Kalags

Geopolitics 61% +$13,924 $357,367 vol · 144 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	No	31¢	0¢	+$103	win
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	Yes	40¢	100¢	+$90	win
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?	Yes	11¢	0¢	$-12	loss
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	39¢	84¢	+$5	win
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?	No	46¢	0¢	$-12	loss
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	No	29¢	0¢	$-27	loss
Will Iran legalize gay marriage?	Yes	2¢	2¢	+$1	win
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	71¢	76¢	+$25	win
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	Yes	6¢	10¢	+$846	win
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	8¢	6¢	+$86	win

Politics 72% +$9,629 $144,752 vol · 91 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	1¢	1¢	+$0	—
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	62¢	61¢	$-62	loss
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?	No	41¢	100¢	$-6	loss
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	Yes	100¢	100¢	$-45	loss
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	87¢	92¢	$-75	loss
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	Yes	52¢	40¢	$-16	loss
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	Yes	29¢	1¢	+$504	win
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15?	Yes	2¢	0¢	+$91	win
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15?	No	79¢	100¢	+$25	win
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from March 27 to April 3, 2026?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$-3	loss

Other 67% +$2,994 $176,252 vol · 168 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX?	No	83¢	98¢	+$2	win
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	50¢	100¢	+$17	win
Over $15M committed to the Trove public sale?	Yes	9¢	0¢	$-56	loss
Ranger FDV above $30M one day after launch?	Yes	11¢	0¢	$-57	loss
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	No	73¢	84¢	+$2,241	win
US strike on Cuba by March 31?	No	96¢	100¢	+$25	win
Will Jurgen Klopp be appointed as manager of Real Madrid?	No	63¢	89¢	+$21	win
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	73¢	76¢	+$20	win
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31?	No	99¢	100¢	+$3	win
Will the US not strike another country before 2027?	Yes	1¢	0¢	$-26	loss

Esports 61% +$1,815 $193,753 vol · 146 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs	Vitality	74¢	100¢	+$90	win
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner	Natus Vincere	6¢	0¢	$-30	loss
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs	MOUZ	17¢	0¢	$-256	loss
Counter-Strike: RED Canids vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner	RED Canids	16¢	0¢	$-16	loss
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A	Team Falcons	53¢	100¢	+$29	win
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner	B8	100¢	100¢	+$13	win
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A	Vitality	34¢	100¢	$-1	loss
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B	Natus Vincere	93¢	100¢	$-230	loss
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A	Spirit	1¢	0¢	$-24	loss
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Liquid (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A	Liquid	6¢	0¢	+$1,089	win

Sports 74% +$1,184 $11,108 vol · 34 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	50¢	0¢	+$0	—
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	50¢	100¢	+$0	—
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs	Maple Leafs	41¢	0¢	$-205	loss
Jets vs. Blackhawks	Jets	57¢	100¢	+$150	win
Hurricanes vs. Blue Jackets	Hurricanes	54¢	100¢	+$138	win
Blues vs. Sharks	Blues	50¢	0¢	$-201	loss
Devils vs. Rangers	Devils	53¢	0¢	$-212	loss
Blackhawks vs. Devils	Devils	59¢	100¢	+$246	win
Avalanche vs. Jets	Jets	37¢	0¢	$-74	loss
Blackhawks vs. Flyers	Flyers	56¢	100¢	+$305	win

Elections 55% +$729 $80,148 vol · 64 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	50¢	1¢	$-477	loss
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	50¢	99¢	+$0	—
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	18¢	16¢	+$0	—
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	18¢	16¢	+$-0	—
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	66¢	66¢	+$129	win
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	30¢	25¢	$-12	loss
Will Trump say "Voter ID" during Cabinet meeting on March 26?	No	30¢	100¢	+$70	win
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?	No	28¢	10¢	$-8	loss
Will The Greens win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?	No	39¢	100¢	+$89	win
Will The Greens win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?	Yes	78¢	0¢	$-888	loss

Culture 62% +$570 $2,397 vol · 8 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 80m and 85m?	Yes	45¢	100¢	+$216	win
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	78¢	100¢	+$8	win
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	7¢	0¢	$-4	loss
Will Sean Penn win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	No	22¢	0¢	$-94	loss
Will Mathieu "ZywOo" Herbaut win the HLTV Player of the Year award?	No	5¢	0¢	+$100	win
Will "Christmas Gameday: Lions vs. Vikings" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (December 30, 2025)	No	56¢	100¢	+$53	win
Fact check: Was it a rogue actor?	Yes	95¢	100¢	$-1	loss

Tech 69% +$488 $12,174 vol · 16 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $195 on April 14?	Yes	91¢	100¢	+$6	win
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?	Yes	99¢	100¢	+$23	win
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?	No	2¢	0¢	$-111	loss
Over $100M committed to the Ranger public sale?	Yes	37¢	0¢	$-54	loss
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?	No	45¢	100¢	+$98	win
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	9¢	0¢	+$73	win
Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?	No	31¢	100¢	+$32	win
Will Bianca Censori be the #1 searched person on Google this year?	Yes	12¢	0¢	$-116	loss
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 5?	No	27¢	100¢	+$105	win
Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 5?	No	50¢	0¢	$-51	loss

Economy 67% +$418 $15,798 vol · 4 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?	Yes	84¢	100¢	+$120	win
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?	No	30¢	0¢	+$0	—
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?	Yes	6¢	0¢	$-10	loss
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting?	Yes	98¢	100¢	+$308	win

Weather 100% +$28 $4,301 vol · 1 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	No	94¢	96¢	+$28	win

Finance 40% $-83 $4,177 vol · 5 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	79¢	75¢	$-23	loss
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in March 2026 (ET)?	No	76¢	100¢	+$25	win
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 14?	Down	1¢	0¢	$-26	loss
Will SOLV Energy, Inc.'s market cap be greater than $5.4B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	100¢	100¢	+$3	win
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker in August?	Yes	40¢	0¢	$-62	loss

Crypto 69% $-464 $14,515 vol · 35 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	Yes	8¢	8¢	+$807	win
Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first?	70k	88¢	100¢	+$16	win
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	89¢	92¢	$-747	loss
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Down	48¢	0¢	+$12	win
Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31?	Yes	92¢	100¢	+$8	win
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Down	42¢	0¢	$-29	loss
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Up	88¢	100¢	+$5	win
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Up	75¢	100¢	+$9	win
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Down	42¢	100¢	+$6	win
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Up	77¢	100¢	+$39	win