Win rate
44.6%
1631 W / 2028 L
Total PnL
$1,606,428
realized $222,020 · unrealized $1,384,408
Portfolio
$1,384,408
volume $113,019,577
Predictions
2,625
40.9/day · avg $43,055
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 06/05/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | no |
Category breakdown
Politics 45% +$637,090
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 23¢ | 27¢ | +$1,466 | win |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | +$1,076 | win |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | No | 71¢ | 79¢ | $-3,047 | loss |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 93¢ | 94¢ | $-3,595 | loss |
| Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027? | Yes | 46¢ | 55¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration before 2027? | No | 24¢ | 0¢ | $-215 | loss |
| Will Trump nominate Arthur Laffer as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 3¢ | 0¢ | $-17,960 | loss |
| Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | Yes | 22¢ | 0¢ | +$42,019 | win |
| Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-114,854 | loss |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | Yes | 11¢ | 8¢ | +$16,947 | win |
Geopolitics 46% +$440,539
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 40¢ | 80¢ | +$20 | win |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | Yes | 34¢ | 30¢ | $-35 | loss |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes | 37¢ | 26¢ | +$2,234 | win |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Yes | 68¢ | 69¢ | $-72 | loss |
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-104,814 | loss |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 72¢ | 100¢ | $-241 | loss |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Yes | 18¢ | 18¢ | +$5,168 | win |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | Yes | 58¢ | 100¢ | $-333 | loss |
| Will the US strike Iran next? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$320 | win |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | No | 35¢ | 74¢ | +$162 | win |
Elections 37% +$135,037
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 89¢ | 90¢ | $-3,972 | loss |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 8¢ | 10¢ | +$4,420 | win |
| Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 54¢ | 60¢ | +$72 | win |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House | Yes | 27¢ | 1¢ | +$284 | win |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | No | 51¢ | 48¢ | $-406 | loss |
| Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 63¢ | 44¢ | $-35 | loss |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 10¢ | 14¢ | +$388 | win |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | No | 64¢ | 44¢ | $-124 | loss |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | No | 77¢ | 86¢ | +$2,211 | win |
| Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 45¢ | 34¢ | $-49 | loss |
Culture 47% +$91,412
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 81¢ | 100¢ | +$251 | win |
| Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 80¢ | 100¢ | $-18 | loss |
| Will Cynthia Erivo win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Lady Gaga win 2 Grammys? | Yes | 81¢ | 100¢ | +$652 | win |
| Will Lady Gaga win 3 Grammys? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$2,742 | win |
| Will DTMF (Bad Bunny) win Record of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? | Yes | 8¢ | 0¢ | +$48 | win |
| Will Debí Tirar Más Fotos (Bad Bunny) win Album of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? | Yes | 78¢ | 100¢ | +$36 | win |
| Will DTMF (Bad Bunny) win Record of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? | No | 70¢ | 100¢ | $-48 | loss |
| Will Kendrick Lamar be the top Spotify artist for 2025? | Yes | 3¢ | 0¢ | $-496 | loss |
| Will SZA release a new song in 2025? | No | 0¢ | 0¢ | +$44,637 | win |
Finance 54% +$74,409
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Netflix close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? | Yes | 24¢ | 0¢ | +$337 | win |
| Will Netflix close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? | No | 70¢ | 100¢ | $-299 | loss |
| SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? | No | 25¢ | 5¢ | $-1,051 | loss |
| Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by April 15? | Yes | 79¢ | 100¢ | $-72 | loss |
| Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by April 30? | No | 4¢ | 0¢ | $-77 | loss |
| Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? | Yes | 28¢ | 12¢ | $-12 | loss |
| Will SpaceX file for an IPO by March 27, 2026? | Yes | 24¢ | 0¢ | $-36 | loss |
| Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 6, 2026? | Yes | 52¢ | 0¢ | $-1,529 | loss |
| Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 18, 2026? | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | $-1,783 | loss |
| Will SOLV Energy, Inc.'s market cap be less than $3.8B at market close on IPO day? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | +$18,459 | win |
