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iusedtowritepoetryforaliving
0xb89f5425341719d298dc2f5b9a92374f5fde1c44 · polymarket profile ↗
Win rate
63.4%
357 W / 206 L
Total PnL
$44,909
realized $-12,532 · unrealized $57,441
Portfolio
$57,441
volume $1,787,719
Predictions
553
16.1/day · avg $3,233
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 10/01/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 74% +$22,408
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Hassan Khomeini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | Yes | 15¢ | 0¢ | $-489 | loss |
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? | Yes | 57¢ | 100¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? | No | 86¢ | 88¢ | +$23 | win |
| Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | $-229 | loss |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? | No | 51¢ | 0¢ | $-962 | loss |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 68¢ | 69¢ | +$565 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Yes | 19¢ | 18¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? | No | 2¢ | 0¢ | +$1,272 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | 71¢ | 94¢ | +$231 | win |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | $-1,174 | loss |
Other 57% +$11,246
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Uber ask Travis Kalanick back by June 30, 2027? | No | 85¢ | 94¢ | +$138 | win |
| Will MrBeast get married by December 31? | Yes | 50¢ | 63¢ | +$213 | win |
| Will Yoon Suk Yeol be sentenced to at least 30 years in prison? | Yes | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$198 | win |
| Will Yoon Suk Yeol be sentenced to at least 60 years in prison? | Yes | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$176 | win |
| Will Dick Schoof be the next leader out before 2027? | Yes | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$156 | win |
| Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? | No | 52¢ | 72¢ | +$100 | win |
| Will MrBeast get married by December 31? | No | 50¢ | 37¢ | +$36 | win |
| Cuban regime falls in 2026? | No | 57¢ | 66¢ | +$21 | win |
| Will Elon Musk get full custody of the St. Clair child? | No | 84¢ | 92¢ | +$20 | win |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Yes | 12¢ | 52¢ | +$5 | win |
Sports 68% +$6,239
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Hasanabi be unbanned from Twitch by March 31? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$32 | win |
| Will Jordan Stolz (USA) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - Men's 1000m at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics? | Yes | 86¢ | 100¢ | +$592 | win |
| Will Jenning De Boo (NED) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - Men's 500m at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics? | Yes | 9¢ | 0¢ | +$185 | win |
| Will Johannes Hoesflot Klaebo record the most medals at the 2026 Winter Olympics? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Joep Wennemars (NED) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - Men's 1000m at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | $-508 | loss |
| Will Sweden win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Curling - Women's at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics? | No | 57¢ | 0¢ | $-21 | loss |
| Will Switzerland win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Curling - Women's at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics? | Yes | 52¢ | 0¢ | $-653 | loss |
| Will Jutta Leerdam (NED) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - Women's 1000m at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics? | No | 50¢ | 0¢ | $-250 | loss |
| Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? | No | 33¢ | 0¢ | $-272 | loss |
| Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get at least 150M views in its first 7 days? | No | 71¢ | 100¢ | +$257 | win |
Politics 58% +$4,122
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 50¢ | 8¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 50¢ | 97¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Trump deport 800-900k people? | Yes | 11¢ | 2¢ | $-74 | loss |
| U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Vietnam" before 2027? | No | 75¢ | 85¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Trump deport 200-300k people? | No | 86¢ | 84¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026? | No | 82¢ | 87¢ | +$36 | win |
| U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Indonesia" before 2027? | Yes | 29¢ | 15¢ | +$25 | win |
| Will a new Cabinet of the Netherlands be sworn in by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$40 | win |
| Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? | Yes | 26¢ | 8¢ | $-14 | loss |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? | Yes | 21¢ | 36¢ | +$588 | win |
Tech 58% +$1,310
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Sabih Khan be the next CEO of Apple? | No | 76¢ | 96¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? | Yes | 43¢ | 37¢ | +$333 | win |
| Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027? | No | 68¢ | 76¢ | +$15 | win |
| Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026? | No | 24¢ | 8¢ | $-813 | loss |
| Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027? | Yes | 30¢ | 24¢ | +$20 | win |
| Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? | No | 34¢ | 63¢ | +$1,100 | win |
| Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? | No | 84¢ | 92¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? | No | 68¢ | 69¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | Yes | 4¢ | 0¢ | $-61 | loss |
| GPT-5.5 released by April 21, 2026? | No | 83¢ | 97¢ | +$18 | win |
Elections 91% +$663
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 50¢ | 4¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 50¢ | 95¢ | +$0 | — |
| 2026 U.S. Senate Election: Democrats flip Republicans by March 31? | Yes | 11¢ | 100¢ | +$204 | win |
| 2026 U.S. Senate Election: Democrats flip Republicans by March 31? | No | 74¢ | 0¢ | $-59 | loss |
| Left-Wing Wave in French Mayoral Elections? | Yes | 33¢ | 100¢ | +$254 | win |
| Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$45 | win |
| Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win <25 seats in the Slovenian National Assembly in this election? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$29 | win |
| Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the second most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win the second most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$86 | win |
Mentions 50% +$313
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Kanye tweet again by March 31? | Yes | 28¢ | 100¢ | +$406 | win |
| Will Kanye tweet again by March 31? | No | 72¢ | 0¢ | $-94 | loss |
Crypto 100% +$270
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Rob Jetten become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$122 | win |
| Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 4¢ | 2¢ | +$45 | win |
| Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31? | Yes | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$64 | win |
