Win rate
67.3%
76 W / 37 L
Total PnL
$-208
realized $-2,545 · unrealized $2,337
Portfolio
$2,337
volume $56,238
Predictions
141
0.7/day · avg $399
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 13/07/2024 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Politics 65% +$393
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | No | 91¢ | 90¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Trump endorse JD Vance for president before 2027? | No | 89¢ | 88¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? | Yes | 43¢ | 42¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? | No | 91¢ | 90¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? | Yes | 92¢ | 92¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? | No | 94¢ | 97¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Trump & Elon reduce the deficit in 2025? | No | 78¢ | 100¢ | +$39 | win |
| US congress stock trading ban in 2025? | No | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$52 | win |
| Will Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration in 2025? | Yes | 25¢ | 0¢ | +$12 | win |
| Will Kamala Harris announce Presidential run by December 31? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
Other 81% +$281
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? | No | 92¢ | 93¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | No | 84¢ | 92¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Tim Walz resign by June 30? | No | 92¢ | 96¢ | +$9 | win |
| Will Tim Walz resign by June 30? | Yes | 16¢ | 4¢ | $-15 | loss |
| Tim Walz charged by March 31, 2026? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Tim Walz charged by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 37¢ | 16¢ | $-14 | loss |
| US strike on Colombia by March 31? | No | 87¢ | 100¢ | +$36 | win |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | No | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$50 | win |
| Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands in 2025? | No | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | win |
| Obama divorce in 2025? | No | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | win |
Geopolitics 55% +$33
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027? | Yes | 32¢ | 14¢ | $-18 | loss |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 84¢ | 84¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | 89¢ | 94¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will the US officially declare war on Iran in 2025? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025? | No | 53¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by July 31? | No | 84¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024? | No | 81¢ | 100¢ | +$92 | win |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon before November? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$29 | win |
| Israel withdraws from Gaza before November? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
| Will Israeli troops enter Beirut by October 31? | Yes | 6¢ | 0¢ | $-40 | loss |
Crypto 100% +$7
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July? | No | 89¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100k in April? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
Finance 100% +$2
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pam Bondi out as Attorney General in July? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
Tech 0% $-256
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Google Maps renames it "Gulf of America" before March? | No | 41¢ | 0¢ | $-256 | loss |
Elections 61% $-580
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 74¢ | 81¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 78¢ | 84¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will Laura Virginia Fernández Delgado win the 2026 Costa Rican presidential election? | Yes | 85¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian election? | Yes | 74¢ | 100¢ | +$48 | win |
| Which party wins 2024 US Presidential Election? | Democratic | 47¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | win |
| JD Vance positive favorability before the election? | No | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$25 | win |
| Will a Democrat win Minnesota in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | win |
| Trump conviction overturned before election? | No | 87¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | win |
| Trump wins every swing state? | No | 80¢ | 0¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will either Kamala or Trump win every swing state? | No | 66¢ | 0¢ | +$3 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Walz charged by March 31, 2026? | No | 95.1¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $60 | 31/03/2026 |
| Tim Walz charged by December 31, 2026? | No | 76.9¢ | 84¢ | +$9 | $235 | 31/03/2026 |
| Tim Walz charged by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 36.8¢ | 16¢ | $-14 | $25 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump & Elon reduce the deficit in 2025? | No | 78.5¢ | 100¢ | +$39 | $143 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will Laura Virginia Fernández Delgado win the 2026 Costa Rican presidential election? | Yes | 85.0¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $40 | 01/02/2026 |
| US strike on Colombia by March 31? | No | 87.0¢ | 100¢ | +$36 | $243 | 31/01/2026 |
| US congress stock trading ban in 2025? | No | 91.2¢ | 100¢ | +$52 | $534 | 31/12/2025 |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | No | 89.6¢ | 100¢ | +$50 | $434 | 31/12/2025 |
| Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands in 2025? | No | 90.0¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | $140 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration in 2025? | Yes | 25.1¢ | 0¢ | +$12 | $35 | 31/12/2025 |
| Obama divorce in 2025? | No | 90.0¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $99 | 31/12/2025 |
| Modi out in 2025? | No | 95.0¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $104 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Kamala Harris announce Presidential run by December 31? | No | 95.0¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $100 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Trump jail Elon Musk? | No | 95.6¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $206 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will the US officially declare war on Iran in 2025? | No | 95.3¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $54 | 31/12/2025 |
| Trump agrees to send U.S. peacekeeping force to Ukraine? | No | 91.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $240 | 31/12/2025 |
| Epstein or Maxwell confirmed Mossad operatives in 2025? | No | 95.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $140 | 31/12/2025 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025? | No | 53.0¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | $25 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? | No | 94.0¢ | 100¢ | $-4 | $180 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Elon Musk create a new political party in 2025? | No | 94.0¢ | 0¢ | $-29 | $80 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2025? | Yes | 13.8¢ | 0¢ | $-38 | $38 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Trump's approval rating hit 40% in 2025? | Yes | 41.8¢ | 0¢ | $-240 | $673 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Trump end DOGE in 2025? | No | 85.9¢ | 0¢ | $-140 | $140 | 31/12/2025 |
| Gaza mass population relocation in 2025? | Yes | 19.5¢ | 0¢ | $-7 | $37 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Trump make no endorsement for NYC Mayor? | Yes | 95.3¢ | 0¢ | $-210 | $210 | 03/11/2025 |
| Zohran Mamdani arrested before September? | No | 96.9¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $140 | 31/08/2025 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by July 31? | No | 84.0¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $25 | 31/07/2025 |
| Pam Bondi out as Attorney General in July? | No | 96.8¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $100 | 31/07/2025 |
| Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% before August? | Yes | 2.1¢ | 0¢ | $-29 | $29 | 31/07/2025 |
| Will Trump's approval rating hit 43% before August? | Yes | 32.5¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | $30 | 31/07/2025 |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president before July? | No | 83.6¢ | 100¢ | +$85 | $551 | 30/06/2025 |
| Will anyone be charged as a result of Epstein file release? | No | 96.2¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $279 | 30/06/2025 |
| Files proving Epstein or Maxwell were Mossad released before July? | No | 95.0¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $150 | 30/06/2025 |
| Will Nancy Pelosi retire before July? | No | 96.8¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $428 | 30/06/2025 |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July? | No | 89.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $184 | 30/06/2025 |
| Trump and Elon publicly reconcile before July? | Yes | 48.0¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | $25 | 30/06/2025 |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City? | Yes | 13.2¢ | 100¢ | +$926 | $176 | 24/06/2025 |
| Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be greater than 9% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary? | Yes | 10.0¢ | 100¢ | +$291 | $40 | 24/06/2025 |
| Will Andrew Cuomo’s RCV margin of victory be less than 5%? | Yes | 73.6¢ | 100¢ | +$59 | $188 | 24/06/2025 |
| Will Andrew Cuomo’s RCV margin of victory be between 20% and 25%? | No | 85.4¢ | 100¢ | +$29 | $216 | 24/06/2025 |
| Will Andrew Cuomo’s RCV margin of victory be greater than 30%? | No | 90.8¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | $190 | 24/06/2025 |
| Will Trump's approval rating be less than 44.5% on June 20? | Yes | 66.1¢ | 0¢ | $-100 | $100 | 20/06/2025 |
| Mike Waltz out of Trump administration before May? | No | 87.0¢ | 100¢ | +$24 | $180 | 30/04/2025 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100k in April? | No | 94.0¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $80 | 30/04/2025 |
| Will Trump enact India travel ban in first 100 days? | No | 94.0¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | $479 | 29/04/2025 |
| US congress stock trading ban in Trump's first 100 days? | No | 93.0¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | $308 | 29/04/2025 |
| Trump takes Panama Canal in first 100 days? | No | 94.0¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | $534 | 29/04/2025 |
| Trump declassifies JFK files in first 100 days? | No | 61.5¢ | 0¢ | +$14 | $400 | 29/04/2025 |
| Will Trump eliminate H-1B visa in first 100 days? | No | 95.5¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $316 | 29/04/2025 |
| Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? | No | 75.0¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $30 | 29/04/2025 |