Win rate
60.0%
66 W / 44 L
Total PnL
$2,156
realized $1,293 · unrealized $863
Portfolio
$863
volume $152,423
Predictions
299
8.0/day · avg $510
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 12/07/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 18/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 18/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Other 67% +$1,237
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? | No | 52¢ | 52¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? | No | 38¢ | 0¢ | +$8 | win |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | Yes | 47¢ | 68¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | Yes | 29¢ | 41¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10? | No | 73¢ | 100¢ | +$38 | win |
| Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 6¢ | 9¢ | +$0 | — |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Yes | 42¢ | 28¢ | $-18 | loss |
| Will LYON qualify for EWC 2026? | Yes | 36¢ | 62¢ | +$16 | win |
| Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 RBC Heritage? | Yes | 5¢ | 43¢ | +$155 | win |
| Will Patrick Cantlay finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 RBC Heritage? | Yes | 38¢ | 60¢ | +$20 | win |
Geopolitics 63% +$321
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | No | 36¢ | 0¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Yes | 25¢ | 69¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished? | Yes | 8¢ | 0¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | No | 33¢ | 0¢ | $-18 | loss |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 10¢ | 0¢ | +$2 | win |
| Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026? | Yes | 16¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | win |
| Kurds declare independence from Iran? | No | 69¢ | 93¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | Yes | 13¢ | 6¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? | Yes | 50¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Iran strike Israel by April 30, 2026? | No | 3¢ | 0¢ | $-13 | loss |
Elections 54% +$319
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 38¢ | 40¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 44¢ | 66¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Peter Milobar win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia leadership election? | Yes | 34¢ | 28¢ | $-39 | loss |
| Will Simone Venturini win the 2026 Venice mayoral election? | Yes | 51¢ | 55¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Rowenna Davis win the 2026 London Borough of Croydon mayoral election? | Yes | 60¢ | 66¢ | +$17 | win |
| Will Bernard Drainville be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 CAQ leadership elections? | Yes | 14¢ | 0¢ | $-10 | loss |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 36¢ | 18¢ | $-11 | loss |
| Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections? | Yes | 83¢ | 91¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Troels Lund Poulsen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections? | No | 88¢ | 98¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Catherine Trautmann be the next mayor of Strasbourg? | Yes | 6¢ | 100¢ | +$391 | win |
Politics 47% +$195
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | Yes | 11¢ | 0¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 11, 2026? | No | 78¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will JD Vance say "Trump" during meetings with Orbán? | Yes | 88¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Trump say "Pakistan" or "Pakistani" during events with Rutte? | Yes | 20¢ | 0¢ | $-40 | loss |
| Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? | No | 57¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from March 31 to April 7, 2026? | Yes | 53¢ | 0¢ | $-18 | loss |
| Will Trump say "Easter" or "Egg" during Monday news conference? | Yes | 62¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Trump post "Epic Fury" on Truth Social this week? | Yes | 9¢ | 0¢ | $-12 | loss |
| Will Trump or Melania say "Chicago" at Chicago Opening Night? | Yes | 65¢ | 0¢ | $-26 | loss |
| Will Trump say "Hormuz" during the FII PRIORITY Summit? | Yes | 44¢ | 100¢ | +$44 | win |
Crypto 50% +$19
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? | No | 52¢ | 51¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Melania say "Community" 3+ times during Fostering the Future Together event on March 24? | Yes | 32¢ | 0¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Quantum breaks Bitcoin by December 31, 2027? | No | 71¢ | 86¢ | +$7 | win |
Mentions 60% +$13
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Kanye tweet again by April 30? | Yes | 68¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026? | Yes | 15¢ | 0¢ | $-44 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? | Yes | 20¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? | Yes | 13¢ | 0¢ | +$16 | win |
Sports 0% +$0