| Will CDA be part of the next Government of the Netherlands? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will BBB be part of the next Government of the Netherlands? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Esports 100% +$62
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Vitality (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage | Vitality | 69¢ | 100¢ | +$62 | win |
Culture 100% +$24
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Charli XCX release a new song in 2026? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | win |
| Will Bad Bunny win 0 Grammys? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
Finance 0% $-82
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? | No | 73¢ | 5¢ | $-82 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude 4.7 released by April 17? | No | 20.8¢ | 0¢ | +$83 | $60 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will gpt-5.4-high be the top AI model on April 17, 2026 (Style Control On)? | No | 99.6¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | $196 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will kimi-k2.5-thinking be the top AI model on April 17, 2026 (Style Control On)? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $208 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will gemini-3-pro be the top AI model on April 17, 2026 (Style Control On)? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $382 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will claude-opus-4-5-20251101-thinking-32k be the top AI model on April 17, 2026 (Style Control On)? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $361 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will gemini-2.5-pro be the top AI model on April 17, 2026 (Style Control On)? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $143 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will qwen3.5-max-preview be the top AI model on April 17, 2026 (Style Control On)? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $163 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will grok-4.20-beta-0309-reasoning be the top AI model on April 17, 2026 (Style Control On)? | No | 99.6¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $206 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will gpt-5.2-chat-latest-20260210 be the top AI model on April 17, 2026 (Style Control On)? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $434 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Anish Giri win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? | Yes | 8.0¢ | 0¢ | $-57 | $57 | 17/04/2026 |
| Claude 4.7 released by April 17? | Yes | 75.1¢ | 100¢ | $-64 | $463 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Tan Zhongyi win the 2026 FIDE Women's Candidates Tournament? | No | 97.2¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $167 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will someone else win the 2026 FIDE Women's Candidates Tournament? | Yes | 43.0¢ | 0¢ | $-24 | $24 | 17/04/2026 |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15? | Yes | 8.2¢ | 0¢ | +$485 | $219 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 84.0¢ | 100¢ | +$160 | $840 | 15/04/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | No | 87.0¢ | 100¢ | +$90 | $783 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 95.8¢ | 100¢ | +$82 | $1,876 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? | No | 62.9¢ | 100¢ | +$78 | $603 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | No | 90.0¢ | 0¢ | +$71 | $5,355 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? | No | 89.0¢ | 100¢ | +$60 | $1,780 | 15/04/2026 |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15? | No | 50.0¢ | 100¢ | $-263 | $411 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | Yes | 59.2¢ | 86¢ | +$522 | $2,210 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 17.3¢ | 2¢ | $-148 | $279 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 12, 2026? | No | 94.0¢ | 100¢ | +$53 | $823 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Yi Wei win on 2026-04-05 at FIDE Candidates 2026 Open? | Yes | 98.4¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $56 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will "Donk" be said during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final? | No | 77.1¢ | 100¢ | +$166 | $941 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will Justin Bieber drop out as a Coachella 2026 Headliner? | No | 95.2¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $190 | 11/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 10? | Yes | 84.7¢ | 100¢ | +$333 | $1,841 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | No | 98.3¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | $1,055 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will Javokhir Sindarov vs. Fabiano Caruana end in a draw? | No | 95.5¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $38 | 08/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 72.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1,068 | $3,575 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | No | 76.0¢ | 14¢ | $-92 | $1,150 | 07/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 86.8¢ | 0¢ | $-577 | $3,491 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | Yes | 88.4¢ | 86¢ | +$428 | $3,714 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will Grok 4.20 be released on February 17, 2026? | Yes | 79.5¢ | 100¢ | +$3,269 | $13,277 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 15? | Yes | 81.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1,368 | $6,262 | 31/03/2026 |
| France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? | No | 80.3¢ | 100¢ | +$1,220 | $7,820 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? | Yes | 56.6¢ | 100¢ | +$680 | $836 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will another country strike Iran by March 31? | Yes | 12.6¢ | 0¢ | +$595 | $200 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of March 2026? | Yes | 4.1¢ | 100¢ | +$522 | $22 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | Yes | 13.0¢ | 0¢ | +$447 | $619 | 31/03/2026 |
| US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31? | No | 78.6¢ | 100¢ | +$417 | $1,698 | 31/03/2026 |
| DeepSeek V4 released by March 15? | No | 33.4¢ | 100¢ | +$407 | $603 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Kanye tweet again by March 31? | Yes | 27.5¢ | 100¢ | +$406 | $235 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran leadership change by March 31? | No | 85.0¢ | 100¢ | +$385 | $3,322 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 75.0¢ | 100¢ | +$360 | $3,000 | 31/03/2026 |
| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by March 31? | No | 83.4¢ | 100¢ | +$319 | $2,045 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31? | No | 74.9¢ | 100¢ | +$298 | $1,589 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | No | 90.7¢ | 100¢ | +$261 | $2,721 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? | No | 94.7¢ | 100¢ | +$241 | $12,214 | 31/03/2026 |