0xsakamoto

Geopolitics 71% +$783 $2,125 vol · 31 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	63¢	66¢	+$1	win
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?	Yes	94¢	98¢	+$2	win
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	82¢	90¢	+$0	win
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	71¢	78¢	+$11	win
Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026?	Yes	98¢	100¢	+$5	win
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	Yes	46¢	100¢	+$4	win
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	No	41¢	0¢	$-11	loss
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 10, 2026?	No	98¢	100¢	+$0	win
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	Yes	85¢	52¢	$-1	loss
US announces military support of Iran opposition by April 30?	Yes	33¢	3¢	$-9	loss

Other 60% +$35 $648 vol · 10 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by December 31?	Yes	94¢	95¢	+$0	win
Adam Back confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31?	No	95¢	96¢	+$0	win
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	99¢	99¢	$-0	loss
Tony Gonzales out as US Rep by May 31?	Yes	99¢	100¢	$-0	loss
DeepSeek V4 released by May 15?	Yes	82¢	92¢	+$4	win
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	Yes	94¢	100¢	+$3	win
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	39¢	76¢	+$96	win
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	48¢	24¢	$-51	loss
Will "Donk" be said during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final?	No	94¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will "Donk" be said during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final?	Yes	12¢	0¢	$-18	loss

Elections 100% +$19 $120 vol · 1 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?	No	83¢	100¢	+$19	win

Politics 60% +$15 $330 vol · 5 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?	No	90¢	100¢	+$17	win
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026?	No	92¢	100¢	+$1	win
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?	Yes	12¢	0¢	$-4	loss
Will Trump attend UFC 327?	Yes	98¢	100¢	+$1	win

Finance 0% $-3 $20 vol · 1 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	20¢	28¢	$-3	loss

Crypto 54% $-299 $8,062 vol · 196 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Up	45¢	100¢	+$50	win
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Up	44¢	100¢	+$50	win
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	Down	49¢	100¢	+$50	win
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Up	39¢	100¢	+$42	win
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	Up	46¢	100¢	+$37	win
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Up	46¢	100¢	+$29	win
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Up	43¢	100¢	+$27	win
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Down	84¢	100¢	+$18	win
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Down	58¢	100¢	+$15	win
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	Down	77¢	100¢	+$12	win