cambridgeisaac

Geopolitics 67% +$42,066 $517,476 vol · 336 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Iran leadership change by March 13?	No	89¢	100¢	+$12	win
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	Yes	63¢	0¢	$-211	loss
Iran leadership change or US x Iran ceasefire first?	Ceasefire	74¢	100¢	+$800	win
Will the US strike Iran next?	No	98¢	100¢	+$311	win
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	No	42¢	0¢	$-192	loss
Will the US strike Iran next?	No	96¢	100¢	+$174	win
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	No	34¢	0¢	$-3,510	loss
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	37¢	18¢	+$0	—
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	No	21¢	0¢	+$-0	loss
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	Yes	96¢	100¢	$-19	loss

Politics 65% +$19,188 $320,660 vol · 205 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	3¢	6¢	+$10	win
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	53¢	39¢	$-288	loss
Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize?	Yes	78¢	100¢	+$1,615	win
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?	No	73¢	100¢	+$1,100	win
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?	Yes	13¢	0¢	$-127	loss
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?	No	62¢	100¢	+$96	win
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	86¢	92¢	+$135	win
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	Yes	39¢	16¢	$-1	loss
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?	No	84¢	92¢	$-8	loss
Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize?	No	41¢	0¢	$-58	loss

Sports 59% +$3,847 $29,559 vol · 22 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will the United States win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?	Yes	35¢	0¢	$-79	loss
Will Italy win the second most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?	Yes	51¢	0¢	$-59	loss
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?	Yes	94¢	100¢	+$44	win
Will Norway win the second most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?	Yes	33¢	0¢	$-33	loss
Will Ricky Martin perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?	Yes	88¢	100¢	+$71	win
Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?	No	64¢	0¢	$-278	loss
Will Coinbase run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?	Yes	66¢	100¢	+$231	win
Will "Tití Me Preguntó" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show?	Yes	71¢	100¢	+$771	win
Transgender women be banned from the Olympics before Winter Games?	No	88¢	100¢	+$23	win
Transgender women be banned from the Olympics before Winter Games?	Yes	28¢	0¢	$-57	loss

Economy 93% +$2,491 $48,717 vol · 15 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Bank of England decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2026 meeting?	Yes	84¢	0¢	+$33	win
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?	Yes	91¢	100¢	+$41	win
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	Yes	94¢	100¢	+$444	win
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?	No	88¢	100¢	+$5	win
Bank of England decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?	Yes	85¢	100¢	+$14	win
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?	Yes	37¢	0¢	+$32	win
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?	No	9¢	0¢	$-3	loss
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?	Yes	94¢	100¢	+$589	win
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?	Yes	89¢	100¢	+$741	win
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?	No	89¢	100¢	+$0	win

Elections 66% +$1,190 $59,297 vol · 69 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	96¢	98¢	+$2	win
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	69¢	64¢	$-195	loss
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?	Yes	97¢	100¢	+$67	win
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	84¢	92¢	+$315	win
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	66¢	66¢	$-4	loss
Will Eric Ciotti win the 2026 Nice mayoral election?	Yes	96¢	100¢	+$27	win
Will Scottish National Party win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?	Yes	93¢	98¢	$-1	loss
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	82¢	81¢	$-20	loss
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	73¢	82¢	+$132	win
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	65¢	78¢	+$43	win

Culture 79% +$968 $16,885 vol · 14 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	80¢	100¢	+$56	win
Will Frankenstein win Best Costume Design at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	91¢	100¢	+$50	win
Will Frankenstein win Best Makeup and Hairstyling at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	91¢	100¢	+$39	win
Will Sinners win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	95¢	100¢	+$27	win
Will Frankenstein win Best Production Design at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	92¢	100¢	+$9	win
Will Sean Penn win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	No	84¢	0¢	$-100	loss
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	71¢	0¢	$-190	loss
Will SZA release a new song in 2025?	Yes	91¢	100¢	+$689	win
Will Olivia Rodrigo release an album in 2025?	No	82¢	100¢	+$331	win
Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2025?	Yes	93¢	100¢	+$76	win

Finance 83% $-229 $2,650 vol · 12 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?	Yes	69¢	26¢	$-63	loss
Will Netflix close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?	Yes	18¢	0¢	+$15	win
Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 28, 2026?	No	44¢	100¢	+$139	win
Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 28, 2026?	Yes	80¢	0¢	$-497	loss
S&P 500 all time high by December 31?	No	32¢	0¢	+$32	win
Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by December 31?	No	86¢	100¢	+$4	win
Bondi, Bongino or Patel out by August 31?	No	94¢	100¢	+$3	win
Pam Bondi out as Attorney General in July?	No	97¢	100¢	+$20	win
Bondi, Bongino or Patel out by July 31?	No	95¢	100¢	+$5	win
Bondi, Bongino or Patel out by July 18th?	No	88¢	100¢	+$0	win

Crypto 42% $-282 $4,177 vol · 12 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will X launch a USD stablecoin in 2026?	Yes	19¢	23¢	+$13	win
Blast Open Rotterdam 2026: Will a player break something during a game?	Yes	54¢	0¢	$-301	loss
US Treasury transactions on blockchain in 2025?	No	97¢	100¢	+$9	win
US national Ethereum reserve in 2025?	No	85¢	100¢	+$0	win
US national XRP reserve in 2025?	No	85¢	100¢	$-0	loss
US national Dogecoin reserve in 2025?	No	91¢	100¢	$-0	loss
US national Solana reserve in 2025?	No	82¢	100¢	$-1	loss
US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025?	No	72¢	100¢	$-1	loss
Will Gavin Newsom launch a token in September?	Yes	18¢	0¢	$-101	loss
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July?	No	87¢	100¢	+$195	win

Tech 63% $-571 $40,266 vol · 66 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30?	Yes	76¢	100¢	+$271	win
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service by June 30, 2026?	Yes	94¢	100¢	+$1	win
OpenAI $1T+ valuation in 2025?	Yes	10¢	0¢	$-15	loss
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?	No	85¢	100¢	+$3	win
Will Google have the third-best AI model at the end of March 2026?	Yes	90¢	100¢	+$151	win
GPT-5.3 released by March 31, 2026?	Yes	91¢	100¢	+$75	win
Will Google have the #3 AI model at the end of March 2026?	Yes	60¢	100¢	+$30	win
Will Apple announce the iPhone 17e by February 28?	No	83¢	100¢	+$19	win
Will Google have the second-best AI model at the end of February 2026?	Yes	9¢	0¢	+$5	win
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?	Yes	8¢	0¢	$-1,134	loss

Other 61% $-5,417 $576,653 vol · 369 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X?	Yes	47¢	32¢	$-38	loss
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.3m barrels per day in 2026?	No	75¢	74¢	$-1	loss
Will the Chicago Bears leave Illinois by Dec. 31?	No	83¢	63¢	$-7	loss
Will the US strike Syria next?	Yes	19¢	0¢	$-416	loss
Will the US strike Somalia next?	Yes	98¢	100¢	+$254	win
Will the US strike Somalia next?	Yes	78¢	100¢	+$193	win
Will the US strike Somalia next?	Yes	84¢	100¢	+$64	win
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by March 31, 2026?	No	87¢	100¢	+$49	win
Will anyone be charged over Epstein disclosures?	No	66¢	78¢	+$46	win
Will Elon Musk get full custody of the St. Clair child?	No	86¢	92¢	+$33	win