ford78

Geopolitics 61% +$5,831 $139,550 vol · 44 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	No	34¢	0¢	$-2,640	loss
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	Yes	67¢	100¢	+$102	win
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	No	28¢	0¢	$-727	loss
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	61¢	65¢	+$548	win
Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	64¢	68¢	$-194	loss
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	No	66¢	0¢	$-76	loss
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	78¢	90¢	+$842	win
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?	Yes	73¢	74¢	+$49	win
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?	No	82¢	100¢	+$2,617	win
Will another country strike Iran by March 31?	No	61¢	100¢	+$544	win

Sports 61% +$1,998 $31,466 vol · 38 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	6¢	3¢	+$34	win
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	92¢	70¢	$-26	loss
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?	No	52¢	24¢	$-365	loss
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	16¢	16¢	+$12	win
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 100M and 125M views in its first 7 days?	Yes	42¢	0¢	$-2,711	loss
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 50M and 75M views in its first 7 days?	No	98¢	100¢	$-39	loss
Will the Bad Bunny Apple Music Super Bowl Halftime Show video get between 72 and 74 million views on day 3?	Yes	49¢	0¢	$-72	loss
Will the Bad Bunny Apple Music Super Bowl Halftime Show video get 80 million or more views on day 3?	No	95¢	100¢	+$69	win
Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?	Yes	71¢	100¢	+$391	win
Will Karol G perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?	No	71¢	0¢	$-394	loss

Elections 56% +$647 $34,341 vol · 55 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Yes	37¢	20¢	$-4	loss
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	82¢	92¢	+$54	win
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	65¢	66¢	+$14	win
Venezuela election scheduled by January 31, 2026?	No	86¢	100¢	+$80	win
Will turnout in the second round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election be between 82% and 84%?	Yes	30¢	0¢	$-88	loss
Will António José Seguro win the second round by 20–30%?	No	68¢	100¢	+$47	win
Will FA win the second most seats in the 2026 Costa Rican Legislative Assembly election?	Yes	11¢	0¢	$-164	loss
Will FA win the most seats in the 2026 Costa Rican Legislative Assembly election?	Yes	2¢	0¢	$-43	loss
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of Costa Rica's presidential election?	Yes	75¢	100¢	+$204	win
Will PPSO win the most seats in the 2026 Costa Rican Legislative Assembly election?	No	14¢	0¢	$-32	loss

Culture 67% +$212 $3,029 vol · 3 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Bad Bunny have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?	No	62¢	100¢	+$220	win
Will Debí Tirar Más Fotos (Bad Bunny) win Album of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?	No	59¢	0¢	$-32	loss
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025?	Yes	98¢	100¢	+$24	win

Crypto 100% +$99 $351 vol · 1 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 680k+ BTC by January 31?	Yes	78¢	100¢	+$99	win

Tech 30% $-208 $2,723 vol · 10 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Google have the second-best AI model at the end of February 2026?	Yes	23¢	0¢	$-114	loss
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?	Yes	30¢	0¢	$-135	loss
Will Google Gemini score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	No	82¢	80¢	$-4	loss
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?	No	80¢	100¢	$-101	loss
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?	Yes	19¢	0¢	$-141	loss
Will Jensen Huang say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 20+ times during NVIDIA keynote?	Yes	20¢	0¢	$-10	loss
Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?	No	68¢	100¢	+$41	win
Will Sora by OpenAI be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 31?	No	84¢	100¢	+$19	win

Politics 62% $-663 $8,749 vol · 16 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?	No	30¢	100¢	+$125	win
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	81¢	92¢	+$90	win
Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize?	Yes	82¢	100¢	+$6	win
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?	Yes	8¢	0¢	$-112	loss
Will Trump meet with Nicolás Maduro in 2026?	Yes	88¢	12¢	$-857	loss
Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by March 31?	No	90¢	100¢	+$223	win
Will Trump sue Trevor Noah by March 31?	No	78¢	100¢	+$16	win
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 15?	Yes	71¢	100¢	+$315	win
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 6?	Yes	84¢	100¢	+$39	win
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 6?	No	16¢	0¢	$-82	loss

Other 36% $-14,024 $147,362 vol · 172 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	82¢	90¢	+$90	win
Maduro out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	97¢	100¢	+$3	win
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	72¢	80¢	$-7	loss
Epstein client list released by June 30?	No	82¢	94¢	+$34	win
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?	No	89¢	100¢	+$117	win
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	No	47¢	60¢	+$136	win
Will Slavia Pragu win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	2¢	0¢	$-34	loss
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	96¢	88¢	+$0	—
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1?	Yes	55¢	100¢	$-39	loss
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1?	Yes	14¢	0¢	$-543	loss