Win rate
80.1%
125 W / 31 L
Total PnL
$1,202
realized $-112 · unrealized $1,315
Portfolio
$1,315
volume $72,471
Predictions
282
5.8/day · avg $257
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 16/06/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 79% +$1,167
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? | No | 60¢ | 84¢ | +$9 | win |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | Yes | 85¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027? | No | 36¢ | 0¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? | No | 87¢ | 91¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30? | No | 40¢ | 73¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30? | Yes | 53¢ | 27¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Russia enter Lyman by April 30? | Yes | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by April 30? | No | 89¢ | 94¢ | +$1 | win |
| Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
Other 100% +$37
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31? | Yes | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | win |
| Will Hezbollah disarm in 2025? | No | 58¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | win |
| Maduro out in 2025? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Politics 80% +$28
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? | Yes | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” in 2025? | Yes | 29¢ | 0¢ | +$11 | win |
| Trump declassifies UFO files in 2025? | Yes | 89¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” in 2025? | No | 72¢ | 100¢ | $-9 | loss |
| Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? | Yes | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
Elections 82% +$8
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 82¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 60 seats? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will voter turnout be 80%+ in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 67¢ | 99¢ | $-11 | loss |
| Will Fidesz-KDNP win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 9%+? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will voter turnout be 77–80% in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 83¢ | 96¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 70 seats? | Yes | 58¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | loss |
| Will Fidesz-KDNP win 36-40% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election? | Yes | 96¢ | 98¢ | +$24 | win |
| Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 9%+? | Yes | 95¢ | 99¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 12-15%? | Yes | 92¢ | 92¢ | +$0 | win |
Sports 100% +$2
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? | Yes | 73¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
Crypto 100% +$2
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | No | 71.2¢ | 9¢ | $-12 | $21 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 82.0¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $20 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 60 seats? | No | 93.8¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $56 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will voter turnout be 68–71% in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 95.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $48 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz-KDNP win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 6-9%? | No | 95.6¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $37 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz-KDNP win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 9%+? | No | 98.5¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $49 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will voter turnout be 77–80% in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 83.0¢ | 96¢ | +$0 | $21 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will voter turnout be 80%+ in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 66.6¢ | 99¢ | $-11 | $52 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 70 seats? | Yes | 58.0¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | $20 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz-KDNP win 36-40% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election? | Yes | 96.2¢ | 98¢ | +$24 | $161 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 9%+? | Yes | 95.2¢ | 99¢ | +$2 | $48 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 12-15%? | Yes | 91.5¢ | 92¢ | +$0 | $46 | 12/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $366 | 07/04/2026 |
| Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? | Yes | 90.9¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $44 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will the US next strike Iran during the week of February 22-28, 2026 (ET)? | Yes | 99.6¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $379 | 04/04/2026 |
| Will Ukraine re-enter Novomykolaivka by March 31? | Yes | 93.4¢ | 100¢ | +$45 | $567 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 19, 2026? | No | 88.0¢ | 100¢ | +$37 | $278 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 20, 2026? | Yes | 73.8¢ | 100¢ | +$37 | $116 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by March 31? | No | 89.0¢ | 100¢ | +$26 | $304 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia enter Borova by December 31? | No | 98.9¢ | 100¢ | +$22 | $123 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Ukraine re-enter Huliaipole by March 31? | Yes | 93.3¢ | 100¢ | +$22 | $313 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | Yes | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | $814 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by March 31? | No | 87.8¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | $132 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia capture Hryshyne by March 15, 2026? | Yes | 96.6¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | $475 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia capture Drobysheve by March 31? | Yes | 89.3¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | $130 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 23, 2026? | Yes | 69.2¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $55 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia capture Zarichne by February 28, 2026? | Yes | 83.3¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $55 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia capture Hryshyne by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 94.5¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $178 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 21, 2026? | No | 85.9¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $56 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by March 31? | Yes | 16.7¢ | 0¢ | +$9 | $22 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? | No | 88.5¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $70 | 31/03/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? | No | 86.5¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $69 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia capture Zarichne by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 95.0¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $95 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia capture all of Rodynske by March 31? | Yes | 95.7¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $307 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia capture Toretske by March 31, 2026? | No | 89.9¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $36 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia enter Bilytske by March 31? | Yes | 99.5¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $110 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by March 31, 2026? | No | 89.0¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $27 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31? | No | 98.1¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $123 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31? | Yes | 99.6¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $529 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia capture Hryshyne by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 98.4¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $160 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? | No | 94.7¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $132 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia capture all of Rodynske by April 30? | Yes | 96.2¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $29 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by March 31? | No | 95.2¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $29 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia enter Orikhiv by March 31? | No | 98.6¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $99 | 31/03/2026 |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | No | 94.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $24 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia capture Drobysheve by February 28? | No | 97.5¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $39 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 23, 2026? | Yes | 99.4¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $130 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 8? | Yes | 99.5¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $100 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 20, 2026? | No | 89.3¢ | 0¢ | $-5 | $194 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 22, 2026? | No | 52.8¢ | 0¢ | $-9 | $612 | 31/03/2026 |