Win rate
62.1%
36 W / 22 L
Total PnL
$135,949
realized $-46,598 · unrealized $182,546
Portfolio
$182,546
volume $2,636,775
Predictions
57
1.4/day · avg $46,259
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 05/10/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 62% +$109,942
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026? | Yes | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$661 | win |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes | 59¢ | 30¢ | +$488 | win |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? | Yes | 52¢ | 100¢ | $-150 | loss |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Yes | 40¢ | 18¢ | $-397 | loss |
| Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026? | Yes | 40¢ | 18¢ | $-127 | loss |
| Iran leadership change by April 30? | Yes | 40¢ | 5¢ | $-5,747 | loss |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | No | 98¢ | 99¢ | +$198 | win |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | No | 86¢ | 59¢ | $-28,268 | loss |
| Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$93 | win |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 18¢ | 100¢ | $-3,718 | loss |
Other 40% +$8,362
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | No | 63¢ | 56¢ | $-7 | loss |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Yes | 99¢ | 99¢ | $-105 | loss |
| Will a new country join the Abraham Accords in 2025? | Yes | 39¢ | 0¢ | $-52 | loss |
Elections 50% +$1,571
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 3¢ | 39¢ | +$2,170 | win |
| Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Yes | 6¢ | 0¢ | $-599 | loss |
Politics 83% $-2,366
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump out as President by April 30? | No | 98¢ | 99¢ | +$430 | win |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? | No | 82¢ | 54¢ | $-2,856 | loss |
| Will Trump say "Midnight Hammer" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Trump say "Crown" during Egypt summit? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Trump say "Houthi" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 17.5¢ | 100¢ | $-3,718 | $17,540 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Yes | 99.5¢ | 99¢ | $-105 | $69,620 | 12/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 37.4¢ | 100¢ | +$18,495 | $11,215 | 07/04/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | Yes | 58.6¢ | 100¢ | +$19,586 | $28,739 | 31/03/2026 |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | No | 95.1¢ | 100¢ | +$8,037 | $157,879 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 15? | Yes | 86.1¢ | 100¢ | +$1,387 | $8,613 | 31/03/2026 |
| Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 83.1¢ | 100¢ | +$955 | $25,312 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 31? | Yes | 95.3¢ | 100¢ | +$937 | $19,063 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran leadership change by March 31? | Yes | 24.5¢ | 0¢ | $-342 | $5,524 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | Yes | 40.1¢ | 0¢ | $-14,881 | $30,459 | 31/03/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | Yes | 53.9¢ | 100¢ | +$36,841 | $43,159 | 28/02/2026 |
| Iran Strike on Israel by February 28? | Yes | 94.8¢ | 100¢ | +$1,048 | $18,952 | 28/02/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | Yes | 10.3¢ | 100¢ | +$14,879 | $9,360 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? | Yes | 40.0¢ | 0¢ | +$5 | $539 | 31/01/2026 |
| Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | Yes | 31.0¢ | 0¢ | $-97 | $1,000 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | Yes | 44.6¢ | 0¢ | $-637 | $2,000 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will a new country join the Abraham Accords in 2025? | Yes | 39.2¢ | 0¢ | $-52 | $300 | 01/01/2026 |
| Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Yes | 5.8¢ | 0¢ | $-599 | $779 | 04/11/2025 |
| Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 13? | Yes | 82.1¢ | 100¢ | +$107 | $500 | 13/10/2025 |
| Will Trump say "Biden" or "Autopen" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13? | Yes | 70.0¢ | 100¢ | +$43 | $100 | 13/10/2025 |
| Will Trump say "Peace" 5+ times during Egypt summit? | Yes | 89.2¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $100 | 13/10/2025 |
| Will Trump say "Midnight Hammer" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13? | Yes | 98.5¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $200 | 13/10/2025 |
| Will Trump say "Crown" during Egypt summit? | Yes | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $200 | 13/10/2025 |
| Will Trump say "Houthi" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $200 | 13/10/2025 |
| Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 13? | No | 33.0¢ | 0¢ | $-6 | $100 | 13/10/2025 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | Yes | 87.4¢ | 100¢ | +$2,527 | $17,473 | 01/01/1970 |
| Will Israel or the US target Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center nuclear facility? | No | 6.0¢ | 0¢ | $-60 | $60 | 01/01/1970 |
| Will Israel or the US target Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center nuclear facility? | Yes | 96.7¢ | 100¢ | $-10,357 | $10,792 | 01/01/1970 |
| Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026? | No | 89.9¢ | 94¢ | +$1,236 | $24,033 | 21/04/2026 |
| Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026? | No | 99.3¢ | 100¢ | +$93 | $15,632 | 21/04/2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | No | 85.6¢ | 59¢ | $-28,268 | $90,918 | 22/04/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | No | 98.3¢ | 99¢ | +$198 | $47,198 | 30/04/2026 |
| Netanyahu out by April 30? | No | 98.2¢ | 99¢ | +$487 | $41,359 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? | No | 82.2¢ | 54¢ | $-2,856 | $8,225 | 30/04/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | Yes | 88.1¢ | 100¢ | +$13,981 | $105,779 | 30/04/2026 |
| Trump out as President by April 30? | No | 98.1¢ | 99¢ | +$430 | $39,259 | 30/04/2026 |
| Iran leadership change by April 30? | Yes | 40.0¢ | 5¢ | $-5,747 | $11,397 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026? | Yes | 40.0¢ | 18¢ | $-127 | $693 | 31/05/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? | Yes | 44.0¢ | 100¢ | $-917 | $10,240 | 31/05/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 49.2¢ | 100¢ | +$20,865 | $28,947 | 30/06/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026? | Yes | 14.0¢ | 100¢ | +$12,870 | $2,100 | 30/06/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? | Yes | 41.0¢ | 100¢ | +$7,835 | $11,430 | 30/06/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026? | Yes | 17.0¢ | 100¢ | +$4,968 | $1,020 | 30/06/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026? | Yes | 20.0¢ | 100¢ | +$3,990 | $1,000 | 30/06/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026? | Yes | 27.0¢ | 100¢ | +$3,640 | $1,350 | 30/06/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026? | Yes | 29.9¢ | 100¢ | +$3,497 | $1,493 | 30/06/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026? | Yes | 23.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2,307 | $690 | 30/06/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by March 10, 2026? | Yes | 34.0¢ | 100¢ | +$855 | $442 | 30/06/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 57.0¢ | 100¢ | +$339 | $1,713 | 30/06/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? | Yes | 54.0¢ | 100¢ | $-1,183 | $12,868 | 30/06/2026 |