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 16¢ | 16¢ | +$0 | — |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | Yes | 11.0¢ | 0¢ | +$2 | $22 | 17/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 14.0¢ | 100¢ | +$71 | $112 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Yes | 6.0¢ | 0¢ | +$58 | $30 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Yes | 26.0¢ | 0¢ | +$31 | $47 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Tadej Pogačar finish in the top 3 at the 2026 Paris-Roubaix Hauts-de-France? | Yes | 60.0¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | $27 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Mathieu van der Poel finish in the top 3 at the 2026 Paris-Roubaix Hauts-de-France? | Yes | 55.0¢ | 0¢ | $-10 | $55 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Yes | 57.3¢ | 100¢ | $-155 | $345 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be 20 or more on April 12, 2026? | Yes | 27.1¢ | 0¢ | +$37 | $27 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Christine Fréchette be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 CAQ leadership elections? | Yes | 84.0¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $84 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | Yes | 33.0¢ | 0¢ | $-4 | $33 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Bernard Drainville be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 CAQ leadership elections? | Yes | 14.2¢ | 0¢ | $-10 | $27 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 35.7¢ | 18¢ | $-11 | $180 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 11, 2026? | No | 78.0¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | $23 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will the number of US flights delayed on April 10 be between 4,000 and 4,500? | Yes | 1.8¢ | 0¢ | $-27 | $27 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will Melania say "Family" during statement on April 9? | Yes | 60.9¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | $20 | 09/04/2026 |
| Will Melania say "Law" or "Order" during statement on April 9? | Yes | 19.9¢ | 0¢ | $-33 | $33 | 09/04/2026 |
| Will JD Vance say "God" 3+ times during meetings with Orbán? | Yes | 44.0¢ | 100¢ | +$38 | $30 | 08/04/2026 |
| Will JD Vance say "Trump" during meetings with Orbán? | Yes | 88.0¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $88 | 08/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Courage" or "Brave" during events with Rutte? | Yes | 11.0¢ | 0¢ | $-3 | $22 | 08/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Pakistan" or "Pakistani" during events with Rutte? | Yes | 20.0¢ | 0¢ | $-40 | $60 | 08/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 7.7¢ | 100¢ | +$199 | $123 | 07/04/2026 |
| Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? | No | 57.0¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | $57 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from March 31 to April 7, 2026? | Yes | 52.6¢ | 0¢ | $-18 | $54 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Easter" or "Egg" during Monday news conference? | Yes | 62.0¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | $62 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will Trump post "Epic Fury" on Truth Social this week? | Yes | 8.6¢ | 0¢ | $-12 | $20 | 05/04/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? | No | 24.2¢ | 100¢ | +$57 | $157 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? | No | 6.4¢ | 100¢ | +$50 | $26 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? | No | 14.6¢ | 0¢ | +$24 | $172 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31? | Yes | 34.7¢ | 0¢ | +$17 | $80 | 31/03/2026 |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30? | Yes | 25.0¢ | 28¢ | +$14 | $50 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will any European country expel an Israeli ambassador by March 31? | Yes | 6.4¢ | 0¢ | +$14 | $50 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | Yes | 16.0¢ | 0¢ | +$8 | $100 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | Yes | 58.0¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $58 | 31/03/2026 |
| Military action against Iran ends on March 29, 2026? | Yes | 1.7¢ | 0¢ | +$5 | $25 | 31/03/2026 |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? | Yes | 10.0¢ | 0¢ | +$5 | $30 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | Yes | 35.0¢ | 0¢ | +$4 | $24 | 31/03/2026 |
| U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by March 31? | Yes | 14.8¢ | 0¢ | +$3 | $23 | 31/03/2026 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 31? | No | 64.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $32 | 31/03/2026 |
| Military action against Iran ends on March 28, 2026? | Yes | 1.7¢ | 0¢ | $-4 | $82 | 31/03/2026 |
| US announces military support of Iran opposition by March 31? | Yes | 16.0¢ | 0¢ | $-6 | $32 | 31/03/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? | Yes | 18.1¢ | 0¢ | $-12 | $38 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump or Melania say "Chicago" at Chicago Opening Night? | Yes | 65.0¢ | 0¢ | $-26 | $26 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 28, 2026? | Yes | 1.5¢ | 0¢ | $-29 | $62 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Karoline Leavitt be less than 15 minutes late to the next press briefing? | Yes | 42.0¢ | 0¢ | $-33 | $33 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Italy win on 2026-03-31? | Yes | 81.0¢ | 0¢ | $-81 | $81 | 31/03/2026 |
| Over 500 US flights cancelled on March 28? | Yes | 23.2¢ | 0¢ | $-39 | $39 | 28/03/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Epic Fury" during the FII PRIORITY Summit? | Yes | 21.9¢ | 100¢ | +$131 | $37 | 27/03/2026 |
| Will Trump's remarks not air? | Yes | 1.5¢ | 0¢ | +$75 | $32 | 27/03/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Hormuz" during the FII PRIORITY Summit? | Yes | 44.0¢ | 100¢ | +$44 | $35 | 27/03/2026 |
| Will less than 8000 US flights be delayed on March 25? | Yes | 62.0¢ | 100¢ | +$36 | $62 | 26/03/2026 |