Sports 58% +$41,511
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Yes | 7¢ | 15¢ | +$29 | win |
| Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics? | Yes | 33¢ | 0¢ | +$44 | win |
| Will United States win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics? | No | 33¢ | 0¢ | +$20 | win |
| Will Matthew Stafford win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award? | Yes | 81¢ | 100¢ | +$38 | win |
| Will Bad Bunny perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | $-3,444 | loss |
| Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? | No | 55¢ | 0¢ | $-1,241 | loss |
| Will the Kansas City Chiefs win Super Bowl 2026? | Yes | 6¢ | 0¢ | $-104 | loss |
| Will Amazon run an Ad during Super Bowl LX? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Tití Me Preguntó be played at the Super Bowl halftime show? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | win |
| Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? | No | 67¢ | 100¢ | $-124 | loss |
Economy 43% +$39,474
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting? | Yes | 9¢ | 0¢ | +$3,215 | win |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | $-6,908 | loss |
| Houthis successfully target shipping by March 31? | Yes | 14¢ | 0¢ | $-46 | loss |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | $-10,276 | loss |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting? | Yes | 95¢ | 100¢ | $-7,242 | loss |
| US recession in 2025? | Yes | 55¢ | 0¢ | $-64 | loss |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-32,513 | loss |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? | Yes | 31¢ | 0¢ | $-5,729 | loss |
| No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | $-40,077 | loss |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? | Yes | 83¢ | 100¢ | $-35,135 | loss |
Tech 43% $-7,742
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Meta acquire TikTok? | Yes | 3¢ | 4¢ | +$1,057 | win |
| Will Amazon acquire TikTok? | No | 84¢ | 94¢ | $-1,403 | loss |
| Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-3,267 | loss |
| Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-1,087 | loss |
| Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 82¢ | 62¢ | $-303 | loss |
| GPT-5.3 released by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | $-901 | loss |
| Tim Cook out as Apple CEO by March 31? | Yes | 20¢ | 0¢ | $-247 | loss |
| Tim Cook out as Apple CEO by March 31? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | $-1,724 | loss |
| Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? | Yes | 9¢ | 0¢ | +$346 | win |
| Will Tesla deliver between 400000 and 425000 vehicles in Q4 2025 | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
Crypto 38% $-21,847
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Rob Jetten become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? | No | 2¢ | 0¢ | +$3,097 | win |
| Will Rob Jetten become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? | Yes | 94¢ | 100¢ | $-2,931 | loss |
| Will Paradex launch a token on March 5? | Yes | 78¢ | 100¢ | +$740 | win |
| Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31? | No | 0¢ | 0¢ | +$5,749 | win |
| Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31? | Yes | 96¢ | 100¢ | $-3,582 | loss |
| Blast Open Rotterdam 2026: Will a player break something during a game? | No | 83¢ | 100¢ | $-53 | loss |
| Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | +$30,251 | win |
| Over $3B committed to the MegaETH public sale? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | $-1,023 | loss |
| Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-7,000 | loss |
| Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | $-29,494 | loss |
Other 45% $-231,374
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch? | No | 85¢ | 85¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time? | No | 79¢ | 66¢ | $-28 | loss |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to at least 60 years in prison? | Yes | 44¢ | 36¢ | $-8 | loss |
| Kodiak FDV above $50M one day after launch? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | +$25,972 | win |
| Over $20M committed to the Trove public sale? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | $-687 | loss |
| Over $5M committed to the Infinex public sale? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-2,928 | loss |
| Over $15M committed to the Trove public sale? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $-26 | loss |
| Over $60M committed to the Infinex public sale? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-3,519 | loss |
| Lighter Airdrop before January 1? | Yes | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
