Win rate
41.1%
23 W / 33 L
Total PnL
$-38,167
realized $-112,600 · unrealized $74,433
Portfolio
$74,433
volume $611,435
Predictions
61
1.8/day · avg $10,024
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 12/01/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | no |
Category breakdown
Politics 100% +$1,698
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? | No | 26¢ | 22¢ | +$19 | win |
Other 0% $-44
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | Yes | 16¢ | 1¢ | $-44 | loss |
Geopolitics 38% $-50,827
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027? | Yes | 14¢ | 16¢ | +$126 | win |
| US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | No | 41¢ | 22¢ | +$9 | win |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Yes | 33¢ | 70¢ | +$373 | win |
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? | No | 41¢ | 0¢ | $-186 | loss |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 46¢ | 82¢ | +$8,565 | win |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | No | 51¢ | 22¢ | $-654 | loss |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | No | 54¢ | 70¢ | +$400 | win |
| Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 51¢ | 38¢ | $-159 | loss |
| Will Russia enter Orikhiv by June 30? | Yes | 29¢ | 22¢ | $-23 | loss |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | 59¢ | 94¢ | +$9,523 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | No | 39.6¢ | 10¢ | +$259 | $1,000 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | No | 79.1¢ | 0¢ | $-4,521 | $4,974 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | Yes | 16.0¢ | 1¢ | $-44 | $80 | 12/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 76.0¢ | 0¢ | $-352 | $376 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | No | 73.7¢ | 100¢ | +$7,409 | $22,113 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31? | No | 85.7¢ | 100¢ | +$5,789 | $34,675 | 31/03/2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? | No | 88.2¢ | 100¢ | +$750 | $8,200 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30? | Yes | 38.0¢ | 9¢ | $-16 | $59 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia enter Orikhiv by March 31? | Yes | 24.0¢ | 0¢ | $-26 | $61 | 31/03/2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026? | No | 98.6¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | $1,520 | 28/02/2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? | No | 97.1¢ | 100¢ | +$73 | $4,291 | 31/01/2026 |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by January 31? | No | 92.9¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $834 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will Russia capture Lyman by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 51.6¢ | 0¢ | $-3 | $63 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Russia capture Lyman by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 36.0¢ | 2¢ | $-88 | $126 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 72.5¢ | 60¢ | $-419 | $2,436 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 48.0¢ | 19¢ | $-45 | $74 | 31/12/2025 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | No | 81.0¢ | 100¢ | +$160 | $682 | 01/01/1970 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | No | 58.5¢ | 0¢ | $-5,081 | $5,196 | 01/01/1970 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | No | 90.4¢ | 62¢ | $-3,425 | $10,720 | 22/04/2026 |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? | No | 87.2¢ | 53¢ | $-6,746 | $17,367 | 30/04/2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | No | 83.5¢ | 46¢ | $-5,540 | $12,163 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | No | 97.5¢ | 99¢ | +$356 | $10,044 | 30/04/2026 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? | No | 72.0¢ | 43¢ | $-1,062 | $2,604 | 30/04/2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | No | 94.9¢ | 99¢ | +$135 | $3,185 | 30/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | No | 39.7¢ | 45¢ | +$1,320 | $2,764 | 30/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? | No | 36.0¢ | 8¢ | $-166 | $1,104 | 30/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by May 15? | No | 38.4¢ | 0¢ | $-1,004 | $1,006 | 15/05/2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | No | 59.8¢ | 35¢ | $-4,729 | $11,405 | 31/05/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? | No | 44.1¢ | 0¢ | $-10,209 | $10,666 | 31/05/2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | No | 41.5¢ | 22¢ | $-3,233 | $7,067 | 31/05/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? | No | 26.0¢ | 22¢ | +$19 | $67 | 31/05/2026 |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | No | 71.3¢ | 24¢ | $-12,039 | $18,141 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30? | Yes | 54.3¢ | 26¢ | $-1,232 | $2,694 | 30/06/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? | No | 38.1¢ | 0¢ | $-16,933 | $17,449 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will Russia enter Kherson by June 30? | Yes | 4.0¢ | 4¢ | $-3 | $76 | 30/06/2026 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | No | 46.1¢ | 23¢ | $-184 | $373 | 30/06/2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | No | 86.0¢ | 90¢ | +$631 | $4,987 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30? | Yes | 27.9¢ | 11¢ | $-33 | $82 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | 58.5¢ | 94¢ | +$9,523 | $18,014 | 30/06/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? | No | 14.0¢ | 12¢ | +$359 | $663 | 30/06/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? | No | 46.0¢ | 0¢ | +$9 | $31 | 30/06/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026? | No | 24.0¢ | 0¢ | +$3 | $284 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will Russia enter Orikhiv by June 30? | Yes | 29.1¢ | 22¢ | $-23 | $52 | 30/06/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? | No | 7.8¢ | 2¢ | $-289 | $656 | 30/06/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | No | 41.5¢ | 0¢ | $-3,581 | $3,581 | 30/06/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? | No | 17.6¢ | 0¢ | $-3,301 | $3,318 | 31/12/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 46.1¢ | 82¢ | +$8,565 | $11,798 | 31/12/2026 |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 84.2¢ | 81¢ | $-149 | $4,405 | 31/12/2026 |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | No | 51.4¢ | 22¢ | $-654 | $1,163 | 31/12/2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | No | 54.0¢ | 70¢ | +$400 | $1,317 | 31/12/2026 |