Win rate
82.6%
1183 W / 249 L
Total PnL
$18,883
realized $4,673 · unrealized $14,210
Portfolio
$14,210
volume $1,519,999
Predictions
1,738
8.0/day · avg $875
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 22/08/2024 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 80% +$10,040
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 65¢ | 84¢ | +$138 | win |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 66¢ | 78¢ | +$60 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Yes | 52¢ | 16¢ | +$19 | win |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Yes | 13¢ | 9¢ | +$10 | win |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? | Yes | 46¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| Iran Nuke before 2027? | No | 84¢ | 91¢ | +$9 | win |
| Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished? | Yes | 8¢ | 0¢ | $-39 | loss |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | Yes | 26¢ | 30¢ | $-52 | loss |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | No | 46¢ | 0¢ | $-140 | loss |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | Yes | 32¢ | 6¢ | +$165 | win |
Elections 90% +$3,660
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 50¢ | 1¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 50¢ | 38¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 50¢ | 83¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 50¢ | 62¢ | +$0 | — |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | Yes | 40¢ | 52¢ | +$89 | win |
| Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? | No | 59¢ | 64¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 70¢ | 92¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 59¢ | 66¢ | +$75 | win |
| Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 63¢ | 100¢ | +$56 | win |
| Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Politics 86% +$3,528
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 42¢ | 39¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | No | 50¢ | 61¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 5¢ | 6¢ | +$20 | win |
| Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration before 2027? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | win |
| Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 12¢ | 0¢ | $-21 | loss |
| Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize? | Yes | 74¢ | 100¢ | +$29 | win |
| Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in 2026? | No | 21¢ | 29¢ | +$19 | win |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | 86¢ | 92¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Pam Bondi be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
Other 82% +$1,623
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? | No | 74¢ | 70¢ | $-12 | loss |
| Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch? | No | 18¢ | 0¢ | $-114 | loss |
| Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch? | Yes | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$28 | win |
| Flying Tulip FDV above $1B one day after launch? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch? | Yes | 11¢ | 0¢ | $-110 | loss |
| Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 by December 31, 2026? | No | 32¢ | 62¢ | +$83 | win |
| Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? | No | 70¢ | 57¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | Yes | 14¢ | 18¢ | +$40 | win |
| SEC removes quarterly reporting requirement? | No | 63¢ | 69¢ | +$39 | win |
| Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? | No | 94¢ | 92¢ | +$20 | win |
Finance 86% +$496
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 8? | Up | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by March 31? | Yes | 7¢ | 0¢ | $-5 | loss |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 2? | Up | 19¢ | 0¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by March 31, 2026? | No | 15¢ | 0¢ | +$10 | win |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 18? | Up | 55¢ | 100¢ | +$45 | win |
| Will SOLV Energy, Inc.'s market cap be greater than $5.4B at market close on IPO day? | Yes | 28¢ | 100¢ | +$65 | win |
| Will SOLV Energy, Inc.'s market cap be less than $3.8B at market close on IPO day? | No | 20¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | win |
| Will Netflix say "Warner Bros" during earnings call? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| NYSE marketwide circuit breaker in 2025? | Yes | 40¢ | 0¢ | +$165 | win |
| Will Cluely declare bankruptcy in 2025? | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
Tech 90% +$446
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.5 released by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 96¢ | 97¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by April 15? | Yes | 82¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | win |
| Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 8? | Yes | 61¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will "The Epstein Files" reach #1 on Apple Podcast by March 15? | No | 66¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
| Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by February 28? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026? | Yes | 64¢ | 0¢ | +$2 | win |
| GPT-5.3 released by February 20, 2026? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? | Yes | 20¢ | 0¢ | $-46 | loss |
| Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $400 on February 18? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $410 on February 18? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Sports 80% +$415
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Henri Bontenbal become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? | No | 45¢ | 100¢ | +$131 | win |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Yes | 6¢ | 15¢ | +$146 | win |
| Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? | Yes | 1¢ | 2¢ | +$14 | win |
| Will Kon Knueppel win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? | Yes | 64¢ | 31¢ | $-12 | loss |
| Will Houston Rockets advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs? | No | 15¢ | 16¢ | +$3 | win |
| Mavericks vs. Spurs | Spurs | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will the United States win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? | Yes | 25¢ | 0¢ | $-50 | loss |
| Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on February 18? | Down | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? | Yes | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | win |
| Will J.D. Vance attend Super Bowl LX? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
Mentions 100% +$367
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Khamenei tweet again on March 9, 2026? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Khamenei tweet again by March 4? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Elon tweet 500 or more times June 6–13? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Elon tweet 400 or more times Oct 25 - Nov 1? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Elon tweet 175-199 times Oct 25 - Nov 1? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Elon tweet 175-199 times? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Elon tweet less than 100 times? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will Elon tweet 175-199 times? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Kamala mentions McDonald’s again before debate? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Elon tweet 260-279 times? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | win |
Economy 69% +$187
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? | Yes | 74¢ | 100¢ | +$260 | win |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? | Yes | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$25 | win |
| No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | Yes | 8¢ | 0¢ | $-4 | loss |
| No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | loss |
