Win rate
77.6%
52 W / 15 L
Total PnL
$3,122
realized $-1,814 · unrealized $4,936
Portfolio
$4,936
volume $440,069
Predictions
66
1.0/day · avg $6,668
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 23/10/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Other 89% +$1,516
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Tim Walz resign by December 31, 2026? | No | 85¢ | 92¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Kash Patel out by June 30? | No | 88¢ | 70¢ | +$4 | win |
| Starmer out by April 30, 2026? | No | 92¢ | 92¢ | +$0 | win |
| Khamenei seen in public by March 2? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$24 | win |
| Will the DHS shutdown last 5 days or more? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 13? | No | 87¢ | 100¢ | +$60 | win |
| Will Alex Honnold not complete a free solo of Taipei 101 by January 31? | No | 88¢ | 100¢ | +$157 | win |
| Will Zcash hit $1000 by December 31? | No | 66¢ | 100¢ | +$599 | win |
| Pump.fun all time high by December 31? | No | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$41 | win |
| Maduro out in 2025? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$107 | win |
Crypto 92% +$694
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026? | No | 77¢ | 72¢ | +$50 | win |
| Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in January? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Base launch a token in 2025? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | win |
| Will Bitcoin hit $100k or $120k first? | 100k | 63¢ | 100¢ | +$235 | win |
| Will Abstract launch a token in 2025? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Ethereum hit $7,000 by December 31? | No | 91¢ | 100¢ | $-48 | loss |
Geopolitics 80% +$662
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | Yes | 49¢ | 30¢ | $-218 | loss |
| Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | No | 96¢ | 97¢ | +$1 | win |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by April 30? | Yes | 7¢ | 8¢ | +$204 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | No | 88¢ | 99¢ | +$307 | win |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by April 30? | No | 92¢ | 92¢ | +$1 | win |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | No | 61¢ | 54¢ | +$40 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | No | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$101 | win |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6? | No | 84¢ | 100¢ | +$80 | win |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| US forces enter Iran by March 14? | No | 85¢ | 100¢ | +$102 | win |
Elections 40% +$308
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | $-35 | loss |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 85¢ | 84¢ | $-10 | loss |
| Will Mark Sutcliffe win the 2026 Ottawa mayoral election? | Yes | 77¢ | 60¢ | $-24 | loss |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Yes | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$374 | win |
| Will Sarah Knafo win the Paris mayor election? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
Economy 100% +$140
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$99 | win |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | Yes | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | win |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? | Yes | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$26 | win |
Politics 50% +$73
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | +$43 | win |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | No | 77¢ | 84¢ | $-12 | loss |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by March 31, 2026? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Trump say "Six Seven" in Corpus Christi on Friday? | No | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | win |
| Will Donald Trump be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Trump create a tariff dividend in 2025? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | $-23 | loss |
| Will None in 2025 occur? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
Sports 67% +$33
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card) | Makhachev | 73¢ | 100¢ | +$37 | win |
| Dodgers vs. Blue Jays | Dodgers | 57¢ | 100¢ | +$30 | win |
| Aspinall vs. Gane | Aspinall | 76¢ | 50¢ | $-34 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? | No | 92.0¢ | 100¢ | +$22 | $280 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? | No | 94.0¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | $338 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? | No | 97.2¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $170 | 01/04/2026 |
| Kash Patel out by March 31? | No | 90.9¢ | 100¢ | +$177 | $2,736 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | No | 93.1¢ | 100¢ | +$101 | $1,873 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6? | No | 84.0¢ | 100¢ | +$80 | $420 | 31/03/2026 |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by March 31, 2026? | No | 96.6¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $400 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? | No | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $100 | 31/03/2026 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 16? | No | 66.0¢ | 100¢ | +$235 | $692 | 16/03/2026 |
