Win rate
73.2%
150 W / 55 L
Total PnL
$2,510
realized $-9,122 · unrealized $11,632
Portfolio
$11,632
volume $154,240
Predictions
282
4.3/day · avg $547
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 06/12/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Other 80% +$7,669
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? | Yes | 94¢ | 94¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of June? | No | 88¢ | 97¢ | +$11 | win |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June? | No | 36¢ | 56¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? | No | 70¢ | 86¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? | No | 58¢ | 88¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in April? | Yes | 88¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? | No | 40¢ | 92¢ | +$2,964 | win |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | No | 70¢ | 99¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? | No | 24¢ | 0¢ | $-325 | loss |
Crypto 76% +$444
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 80¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will XRP dip to $1.20 in March? | No | 73¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | win |
| Will Solana dip to $70 in March? | No | 84¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 March 23-29? | No | 73¢ | 0¢ | $-7 | loss |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on March 30? | No | 54¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | win |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 30? | Yes | 84¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | win |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on March 28? | No | 85¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 29? | Yes | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on March 28? | Up | 78¢ | 100¢ | +$44 | win |
Finance 75% +$166
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,500 (LOW) in March 2026? | No | 38¢ | 0¢ | $-38 | loss |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 23? | Up | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | win |
| Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,000 (HIGH) in February 2026? | No | 48¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
Culture 100% +$19
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will "Stranger Things: Season 5" be the top US Netflix show this week? (December 30, 2025) | Yes | 81¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | win |
Sports 100% +$16
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seahawks vs. Patriots | Seahawks | 69¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | win |
Weather 100% +$5
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? | No | 95¢ | 96¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31? | Yes | 87¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
Tech 100% +$2
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
Elections 0% $-1
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
Economy 50% $-5
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US recession by end of 2026? | No | 66¢ | 74¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| US recession in 2025? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? | Yes | 93¢ | 100¢ | $-5 | loss |
Politics 60% $-18
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | win |
| Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | No | 75¢ | 100¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | Yes | 25¢ | 0¢ | $-50 | loss |
| Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs? | No | 76¢ | 36¢ | +$12 | win |
| Will Trump talk to Zohran Mamdani in December? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
Mentions 0% $-35
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026? | No | 99¢ | 0¢ | $-35 | loss |
Geopolitics 61% $-5,235
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 45¢ | 76¢ | $-13 | loss |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | No | 37¢ | 0¢ | $-147 | loss |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? | No | 73¢ | 96¢ | +$7 | win |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | No | 36¢ | 0¢ | $-3,264 | loss |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | No | 82¢ | 97¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | No | 96¢ | 99¢ | $-1 | loss |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 37¢ | 0¢ | $-642 | loss |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | Yes | 69¢ | 90¢ | +$48 | win |
| France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? | No | 65¢ | 100¢ | +$28 | win |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | No | 97.4¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $1,091 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 23.0¢ | 100¢ | $-60 | $109 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | No | 70.0¢ | 99¢ | +$4 | $150 | 12/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 37.2¢ | 0¢ | $-642 | $1,061 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | Yes | 69.4¢ | 90¢ | +$48 | $528 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? | No | 44.8¢ | 0¢ | +$156 | $190 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? | No | 87.7¢ | 100¢ | +$64 | $1,122 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? | No | 92.0¢ | 100¢ | +$24 | $276 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? | No | 93.6¢ | 100¢ | +$22 | $323 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will XRP dip to $1.20 in March? | No | 73.0¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $29 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Solana reach $100 in March? | No | 82.0¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $49 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Solana dip to $70 in March? | No | 84.0¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $34 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March? | No | 87.0¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $35 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? | No | 98.6¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $128 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? | No | 57.4¢ | 100¢ | +$2,267 | $3,732 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? | No | 72.2¢ | 100¢ | +$1,001 | $2,602 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? | No | 41.5¢ | 100¢ | +$929 | $840 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? | No | 80.5¢ | 100¢ | +$202 | $838 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 89.3¢ | 100¢ | +$174 | $2,868 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in March 2026? | No | 70.5¢ | 100¢ | +$170 | $506 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? | No | 27.0¢ | 100¢ | +$54 | $30 | 31/03/2026 |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | No | 97.9¢ | 100¢ | +$32 | $1,518 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? | No | 87.4¢ | 100¢ | +$29 | $1,573 | 31/03/2026 |
| France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? | No | 65.1¢ | 100¢ | +$28 | $52 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in March 2026? | No | 82.0¢ | 100¢ | +$26 | $117 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in March 2026? | No | 89.8¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | $135 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? | No | 93.2¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | $203 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? | No | 94.9¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $120 | 31/03/2026 |
| Crude Oil all time high by March 31? | No | 81.0¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $24 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March? | No | 90.5¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $54 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of March? | No | 91.0¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $46 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,900 (HIGH) in March 2026? | No | 93.7¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $56 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 2? | No | 94.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $28 | 31/03/2026 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026? | No | 66.0¢ | 0¢ | $-6 | $200 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,400 (LOW) in March 2026? | No | 53.7¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | $25 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will another country strike Iran by March 31? | Yes | 73.6¢ | 0¢ | $-27 | $74 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? | No | 10.5¢ | 0¢ | $-27 | $27 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March? | No | 34.9¢ | 0¢ | $-35 | $35 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,500 (LOW) in March 2026? | No | 38.0¢ | 0¢ | $-38 | $38 | 31/03/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | No | 80.7¢ | 0¢ | $-134 | $387 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026? | No | 90.8¢ | 100¢ | $-184 | $944 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? | No | 23.9¢ | 0¢ | $-325 | $1,394 | 31/03/2026 |
| Maduro out by March 31, 2026? | No | 83.0¢ | 0¢ | $-574 | $581 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 March 23-29? | No | 64.2¢ | 100¢ | +$93 | $166 | 30/03/2026 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on March 30? | No | 54.0¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | $54 | 30/03/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 March 23-29? | No | 72.0¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | $36 | 30/03/2026 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 30? | Yes | 83.6¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $59 | 30/03/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 March 23-29? | No | 93.8¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $141 | 30/03/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 March 23-29? | No | 86.0¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $52 | 30/03/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 March 23-29? | No | 93.0¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $93 | 30/03/2026 |