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Geopolitics 69% +$1,487 $16,655 vol · 63 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?	No	85¢	86¢	+$1	win
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	No	73¢	70¢	$-15	loss
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	65¢	70¢	+$17	win
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	47¢	29¢	$-44	loss
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	No	91¢	92¢	+$0	win
US x Denmark Military clash before 2027?	No	96¢	94¢	$-1	loss
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	90¢	90¢	$-5	loss
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?	Yes	96¢	99¢	+$11	win
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?	No	7¢	0¢	$-22	loss
Iran leadership change by May 31?	No	81¢	92¢	+$1	win

Other 56% +$236 $10,438 vol · 34 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	78¢	76¢	$-9	loss
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026?	No	79¢	80¢	+$2	win
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	36¢	42¢	+$8	win
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?	No	92¢	92¢	$-1	loss
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	82¢	82¢	$-0	loss
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	96¢	95¢	$-0	loss
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	89¢	92¢	$-0	loss
Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	Yes	86¢	87¢	+$0	win
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	No	50¢	60¢	+$11	win
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 350M by May 1?	No	96¢	99¢	+$1	win

Culture 88% +$47 $1,054 vol · 8 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will "Lee Cronin's The Mummy" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 10m and 15m?	Yes	76¢	84¢	+$24	win
Will "Lee Cronin's The Mummy" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 15m and 20m?	No	86¢	97¢	+$12	win
Will "You, Me & Tuscany" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 8m?	Yes	71¢	100¢	+$26	win
Will "Project Hail Mary" 4th Weekend Box Office be greater than 22m?	Yes	97¢	100¢	+$6	win
Will "You, Me & Tuscany" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 10m and 11m?	No	97¢	100¢	+$5	win
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 70m?	Yes	88¢	100¢	+$4	win
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 80m and 90m?	No	99¢	100¢	+$2	win

Elections 47% +$27 $1,565 vol · 19 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	74¢	74¢	+$1	win
Will United Russia win between 280 and 294 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	No	94¢	98¢	+$1	win
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	22¢	25¢	+$7	win
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	82¢	90¢	$-1	loss
Will Yang Seung-jo win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial election?	Yes	21¢	4¢	$-40	loss
Will Derek Grasty advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	19¢	4¢	$-69	loss
Will Tatiana Auguste win the by-election for the seat of Terrebone in the House of Commons of Canada?	Yes	69¢	100¢	+$66	win
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?	Yes	87¢	100¢	+$11	win
Will Tisza win at least 110 seats?	Yes	74¢	100¢	+$9	win
Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 70% and 75%?	Yes	12¢	94¢	+$295	win

Crypto 0% $-9 $501 vol · 4 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?	No	86¢	82¢	$-3	loss
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April?	No	96¢	85¢	$-1	loss

Finance 50% $-27 $700 vol · 4 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T	No	82¢	84¢	+$2	win
Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	95¢	92¢	$-13	loss
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)?	No	44¢	30¢	$-54	loss
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?	No	54¢	88¢	+$38	win

Tech 20% $-89 $211 vol · 5 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	No	84¢	87¢	+$1	win
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	4¢	4¢	$-2	loss
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	67¢	60¢	$-6	loss
GPT-5.5 released by April 15, 2026?	Yes	41¢	0¢	$-40	loss
Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on April 14?	Yes	15¢	0¢	$-42	loss

Politics 61% $-126 $5,534 vol · 38 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	39¢	39¢	+$1	win
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?	Yes	50¢	50¢	$-11	loss
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	92¢	92¢	+$0	win
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	93¢	94¢	$-1	loss
Will Trump say "Kim Jong Un" in April?	Yes	98¢	100¢	+$2	win
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Joe Biden by April 30, 2026?	Yes	91¢	100¢	+$13	win
Will Trump name "Castro" in April?	Yes	97¢	100¢	+$5	win
Will Leavitt say "Ayatollah" or "Supreme Leader" during the next White House press briefing?	Yes	99¢	100¢	+$3	win
Will Trump talk to Friedrich Merz in April?	No	13¢	0¢	$-136	loss
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	Yes	58¢	50¢	$-13	loss

Weather 50% $-656 $1,481 vol · 38 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on April 6?	Yes	48¢	0¢	$-22	loss
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 66-67°F on April 5?	Yes	8¢	0¢	$-221	loss
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 80°F or higher on April 4?	Yes	98¢	100¢	+$2	win
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C or higher on April 2?	No	97¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on April 2?	No	95¢	100¢	+$2	win
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on April 2?	No	93¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on April 2?	No	97¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on April 2?	No	98¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 2?	Yes	36¢	0¢	$-22	loss
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on April 2?	No	66¢	0¢	$-34	loss