| Khamenei seen in public by March 7? | No | 95.5¢ | 100¢ | +$33 | $1,589 | 14/03/2026 |
| Khamenei seen in public by March 2? | No | 95.9¢ | 100¢ | +$24 | $996 | 14/03/2026 |
| Will the DHS shutdown last 5 days or more? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $125 | 14/03/2026 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 13? | No | 87.4¢ | 100¢ | +$60 | $437 | 13/03/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in February? | No | 85.8¢ | 100¢ | +$146 | $1,118 | 01/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 14? | No | 85.0¢ | 100¢ | +$102 | $680 | 01/03/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February? | No | 98.3¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $2,853 | 01/03/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? | No | 99.7¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $1,574 | 01/03/2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026? | Yes | 4.2¢ | 0¢ | $-14 | $25 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Kamala" in Corpus Christi on Friday? | No | 67.3¢ | 100¢ | +$47 | $139 | 27/02/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Six Seven" in Corpus Christi on Friday? | No | 91.2¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $190 | 27/02/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in January? | No | 96.9¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $500 | 01/02/2026 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? | No | 99.3¢ | 100¢ | +$99 | $5,363 | 28/01/2026 |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | Yes | 96.3¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | $800 | 28/01/2026 |
| Will Alex Honnold not complete a free solo of Taipei 101 by January 31? | No | 88.4¢ | 100¢ | +$157 | $1,200 | 23/01/2026 |
| Will Zcash hit $1000 by December 31? | No | 66.5¢ | 100¢ | +$599 | $1,400 | 01/01/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin hit $100k or $120k first? | 100k | 63.0¢ | 100¢ | +$235 | $400 | 01/01/2026 |
| Pump.fun all time high by December 31? | No | 90.4¢ | 100¢ | +$41 | $700 | 01/01/2026 |
| Will Base launch a token in 2025? | No | 99.5¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | $7,066 | 01/01/2026 |
| Will Abstract launch a token in 2025? | No | 99.5¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $189 | 01/01/2026 |
| Maduro out in 2025? | No | 99.4¢ | 100¢ | +$107 | $3,722 | 31/12/2025 |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? | No | 82.6¢ | 100¢ | +$61 | $1,000 | 31/12/2025 |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | Yes | 2.1¢ | 0¢ | +$48 | $500 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Donald Trump be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? | No | 94.0¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $300 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Trump create a tariff dividend in 2025? | No | 97.0¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $2,265 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried in 2025? | No | 90.8¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | $500 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? | No | 94.3¢ | 100¢ | $-23 | $3,395 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Ethereum hit $7,000 by December 31? | No | 91.0¢ | 100¢ | $-48 | $1,100 | 31/12/2025 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | Yes | 13.0¢ | 0¢ | $-62 | $160 | 31/12/2025 |
| UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card) | Makhachev | 73.0¢ | 100¢ | +$37 | $100 | 16/11/2025 |
| Dodgers vs. Blue Jays | Dodgers | 57.0¢ | 100¢ | +$30 | $40 | 08/11/2025 |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Yes | 94.5¢ | 100¢ | +$374 | $6,559 | 04/11/2025 |
| Aspinall vs. Gane | Aspinall | 76.0¢ | 50¢ | $-34 | $100 | 01/11/2025 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? | Yes | 96.0¢ | 100¢ | +$26 | $1,400 | 29/10/2025 |
| Will the Bank of Canada announce a 25 bps decrease at the October meeting? | Yes | 85.0¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | $300 | 29/10/2025 |
| Will Sarah Knafo win the Paris mayor election? | No | 98.2¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $1,300 | 01/01/1970 |
| Will None in 2025 occur? | Yes | 96.9¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | $160 | 01/01/1970 |
| Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? | No | 58.0¢ | 60¢ | +$2 | $35 | 01/01/1970 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | No | 61.0¢ | 54¢ | +$40 | $2,440 | 22/04/2026 |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by April 30? | Yes | 7.0¢ | 8¢ | +$204 | $1,016 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | No | 88.5¢ | 99¢ | +$307 | $3,008 | 30/04/2026 |