| Over $5M committed to the Foresee public sale? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 71.3¢ | 100¢ | +$74,493 | $173,663 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | Yes | 0.1¢ | 0¢ | +$49,711 | $172 | 15/04/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | Yes | 4.3¢ | 0¢ | +$46,782 | $11,548 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 0.3¢ | 0¢ | +$40,666 | $412 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 0.2¢ | 0¢ | +$11,881 | $46 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? | Yes | 11.2¢ | 0¢ | +$3,390 | $1,368 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 13.0¢ | 2¢ | +$1,328 | $469 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026? | No | 3.3¢ | 0¢ | +$287 | $88 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? | Yes | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $2,529 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 88.5¢ | 100¢ | $-291 | $668 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? | No | 65.9¢ | 100¢ | $-1,811 | $8,494 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | No | 83.7¢ | 100¢ | $-8,322 | $368,862 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | Yes | 95.4¢ | 100¢ | $-10,701 | $26,428 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? | No | 96.3¢ | 100¢ | $-11,242 | $25,374 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | No | 12.0¢ | 10¢ | $-12,210 | $7,585 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 93.2¢ | 100¢ | $-36,742 | $181,445 | 15/04/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | $-55,479 | $123,286 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | No | 36.0¢ | 0¢ | $-72,267 | $79,251 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | No | 0.3¢ | 0¢ | +$13,087 | $218 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | Yes | 79.4¢ | 91¢ | +$16,371 | $75,311 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | No | 10.1¢ | 9¢ | $-12,297 | $6,963 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026? | No | 98.9¢ | 98¢ | $-1,740 | $3,989 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026? | Yes | 1.9¢ | 0¢ | +$515 | $64 | 14/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 14, 2026? | Yes | 98.8¢ | 100¢ | $-28 | $156 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026? | No | 98.9¢ | 100¢ | $-662 | $1,351 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk pay TSA salaries? | No | 99.7¢ | 100¢ | $-1,075 | $8,003 | 14/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 13, 2026? | Yes | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | $-24 | $48 | 13/04/2026 |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 13? | No | 2.8¢ | 0¢ | $-60 | $60 | 13/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 13, 2026? | No | 3.8¢ | 0¢ | $-183 | $209 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | Yes | 0.2¢ | 1¢ | +$61,281 | $261 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | No | 0.6¢ | 1¢ | +$3,839 | $89 | 12/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 12, 2026? | Yes | 6.3¢ | 0¢ | +$3,069 | $1,082 | 12/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 12, 2026? | Yes | 98.7¢ | 100¢ | $-33 | $66 | 12/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 12, 2026? | No | 5.4¢ | 0¢ | $-106 | $148 | 12/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 12, 2026? | No | 99.1¢ | 100¢ | $-3,564 | $8,228 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | No | 89.6¢ | 99¢ | $-39,073 | $173,677 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Yes | 79.8¢ | 99¢ | +$2,826 | $30,961 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Trump post "Make Iran Great Again" or "MIGA" on Truth Social this week? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $222 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will "Donk" be said during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final? | Yes | 2.5¢ | 0¢ | +$2,022 | $159 | 11/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 11, 2026? | No | 5.9¢ | 0¢ | +$1,326 | $177 | 11/04/2026 |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 11? | Yes | 84.7¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $68 | 11/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 11, 2026? | Yes | 97.6¢ | 100¢ | $-1,322 | $6,111 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will "Donk" be said during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final? | No | 88.0¢ | 100¢ | $-2,272 | $4,458 | 11/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | Yes | 3.4¢ | 0¢ | +$21,072 | $7,780 | 10/04/2026 |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? | Yes | 3.4¢ | 0¢ | +$5,338 | $621 | 10/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 10, 2026? | No | 97.4¢ | 100¢ | $-105 | $216 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 10? | Yes | 97.3¢ | 100¢ | $-969 | $4,221 | 10/04/2026 |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? | No | 99.2¢ | 100¢ | $-1,750 | $17,815 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | No | 77.0¢ | 100¢ | $-15,274 | $33,941 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 99.2¢ | 100¢ | +$115,031 | $783,223 | 07/04/2026 |