Win rate
55.6%
10 W / 8 L
Total PnL
$-197
realized $-9,585 · unrealized $9,388
Portfolio
$9,388
volume $48,512
Predictions
35
1.2/day · avg $1,386
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 31/12/1969 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 18/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 18/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 75% +$268
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | No | 49¢ | 15¢ | $-133 | loss |
Politics 50% +$63
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? | Yes | 75¢ | 82¢ | $-7 | loss |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$70 | win |
Other 40% $-247
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | No | 96¢ | 96¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | Yes | 81¢ | 96¢ | +$14 | win |
| Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? | Yes | 41¢ | 74¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? | No | 47¢ | 26¢ | $-438 | loss |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Yes | 97¢ | 99¢ | +$182 | win |
Elections 57% $-322
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Fidesz-KDNP win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 3-6%? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will voter turnout be 74–77% in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 3¢ | 0¢ | $-328 | loss |
| Will voter turnout be 80%+ in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 97¢ | 99¢ | +$2 | win |
Recent Trades (18)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | No | 49.0¢ | 15¢ | $-133 | $1,166 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz-KDNP win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 3-6%? | No | 95.3¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $199 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will voter turnout be 77–80% in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 92.5¢ | 99¢ | $-9 | $100 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will voter turnout be 80%+ in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 12.9¢ | 1¢ | $-11 | $109 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will voter turnout be 74–77% in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 2.9¢ | 0¢ | $-328 | $345 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Yes | 96.7¢ | 99¢ | +$182 | $8,921 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz-KDNP win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 9%+? | No | 93.4¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | $199 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will voter turnout be 80%+ in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 96.7¢ | 99¢ | +$2 | $86 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz-KDNP win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 6-9%? | No | 97.0¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $199 | 12/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? | No | 95.9¢ | 100¢ | +$70 | $1,638 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | No | 84.8¢ | 16¢ | +$44 | $516 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? | No | 94.9¢ | 100¢ | +$345 | $5,280 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? | No | 47.0¢ | 26¢ | $-438 | $519 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | Yes | 80.7¢ | 96¢ | +$14 | $498 | 30/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? | No | 40.0¢ | 10¢ | +$12 | $100 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? | Yes | 41.0¢ | 74¢ | $-5 | $100 | 30/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? | Yes | 75.0¢ | 82¢ | $-7 | $100 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | No | 96.2¢ | 96¢ | $-0 | $298 | 31/12/2026 |