Win rate
49.0%
47 W / 49 L
Total PnL
$-5,495
realized $-7,111 · unrealized $1,616
Portfolio
$1,616
volume $242,462
Predictions
97
0.7/day · avg $2,500
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 05/11/2024 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | no |
Category breakdown
Other 68% +$3,765
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)? | Yes | 59¢ | 88¢ | +$351 | win |
| Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting? | Yes | 58¢ | 9¢ | $-33 | loss |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | Yes | 57¢ | 60¢ | $-9 | loss |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Yes | 54¢ | 53¢ | $-7 | loss |
| Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Apr)? | Yes | 36¢ | 99¢ | +$740 | win |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Yes | 74¢ | 99¢ | +$495 | win |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Carabao Cup? | Yes | 58¢ | 0¢ | $-110 | loss |
| Will Robert Golob be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? | Yes | 56¢ | 1¢ | $-61 | loss |
| Fed rate cut by March 2026 meeting? | No | 66¢ | 100¢ | +$79 | win |
| Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)? | Yes | 57¢ | 100¢ | +$1,198 | win |
Economy 55% +$3,254
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | Yes | 56¢ | 92¢ | +$1,139 | win |
| Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting? | Yes | 67¢ | 6¢ | $-52 | loss |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting? | Yes | 84¢ | 100¢ | +$313 | win |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | Yes | 77¢ | 100¢ | +$22 | win |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? | Yes | 70¢ | 100¢ | +$1,729 | win |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? | Yes | 51¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Yes | 91¢ | 100¢ | $-62 | loss |
| No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | $-50 | loss |
| Will the August 2025 unemployment rate be 4.3%? | Yes | 57¢ | 100¢ | +$77 | win |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2024 meeting? | Yes | 62¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
Tech 75% +$406
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? | Yes | 85¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
| Will Microsoft be the second most valuable company on October 31? | Yes | 61¢ | 0¢ | $-11 | loss |
| Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings? | Yes | 73¢ | 0¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Microsoft be the second largest company in the world by market cap on September 30? | Yes | 69¢ | 100¢ | +$403 | win |
Sports 33% +$376
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card) | Pimblett | 64¢ | 0¢ | $-120 | loss |
| Will Luke Littler win the PDC World Darts Championship? | Yes | 63¢ | 100¢ | +$136 | win |
| Will annual inflation increase by 3.0% in November? | Yes | 52¢ | 0¢ | $-150 | loss |
| Will Chelsea win the FIFA Club World Cup? | No | 75¢ | 0¢ | $-10 | loss |
| Will PSG win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Yes | 76¢ | 0¢ | $-650 | loss |
| Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson? | Yes | 64¢ | 100¢ | +$1,169 | win |
Culture 75% +$101
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Luther (Kendrick Lamar and SZA) win Record of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? | Yes | 60¢ | 100¢ | +$88 | win |
| Will Debí Tirar Más Fotos (Bad Bunny) win Album of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? | Yes | 65¢ | 100¢ | +$68 | win |
| Will Olivia Dean win Best New Artist at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? | Yes | 80¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | win |
| Will Golden (Ejae and Mark Sonnenblick) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? | Yes | 82¢ | 0¢ | $-72 | loss |
Geopolitics 0% $-234
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the February Meeting? | Yes | 71¢ | 0¢ | $-234 | loss |
Finance 54% $-476
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on December 11? | Up | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$58 | win |
| Will Exxon Mobil (XOM) beat quarterly earnings? | Yes | 85¢ | 100¢ | $-12 | loss |
| Will Citigroup (C) beat quarterly earnings? | Yes | 82¢ | 0¢ | $-153 | loss |
| Will Fastenal (FAST) beat quarterly earnings? | Yes | 84¢ | 0¢ | $-201 | loss |
