0xb4f6...eada

Geopolitics 66% +$544 $4,484 vol · 68 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	64¢	78¢	+$3	win
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	No	71¢	70¢	+$1	win
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026?	No	94¢	94¢	$-0	loss
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?	Yes	95¢	98¢	$-1	loss
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?	Yes	94¢	100¢	+$3	win
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	86¢	95¢	+$0	—
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	94¢	94¢	$-4	loss
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	83¢	92¢	+$6	win
Will Turkey strike Iran by April 30?	No	98¢	98¢	$-1	loss
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	Yes	41¢	55¢	$-2	loss

Other 55% +$82 $1,064 vol · 22 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	44¢	36¢	$-6	loss
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	92¢	92¢	$-0	loss
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by December 31?	Yes	94¢	95¢	+$1	win
Adam Back confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31?	No	95¢	96¢	+$0	win
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	99¢	99¢	$-0	loss
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	95¢	94¢	$-0	loss
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30?	No	97¢	98¢	+$0	win
Tony Gonzales out as US Rep by May 31?	Yes	99¢	100¢	+$0	win
Eric Swalwell out as US Rep by May 31?	Yes	99¢	100¢	+$0	win
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	65¢	78¢	+$7	win

Politics 76% +$82 $1,277 vol · 22 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 13, 2026?	No	97¢	100¢	+$2	win
Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?	No	72¢	98¢	+$20	win
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	Yes	35¢	55¢	+$11	win
Will Trump talk to Mark Rutte in April?	Yes	100¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?	No	93¢	92¢	+$0	—
Trump out as President by April 30?	No	99¢	99¢	$-0	loss
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026?	No	73¢	94¢	$-8	loss
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?	No	71¢	62¢	+$3	win
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026?	No	82¢	100¢	$-5	loss
Will Trump say "Ceasefire" during dinner with Dutch royals?	No	93¢	100¢	+$3	win

Elections 100% +$9 $36 vol · 1 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?	No	75¢	100¢	+$9	win

Weather 84% $-1,098 $22,029 vol · 501 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on April 18?	No	95¢	94¢	$-0	loss
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 18?	No	99¢	99¢	+$0	win
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on April 18?	No	82¢	86¢	+$1	win
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C or higher on April 18?	No	95¢	91¢	$-1	loss
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on April 18?	No	96¢	98¢	+$1	win
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on April 17?	No	97¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 17?	No	98¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on April 17?	No	100¢	100¢	$-0	loss
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on April 17?	No	82¢	84¢	+$1	win
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on April 17?	No	81¢	100¢	+$6	win