| No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting? | No | 23¢ | 0¢ | $-150 | loss |
| No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting? | Yes | 88¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
| No change in Fed interest rates after May 2025 meeting? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Negative GDP growth in Q1 2025? | No | 44¢ | 0¢ | $-42 | loss |
Weather 100% +$4
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Earthquake 7.0 or above in April? | No | 50¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
Culture 67% $-2
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will "Hoppers" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 46m and 50m? | Yes | 59¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | loss |
| Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90m? | Yes | 68¢ | 100¢ | +$23 | win |
| Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 123m? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
Crypto 78% $-1,591
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? | $60k | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
| Will Opinion launch a token by February 17, 2026? | No | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
| Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 16¢ | 18¢ | +$100 | win |
| Will Geert Wilders become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? | Yes | 7¢ | 0¢ | $-59 | loss |
| Grok memecoin wallet hits $1M before April? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 February 2-8? | Yes | 4¢ | 0¢ | $-50 | loss |
| Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? | No | 19¢ | 37¢ | +$15 | win |
| Will Jensen Huang say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during NVIDIA keynote? | No | 73¢ | 100¢ | +$32 | win |
| Will Rabby launch a token in 2025? | No | 59¢ | 100¢ | +$41 | win |
| Over $4B committed to the MegaETH public sale? | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | $-21 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? | Yes | 20.0¢ | 0¢ | $-40 | $40 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the top AI model on April 17, 2026 (Style Control On)? | No | 6.9¢ | 0¢ | $-22 | $22 | 17/04/2026 |
| Trump announces Attorney General pick by April 17, 2026? | No | 98.9¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | $27 | 17/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | Yes | 91.1¢ | 100¢ | +$51 | $566 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by April 15? | Yes | 82.0¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $50 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 95.2¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $381 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | No | 94.0¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $94 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 19.3¢ | 0¢ | $-58 | $58 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026? | No | 88.0¢ | 100¢ | +$24 | $176 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Yes | 85.0¢ | 99¢ | +$143 | $850 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 63.0¢ | 100¢ | +$56 | $252 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | Yes | 29.0¢ | 1¢ | +$9 | $261 | 12/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 11, 2026? | Yes | 91.0¢ | 100¢ | +$27 | $273 | 11/04/2026 |
| Mavericks vs. Spurs | Spurs | 98.2¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $196 | 11/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 10? | Yes | 89.0¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $22 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | $-156 | $500 | 10/04/2026 |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 8? | Up | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $205 | 08/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 5.9¢ | 100¢ | +$932 | $59 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | Yes | 47.5¢ | 90¢ | +$577 | $817 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by April 3? | Yes | 80.0¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $40 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 8? | Yes | 61.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $46 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Address to the Nation? | No | 97.3¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $167 | 01/04/2026 |
| Grok memecoin wallet hits $1M before April? | No | 95.8¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $22 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will the government shutdown last 4 days or more? | Yes | 99.7¢ | 100¢ | +$152 | $781 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Jay-Z be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31? | Yes | 71.9¢ | 100¢ | +$137 | $350 | 31/03/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | Yes | 86.7¢ | 100¢ | +$132 | $877 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the DHS shutdown end after March 31, 2026? | Yes | 62.9¢ | 100¢ | +$116 | $196 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more? | Yes | 25.9¢ | 0¢ | +$96 | $196 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31? | Yes | 85.0¢ | 100¢ | +$91 | $517 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 17.0¢ | 0¢ | +$81 | $476 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Artemis II launch by March 31? | No | 59.0¢ | 100¢ | +$78 | $118 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Ellen Degeneres be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31? | Yes | 25.3¢ | 100¢ | +$77 | $26 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Piers Morgan be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31? | Yes | 26.0¢ | 100¢ | +$74 | $26 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 8? | Yes | 90.0¢ | 100¢ | +$71 | $1,581 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Jimmy Kimmel be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31? | Yes | 33.8¢ | 100¢ | +$68 | $35 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? | No | 94.6¢ | 100¢ | +$34 | $599 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31? | Yes | 93.0¢ | 100¢ | +$29 | $383 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Sean Combs be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31? | Yes | 90.0¢ | 100¢ | +$29 | $256 | 31/03/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? | No | 87.0¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | $326 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026? | No | 19.5¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | $34 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th? | No | 64.0¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $29 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Stephen Colbert be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31? | Yes | 98.9¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $935 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 93.2¢ | 0¢ | +$10 | $373 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Kirsten Gillibrand be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31? | Yes | 98.9¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $819 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Epstein Data Set 13 be released by March 31? | No | 71.0¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $21 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 20, 2026? | Yes | 92.2¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $97 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Stephen Hawking be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31? | Yes | 93.8¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $122 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran first? | US | 46.1¢ | 50¢ | +$8 | $92 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | No | 99.5¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $1,443 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 99.2¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $992 | 31/03/2026 |