| Will PepsiCo (PEP) beat quarterly earnings? | Yes | 81¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
| Will Constellation Brands (STZ) beat quarterly earnings? | Yes | 71¢ | 100¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will Constellation Brands (STZ) beat quarterly earnings? | No | 81¢ | 0¢ | $-112 | loss |
| Will Costco Wholesale (COST) beat its quarterly EPS estimate? | Yes | 64¢ | 0¢ | $-213 | loss |
| Will Cintas (CTAS) beat its quarterly EPS estimate? | Yes | 76¢ | 0¢ | +$30 | win |
| Will NIKE (NKE) beat quarterly earnings? | Yes | 82¢ | 100¢ | +$44 | win |
Politics 0% $-1,421
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | Yes | 69¢ | 58¢ | $-31 | loss |
| Trump imposes tariff on semiconductors by December 31? | Yes | 69¢ | 0¢ | $-71 | loss |
| Will Trump nominate Howard Lutnick for Treasury Secretary? | Yes | 43¢ | 0¢ | $-999 | loss |
| Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? | No | 54¢ | 0¢ | $-250 | loss |
Elections 60% $-4,593
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 72¢ | 100¢ | +$282 | win |
| Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election? | Yes | 60¢ | 100¢ | +$203 | win |
| Will Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami win the most seats in the Bangladesh parliamentary election? | Yes | 21¢ | 0¢ | $-38 | loss |
| Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election? | Yes | 78¢ | 0¢ | $-229 | loss |
| Will António José Seguro win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | Yes | 60¢ | 100¢ | +$337 | win |
| Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? | Yes | 43¢ | 0¢ | $-23 | loss |
| Will Marcel Ciolacu win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? | Yes | 65¢ | 0¢ | $-10,013 | loss |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 60¢ | 100¢ | +$3,857 | win |
Crypto 18% $-6,750
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 57¢ | 46¢ | $-114 | loss |
| Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? | $60k | 32¢ | 28¢ | $-433 | loss |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on March 28? | Down | 36¢ | 0¢ | $-102 | loss |
| Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase December 30-January 5? | Yes | 65¢ | 100¢ | $-69 | loss |
| Over $1.8B committed to the MegaETH public sale? | Yes | 75¢ | 0¢ | $-200 | loss |
| Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? | Yes | 53¢ | 0¢ | $-123 | loss |
| Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? | Yes | 37¢ | 0¢ | $-1,025 | loss |
| MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase December 23-29? | Yes | 65¢ | 100¢ | +$107 | win |
| Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase December 23-29? | Yes | 77¢ | 100¢ | +$67 | win |
| MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase December 16-22? | Yes | 63¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Yes | 73.8¢ | 99¢ | +$495 | $1,426 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 72.2¢ | 100¢ | +$282 | $740 | 12/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on March 28? | Down | 36.0¢ | 0¢ | $-102 | $102 | 28/03/2026 |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Carabao Cup? | Yes | 58.0¢ | 0¢ | $-110 | $110 | 26/03/2026 |
| Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election? | Yes | 60.2¢ | 100¢ | +$203 | $318 | 22/03/2026 |
| Will Robert Golob be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? | Yes | 55.6¢ | 1¢ | $-61 | $520 | 22/03/2026 |
| Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)? | Yes | 56.7¢ | 100¢ | +$1,198 | $2,011 | 18/03/2026 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting? | Yes | 84.0¢ | 100¢ | +$313 | $2,327 | 18/03/2026 |
| Fed rate cut by March 2026 meeting? | No | 66.1¢ | 100¢ | +$79 | $200 | 18/03/2026 |
| Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after March 2026 meeting? | Yes | 82.8¢ | 100¢ | +$104 | $505 | 17/03/2026 |
| Government shutdown on Saturday? | Yes | 82.1¢ | 0¢ | $-4,289 | $5,828 | 14/02/2026 |
| Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the February Meeting? | Yes | 71.1¢ | 0¢ | $-234 | $964 | 13/02/2026 |
| Will Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami win the most seats in the Bangladesh parliamentary election? | Yes | 21.0¢ | 0¢ | $-38 | $101 | 12/02/2026 |
| Will Bhumjaithai Party (BJT) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election? | Yes | 42.0¢ | 100¢ | +$893 | $649 | 08/02/2026 |
| Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election? | Yes | 78.5¢ | 0¢ | $-229 | $878 | 08/02/2026 |
| Will the Reserve Bank of Australia increase the target for the cash rate after the February Meeting? | Yes | 55.5¢ | 100¢ | +$116 | $145 | 03/02/2026 |
| Will Luther (Kendrick Lamar and SZA) win Record of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? | Yes | 60.1¢ | 100¢ | +$88 | $132 | 01/02/2026 |
| Will Debí Tirar Más Fotos (Bad Bunny) win Album of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? | Yes | 65.5¢ | 100¢ | +$68 | $130 | 01/02/2026 |
| Will Olivia Dean win Best New Artist at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? | Yes | 80.2¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | $70 | 01/02/2026 |
| Will Golden (Ejae and Mark Sonnenblick) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? | Yes | 82.1¢ | 0¢ | $-72 | $72 | 01/02/2026 |
| Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Oct–Dec–Jan)? | Yes | 91.9¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $85 | 31/01/2026 |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | Yes | 77.2¢ | 100¢ | +$22 | $720 | 28/01/2026 |
| Will António José Seguro win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | Yes | 59.8¢ | 100¢ | +$337 | $507 | 25/01/2026 |
| UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card) | Pimblett | 63.9¢ | 0¢ | $-120 | $120 | 25/01/2026 |
| Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase December 30-January 5? | Yes | 64.9¢ | 100¢ | $-69 | $169 | 06/01/2026 |
| Will Luke Littler win the PDC World Darts Championship? | Yes | 63.3¢ | 100¢ | +$136 | $235 | 03/01/2026 |
| Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? | No | 67.1¢ | 100¢ | +$74 | $151 | 01/01/2026 |
| Over $1.8B committed to the MegaETH public sale? | Yes | 75.0¢ | 0¢ | $-200 | $200 | 01/01/2026 |
| Will Kabuto 1st Edition card hit $100 by December 31? | No | 47.0¢ | 0¢ | $-805 | $805 | 01/01/2026 |
| Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? | Yes | 84.9¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $100 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? | Yes | 63.7¢ | 0¢ | $-42 | $307 | 31/12/2025 |
| Trump imposes tariff on semiconductors by December 31? | Yes | 69.3¢ | 0¢ | $-71 | $104 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? | Yes | 52.6¢ | 0¢ | $-123 | $202 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? | Yes | 37.1¢ | 0¢ | $-1,025 | $1,185 | 31/12/2025 |
| MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase December 23-29? | Yes | 65.1¢ | 100¢ | +$107 | $199 | 30/12/2025 |
| Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase December 23-29? | Yes | 76.7¢ | 100¢ | +$67 | $222 | 30/12/2025 |
| Will Last Christmas - Wham! be the #1 song on Spotify this week? | Yes | 66.1¢ | 100¢ | +$46 | $90 | 26/12/2025 |
| MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase December 16-22? | Yes | 63.2¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | $60 | 23/12/2025 |
| Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase December 16-22? | Yes | 87.4¢ | 0¢ | $-710 | $710 | 23/12/2025 |
| Will annual inflation increase by 3.0% in November? | Yes | 51.6¢ | 0¢ | $-150 | $150 | 18/12/2025 |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-12-13? | Yes | 88.1¢ | 100¢ | +$50 | $374 | 13/12/2025 |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on December 11? | Up | 96.3¢ | 100¢ | +$58 | $1,555 | 11/12/2025 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? | Yes | 70.2¢ | 100¢ | +$1,729 | $4,189 | 10/12/2025 |
| Will the Fed cut-cut-cut in 2025? | Yes | 66.2¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $237 | 10/12/2025 |
| Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? | Yes | 55.9¢ | 100¢ | +$139 | $178 | 07/12/2025 |
| Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? | Yes | 42.6¢ | 0¢ | $-23 | $110 | 07/12/2025 |
| Will Ethereum dip to $3800 in October? | Yes | 46.0¢ | 100¢ | $-33 | $100 | 01/11/2025 |
| Will Microsoft be the second most valuable company on October 31? | Yes | 61.4¢ | 0¢ | $-11 | $100 | 31/10/2025 |
| Will Exxon Mobil (XOM) beat quarterly earnings? | Yes | 85.2¢ | 100¢ | $-12 | $308 | 31/10/2025 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? | Yes | 51.0¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | $57 | 29/10/2025 |