Win rate
81.4%
35 W / 8 L
Total PnL
$288
realized $-1,320 · unrealized $1,608
Portfolio
$1,608
volume $10,132
Predictions
92
5.3/day · avg $110
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 31/03/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 81% +$214
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | No | 34¢ | 16¢ | $-46 | loss |
| Iran Nuke before 2027? | No | 91¢ | 90¢ | $-1 | loss |
| US x Iran ceasefire before Oil hits $120? | Yes | 87¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30? | Yes | 60¢ | 19¢ | $-29 | loss |
| US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? | Yes | 73¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | No | 72¢ | 74¢ | +$5 | win |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | Yes | 85¢ | 100¢ | +$41 | win |
| Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 8, 2026? | Yes | 64¢ | 100¢ | +$37 | win |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | No | 49¢ | 0¢ | +$36 | win |
| Houthi military action against Israel by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 83¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | win |
Other 75% +$15
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Netanyahu out by June 30? | No | 95¢ | 94¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30? | No | 54¢ | 94¢ | +$3 | win |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30? | No | 81¢ | 90¢ | +$5 | win |
Politics 100% +$8
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026? | No | 84¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? | Yes | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
Recent Trades (43)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houthi military action against Israel by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 69.3¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | $45 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 38.9¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | $33 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? | No | 64.3¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $30 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 15.8¢ | 0¢ | $-35 | $75 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026? | No | 84.0¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $25 | 14/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | Yes | 34.5¢ | 90¢ | +$59 | $145 | 07/04/2026 |
| Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? | Yes | 93.0¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $71 | 07/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 92.0¢ | 0¢ | $-8 | $105 | 07/04/2026 |
| Houthi strike on Israel by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 66.2¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | $42 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 85.8¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | $218 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 28, 2026? | No | 87.6¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $22 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 24, 2026? | Yes | 97.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $24 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 30, 2026? | Yes | 99.1¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $40 | 31/03/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | Yes | 51.3¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | $55 | 01/01/1970 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | No | 82.0¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $41 | 01/01/1970 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026? | No | 41.5¢ | 97¢ | +$40 | $31 | 18/04/2026 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30? | No | 81.1¢ | 90¢ | +$5 | $45 | 30/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? | Yes | 75.0¢ | 94¢ | +$8 | $34 | 30/04/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | Yes | 84.8¢ | 100¢ | +$41 | $694 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 8, 2026? | Yes | 64.3¢ | 100¢ | +$37 | $67 | 30/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | No | 48.7¢ | 0¢ | +$36 | $192 | 30/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 63.4¢ | 100¢ | +$35 | $60 | 30/04/2026 |
| Houthi military action against Israel by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 83.3¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | $80 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will UAE strike Iran by April 30? | No | 79.0¢ | 93¢ | +$4 | $33 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30? | No | 53.9¢ | 94¢ | +$3 | $23 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 10, 2026? | No | 91.3¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $22 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 9, 2026? | Yes | 97.4¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $32 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 8, 2026? | Yes | 97.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $23 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 5, 2026? | Yes | 98.6¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $28 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 4, 2026? | Yes | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $22 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 1, 2026? | Yes | 99.3¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $28 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 9, 2026? | Yes | 99.6¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $46 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 2, 2026? | Yes | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $50 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 4, 2026? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $44 | 30/04/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | No | 16.6¢ | 0¢ | $-18 | $32 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026? | No | 55.3¢ | 0¢ | $-47 | $68 | 30/04/2026 |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | No | 72.3¢ | 74¢ | +$5 | $280 | 31/05/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? | Yes | 73.2¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $106 | 31/05/2026 |
| Netanyahu out by June 30? | No | 94.5¢ | 94¢ | $-0 | $1,016 | 30/06/2026 |
| Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30? | Yes | 59.8¢ | 19¢ | $-29 | $46 | 30/06/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire before Oil hits $120? | Yes | 87.0¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $38 | 30/06/2026 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | No | 33.8¢ | 16¢ | $-46 | $85 | 31/12/2026 |
| Iran Nuke before 2027? | No | 91.0¢ | 90¢ | $-1 | $116 | 31/12/2026 |