Win rate
69.1%
686 W / 307 L
Total PnL
$1,885,026
realized $156,590 · unrealized $1,728,436
Portfolio
$1,728,436
volume $57,529,669
Predictions
805
9.0/day · avg $71,465
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 04/09/2024 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 66% +$1,478,437
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 41¢ | 76¢ | +$1,637 | win |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | No | 27¢ | 0¢ | +$7,848 | win |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026? | Yes | 79¢ | 100¢ | $-6,760 | loss |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? | Yes | 41¢ | 100¢ | +$5,009 | win |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026? | No | 88¢ | 0¢ | $-50,099 | loss |
| US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | Yes | 41¢ | 76¢ | +$1,695 | win |
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? | No | 27¢ | 0¢ | $-61,590 | loss |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | No | 25¢ | 0¢ | $-4,785 | loss |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Yes | 31¢ | 18¢ | +$292 | win |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | Yes | 60¢ | 100¢ | $-609 | loss |
Politics 77% +$277,375
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31? | No | 71¢ | 72¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April? | Yes | 34¢ | 70¢ | +$14 | win |
| Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April? | No | 61¢ | 30¢ | $-9 | loss |
| Will Trump endorse an Israeli Ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30? | No | 61¢ | 0¢ | +$296 | win |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026? | No | 51¢ | 42¢ | +$79 | win |
| Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 21, 2026? | Yes | 33¢ | 10¢ | +$14 | win |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | Yes | 22¢ | 0¢ | $-1,744 | loss |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$532 | win |
| Will Trump talk to Mohammed bin Salman in March? | Yes | 78¢ | 100¢ | +$600 | win |
| Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” by March 31? | Yes | 66¢ | 100¢ | +$445 | win |
Other 72% +$125,161
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Yes | 55¢ | 34¢ | $-915 | loss |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | Yes | 27¢ | 16¢ | +$2,581 | win |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | No | 72¢ | 84¢ | +$1,861 | win |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | Yes | 36¢ | 44¢ | +$39 | win |
| Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 | Yes | 59¢ | 62¢ | +$218 | win |
| Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | No | 50¢ | 66¢ | +$831 | win |
| Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | No | 76¢ | 82¢ | +$77 | win |
| U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by December 31, 2025? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$80 | win |
| Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? | No | 71¢ | 80¢ | $-693 | loss |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31? | Yes | 35¢ | 26¢ | $-514 | loss |
Economy 75% +$34,059
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houthis agree to end attacks on shipping before July? | Yes | 66¢ | 100¢ | +$2,841 | win |
| Houthis agree to end attacks on shipping before June? | Yes | 42¢ | 100¢ | +$48,813 | win |
| Houthis agree to end attacks on shipping before May? | Yes | 23¢ | 0¢ | $-18,346 | loss |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$751 | win |
Elections 100% +$7,154
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Venezuela election scheduled by January 31, 2026? | No | 86¢ | 100¢ | +$466 | win |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Yes | 70¢ | 100¢ | +$464 | win |
| Will Syria hold national elections before July? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$2,400 | win |
| Conservatives win majority in Canadian election? | No | 88¢ | 100¢ | +$2,263 | win |
| Will Syria hold national elections by January 31? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$472 | win |
| Palestine a UN member state before U.S. election? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 29¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | win |
Sports 100% +$4,133
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Rauw Alejandro perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? | Yes | 20¢ | 0¢ | +$123 | win |
| Will Rauw Alejandro perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? | No | 73¢ | 100¢ | +$255 | win |
Tech 100% +$662
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Musk out as Tesla CEO in 2025? | No | 73¢ | 100¢ | +$662 | win |
Culture 100% +$106
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$106 | win |
Crypto 71% $-498
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025? | Yes | 51¢ | 0¢ | +$4,894 | win |
| Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine in 2025? | No | 89¢ | 100¢ | +$78 | win |
| US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025? | No | 26¢ | 100¢ | $-68 | loss |
| Will Kanye launch a coin in March? | No | 80¢ | 100¢ | +$111 | win |
| Will Kanye launch a coin in March? | Yes | 25¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Kanye launch a coin in February? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | +$4,872 | win |
