | 0¢ | $-2 | $42 | 28/02/2026 |
| Moltbook AI agent sues a human by Feb 28? | Yes | 69.0¢ | 100¢ | $-5 | $1,725 | 28/02/2026 |
| Iran Strike on Israel by February 28? | No | 5.6¢ | 0¢ | $-80 | $224 | 28/02/2026 |
| Ilhan Omar town hall attack staged? | Yes | 3.2¢ | 0¢ | $-93 | $320 | 28/02/2026 |
| Odds of Khamenei being out as Supreme Leader by March 31 over 20% in February? | Yes | 40.0¢ | 100¢ | $-110 | $200 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 31? | Yes | 57.0¢ | 100¢ | $-245 | $481 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will Hannah Spencer win the Gorton and Denton by-election? | No | 30.0¢ | 0¢ | $-41 | $615 | 26/02/2026 |