Win rate
48.7%
19 W / 20 L
Total PnL
$-99
realized $-715 · unrealized $616
Portfolio
$616
volume $336,950
Predictions
56
2.3/day · avg $6,017
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 26/05/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 19/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 19/04/2026 |
| Qualified | no |
Category breakdown
Economy 100% +$21
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | Yes | 8¢ | 4¢ | +$12 | win |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? | No | 98¢ | 99¢ | +$9 | win |
Weather 100% +$2
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will San Jose Earthquakes win the 2026 MLS Cup? | No | 99¢ | 97¢ | +$2 | win |
Geopolitics 80% $-3
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | No | 92¢ | 91¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Yes | 9¢ | 9¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | No | 97¢ | 97¢ | +$0 | win |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? | Yes | 96¢ | 96¢ | $-12 | loss |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | Yes | 3¢ | 5¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | No | 96¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | — |
Elections 29% $-6
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 83¢ | 83¢ | $-1 | loss |
Sports 33% $-12
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 15¢ | 16¢ | $-9 | loss |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 89¢ | 89¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Yes | 15¢ | 15¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | No | 98¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? | Yes | 6¢ | 0¢ | +$3 | win |
Other 29% $-36
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Columbus Crew win the 2026 MLS Cup? | No | 98¢ | 97¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Columbus Crew win the 2026 MLS Cup? | Yes | 3¢ | 3¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? | Yes | 1¢ | 2¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? | No | 6¢ | 6¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? | Yes | 94¢ | 94¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? | No | 96¢ | 88¢ | $-0 | loss |
| GTA VI released before June 2026? | No | 96¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Yes | 12¢ | 12¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Netanyahu out by April 30? | Yes | 4¢ | 1¢ | $-8 | loss |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
Politics 55% $-70
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 97¢ | 97¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 3¢ | 3¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | Yes | 9¢ | 8¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Al Mina be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? | Yes | 14¢ | 1¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Denmark win the televote for Eurovision 2026? | Yes | 3¢ | 1¢ | $-27 | loss |
| Will Trump visit China by April 30? | Yes | 3¢ | 1¢ | +$2 | win |
| Trump out as President by April 30? | No | 98¢ | 99¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Trump visit China by April 30? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $-1 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? | No | 97.2¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $4,225 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? | Yes | 6.4¢ | 0¢ | +$3 | $383 | 04/04/2026 |
| Will the U.S. collect between $500b and $1t in revenue in 2025? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | $-25 | $8,067 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will Trump deport 250,000-500,000 people? | Yes | 93.1¢ | 100¢ | $-54 | $3,890 | 31/12/2025 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | Yes | 3.2¢ | 5¢ | +$6 | $67 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Trump visit China by April 30? | Yes | 2.9¢ | 1¢ | +$2 | $54 | 30/04/2026 |
| Trump out as President by April 30? | No | 98.0¢ | 99¢ | +$1 | $1,050 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | No | 96.2¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | $1,050 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Trump visit China by April 30? | No | 98.6¢ | 99¢ | $-1 | $3,267 | 30/04/2026 |
| Netanyahu out by April 30? | Yes | 3.6¢ | 1¢ | $-8 | $148 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Denmark win the televote for Eurovision 2026? | Yes | 3.3¢ | 1¢ | $-27 | $74 | 16/05/2026 |
| Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? | No | 98.1¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $1,058 | 31/05/2026 |
| GTA VI released before June 2026? | No | 96.2¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | $1,811 | 31/05/2026 |
| Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? | No | 96.3¢ | 88¢ | $-0 | $1,050 | 31/05/2026 |
| Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Yes | 11.9¢ | 12¢ | $-4 | $503 | 31/05/2026 |
| Will Al Mina be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? | Yes | 14.1¢ | 1¢ | +$4 | $268 | 16/06/2026 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? | No | 98.3¢ | 99¢ | +$9 | $1,061 | 17/06/2026 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | No | 96.6¢ | 97¢ | +$0 | $411 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | No | 97.8¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | $4,225 | 30/06/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? | Yes | 96.5¢ | 96¢ | $-12 | $2,106 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Yes | 14.6¢ | 15¢ | $-4 | $1,799 | 01/07/2026 |
| Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? | No | 98.2¢ | 98¢ | +$2 | $601 | 01/07/2026 |
| Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Yes | 1.0¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | $57 | 01/07/2026 |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Yes | 3.8¢ | 4¢ | +$0 | $82 | 01/07/2026 |
| Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? | No | 97.6¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $4,225 | 01/07/2026 |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Yes | 15.2¢ | 15¢ | $-4 | $1,232 | 01/07/2026 |
| Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 3.3¢ | 3¢ | +$0 | $21 | 20/07/2026 |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 12.9¢ | 11¢ | +$0 | $242 | 20/07/2026 |
| Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 96.7¢ | 97¢ | +$0 | $441 | 20/07/2026 |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 88.7¢ | 89¢ | $-0 | $1,164 | 20/07/2026 |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 15.4¢ | 16¢ | $-9 | $714 | 20/07/2026 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | Yes | 7.6¢ | 4¢ | +$12 | $156 | 29/07/2026 |
| Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? | No | 5.8¢ | 6¢ | +$3 | $57 | 31/10/2026 |
| Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? | Yes | 94.4¢ | 94¢ | +$2 | $2,788 | 31/10/2026 |
| Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? | Yes | 1.2¢ | 2¢ | +$0 | $27 | 30/11/2026 |
| Will San Jose Earthquakes win the 2026 MLS Cup? | No | 98.7¢ | 97¢ | +$2 | $1,158 | 19/12/2026 |
| Will Columbus Crew win the 2026 MLS Cup? | No | 97.5¢ | 97¢ | +$0 | $1,053 | 19/12/2026 |
| Will Columbus Crew win the 2026 MLS Cup? | Yes | 2.9¢ | 3¢ | $-4 | $61 | 19/12/2026 |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | Yes | 8.7¢ | 8¢ | +$2 | $169 | 31/12/2026 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | No | 91.8¢ | 91¢ | +$1 | $2,107 | 31/12/2026 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Yes | 8.6¢ | 9¢ | +$1 | $97 | 31/12/2026 |
| Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 1.9¢ | 1¢ | $-2 | $77 | 07/11/2028 |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 88.5¢ | 88¢ | +$4 | $1,051 | 07/11/2028 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 72.6¢ | 73¢ | +$3 | $1,160 | 07/11/2028 |
| Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 1.3¢ | 1¢ | +$2 | $78 | 07/11/2028 |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 91.2¢ | 92¢ | +$1 | $2,108 | 07/11/2028 |
| Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | No | 98.9¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | $1,697 | 07/11/2028 |
| Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 1.1¢ | 1¢ | +$0 | $46 | 07/11/2028 |
| Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 1.1¢ | 1¢ | +$0 | $41 | 07/11/2028 |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 36.7¢ | 39¢ | +$0 | $1,156 | 07/11/2028 |