0xb8d7...a707

Politics 60% +$2 $212 vol · 5 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 13, 2026?	No	95¢	100¢	+$2	win
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026?	No	95¢	94¢	$-0	loss
Will Trump's remarks not air?	No	99¢	100¢	+$0	win

Other 55% $-78 $686 vol · 11 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	44¢	18¢	$-72	loss
Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	91¢	92¢	+$0	win
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	69¢	40¢	$-10	loss
Will Anthropic have the second-best Coding AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	92¢	93¢	+$0	win
Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19?	No	88¢	61¢	+$4	win
Will 60 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12?	No	72¢	100¢	+$28	win
Will 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8–12?	Yes	73¢	100¢	+$13	win
Will 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8–12?	No	20¢	0¢	+$8	win
Will 30-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12?	Yes	16¢	0¢	$-27	loss

Geopolitics 38% $-111 $1,354 vol · 8 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?	No	88¢	88¢	$-0	loss
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	48¢	76¢	+$19	win
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	80¢	72¢	$-21	loss
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	No	96¢	99¢	+$12	win
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?	No	87¢	100¢	$-108	loss
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?	Yes	89¢	100¢	+$7	win
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026?	No	76¢	100¢	$-0	loss
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026?	Yes	31¢	0¢	$-20	loss