| Will Kanye launch a coin in February? | No | 32¢ | 100¢ | $-10,386 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | No | 94.6¢ | 100¢ | +$3,779 | $163,299 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 94.3¢ | 100¢ | +$2,895 | $48,214 | 15/04/2026 |
| U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 15? | Yes | 17.1¢ | 0¢ | $-10 | $85 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? | Yes | 6.4¢ | 0¢ | $-24 | $142 | 15/04/2026 |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15? | Yes | 13.8¢ | 0¢ | $-116 | $493 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026? | No | 90.2¢ | 100¢ | $-236 | $530 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | No | 53.5¢ | 13¢ | $-323 | $4,941 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 8.8¢ | 0¢ | $-674 | $3,622 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 13.3¢ | 100¢ | $-750 | $15,857 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | Yes | 22.0¢ | 0¢ | $-1,744 | $6,518 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 39.8¢ | 0¢ | $-2,621 | $3,563 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | No | 76.0¢ | 0¢ | $-7,778 | $8,444 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | Yes | 26.5¢ | 87¢ | +$265,020 | $133,251 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8–12? | No | 40.1¢ | 0¢ | $-63 | $120 | 12/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | Yes | 1.1¢ | 0¢ | $-410 | $1,876 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | No | 76.9¢ | 100¢ | $-699 | $2,836 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$222 | $22,000 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | No | 53.4¢ | 13¢ | $-268 | $4,161 | 07/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? | Yes | 9.2¢ | 0¢ | $-1,689 | $4,704 | 07/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 94.4¢ | 0¢ | $-18,101 | $165,365 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | Yes | 43.7¢ | 87¢ | +$376,797 | $560,382 | 07/04/2026 |
| France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? | No | 67.0¢ | 100¢ | +$51,376 | $104,413 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026? | No | 81.7¢ | 100¢ | +$33,309 | $179,000 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026? | No | 85.1¢ | 100¢ | +$23,651 | $212,138 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | No | 73.9¢ | 100¢ | +$18,119 | $62,391 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will another country strike Iran by March 31? | No | 31.3¢ | 100¢ | +$17,244 | $7,964 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | No | 22.0¢ | 0¢ | +$11,268 | $26,182 | 31/03/2026 |
| Maduro out by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 89.0¢ | 100¢ | +$10,110 | $79,113 | 31/03/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | No | 74.2¢ | 0¢ | +$9,476 | $60,902 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran first? | US | 28.6¢ | 50¢ | +$8,478 | $11,149 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026? | Yes | 0.1¢ | 0¢ | +$4,425 | $160 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 23, 2026? | No | 47.0¢ | 100¢ | +$4,057 | $3,690 | 31/03/2026 |
| Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by January 31? | No | 89.8¢ | 100¢ | +$2,992 | $26,400 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | Yes | 10.1¢ | 0¢ | +$2,861 | $724 | 31/03/2026 |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | No | 95.3¢ | 100¢ | +$2,611 | $52,944 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31? | No | 79.9¢ | 100¢ | +$2,389 | $20,250 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? | No | 87.6¢ | 100¢ | +$2,335 | $16,423 | 31/03/2026 |
| US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31? | Yes | 79.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1,894 | $17,163 | 31/03/2026 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 40.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1,734 | $5,620 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 60.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1,517 | $19,722 | 31/03/2026 |
| Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 51.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1,234 | $26,165 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will another country recognize Somaliland by March 31? | Yes | 27.0¢ | 0¢ | +$1,233 | $1,444 | 31/03/2026 |
| US strikes Yemen by March 31, 2026? | No | 55.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1,151 | $1,409 | 31/03/2026 |
| Venezuela election scheduled by March 31, 2026? | No | 59.2¢ | 100¢ | +$1,086 | $1,574 | 31/03/2026 |
| Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations by March 31? | No | 77.9¢ | 100¢ | +$942 | $3,331 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will another country recognize Somaliland by March 31? | No | 73.2¢ | 100¢ | +$664 | $11,021 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump talk to Mohammed bin Salman in March? | Yes | 78.4¢ | 100¢ | +$600 | $2,174 | 31/03/2026 |
| Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by March 31? | No | 50.9¢ | 100¢ | +$565 | $1,567 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? | No | 92.0¢ | 100¢ | +$532 | $6,115 | 31/03/2026 |
| Nothing Ever Happens: Khamenei | No | 95.5¢ | 100¢ | +$520 | $10,360 | 31/03/2026 |