Win rate
45.5%
537 W / 644 L
Total PnL
$2,231
realized $354 · unrealized $1,877
Portfolio
$1,877
volume $2,935,613
Predictions
1,275
7.9/day · avg $2,302
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 23/11/2024 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | no |
Category breakdown
Elections 38% +$10,123
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump act to ban mail-in voting or voting machines in 2025? | No | 26¢ | 100¢ | +$47 | win |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | No | 45¢ | 60¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | Yes | 43¢ | 0¢ | $-70 | loss |
| Will Yoo Jeong-bok win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? | Yes | 4¢ | 3¢ | $-8 | loss |
| Will TISZA win 54%+ of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election? | No | 40¢ | 96¢ | +$371 | win |
| Will voter turnout be 80%+ in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 32¢ | 99¢ | +$44 | win |
| Will Fidesz-KDNP win 40-44% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election? | No | 98¢ | 98¢ | $-50 | loss |
| 2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds under 40% by March 31? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will turnout in the second round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election be between 84% and 86%? | No | 52¢ | 0¢ | $-55 | loss |
| Venezuela election scheduled by January 31, 2026? | Yes | 16¢ | 0¢ | $-91 | loss |
Other 39% +$2,175
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over $10M committed to the Trove public sale? | No | 44¢ | 0¢ | +$96 | win |
| Aztec FDV above $800M one day after launch? | No | 75¢ | 100¢ | $-36 | loss |
| Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch? | Yes | 52¢ | 0¢ | $-3 | loss |
| HumidiFi FDV above $200M one day after launch? | No | 5¢ | 0¢ | $-48 | loss |
| HumidiFi FDV above $400M one day after launch? | Yes | 10¢ | 0¢ | $-26 | loss |
| Over $7M committed to the Infinex public sale? | No | 58¢ | 0¢ | $-204 | loss |
| Sentient FDV above $200M one day after launch? | No | 15¢ | 0¢ | $-100 | loss |
| Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027? | Yes | 60¢ | 91¢ | +$41 | win |
| Cuban regime falls in 2026? | No | 73¢ | 66¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will the US strike Somalia next? | Yes | 13¢ | 0¢ | $-79 | loss |
Sports 80% +$139
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will DeepSeek’s DeepSeek V3.1 Chat win the NOF1.ai competition? | No | 67¢ | 100¢ | $-44 | loss |
| Successful Ukrainian counterattack in Donbass by October 31? | Yes | 7¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will a dildo be thrown onto the court at a WNBA game on Wednesday? | No | 85¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
| $POPCAT listed on Binance or Coinbase in 2024? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
Crypto 47% $-196
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Infrared launch a token by December 31 2025? | No | 5¢ | 0¢ | $-52 | loss |
| Will Silver hit 100 or Bitcoin hit 100k first? | Bitcoin | 24¢ | 0¢ | $-70 | loss |
| Will Opinion launch a token on March 5? | No | 5¢ | 0¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Sentient launch a token in 2025? | No | 9¢ | 100¢ | +$915 | win |
| Over $1.2B committed to the MegaETH public sale? | No | 33¢ | 0¢ | $-456 | loss |
| Over 20,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale? | No | 17¢ | 100¢ | $-57 | loss |
| Over $1.8B committed to the MegaETH public sale? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | $-120 | loss |
| Over 25,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | $-26 | loss |
| Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? | Yes | 8¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | loss |
| Will edgeX launch a token in 2025? | No | 4¢ | 0¢ | $-56 | loss |
Culture 22% $-296
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 'Zootopia 2' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? | Yes | 13¢ | 0¢ | $-77 | loss |
| Will SZA release a new song in 2025? | No | 11¢ | 0¢ | $-22 | loss |
| Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Yes | 5¢ | 0¢ | $-128 | loss |
| Will "Stranger Things: Season 5" be the top US Netflix show this week? (December 30, 2025) | No | 16¢ | 0¢ | $-227 | loss |
| Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90m? | Yes | 65¢ | 100¢ | $-63 | loss |
| Will "Black to the Future" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 3.5m? | No | 27¢ | 0¢ | $-218 | loss |
| Will 'Actually Romantic' be the lowest ranked song from Taylor Swift’s new album on the Billboard Hot 100 for the week of October 18? | Yes | 6¢ | 0¢ | $-37 | loss |
| Will The Pitt win the Emmy for Outstanding Drama Series? | Yes | 36¢ | 100¢ | +$322 | win |
Esports 44% $-324
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Spirit (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs | BetBoom Team | 59¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Spirit (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs | Team Spirit | 58¢ | 0¢ | $-88 | loss |
| Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Spirit - Game 3 Winner | Aurora | 45¢ | 0¢ | +$10 | win |
| Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit (BO5) | Team Yandex | 20¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner | Team Spirit | 27¢ | 0¢ | $-81 | loss |
| Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner | PARIVISION | 63¢ | 0¢ | $-63 | loss |
| Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner | Natus Vincere | 34¢ | 0¢ | $-101 | loss |
| LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) | Hanwha Life Esports | 20¢ | 0¢ | $-60 | loss |
Finance 8% $-534
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day? | No | 34¢ | 6¢ | $-15 | loss |
| Yieldbasis FDV above $500M one day after launch? | No | 5¢ | 0¢ | $-54 | loss |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 2? | Up | 10¢ | 0¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will Paramount Group (PSKY) beat quarterly earnings? | No | 69¢ | 100¢ | $-9 | loss |
| Will Robinhood Markets (HOOD) beat quarterly earnings? | No | 8¢ | 0¢ | $-170 | loss |
| Will Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) beat quarterly earnings? | No | 10¢ | 0¢ | $-102 | loss |
| Will Ford Motor (F) beat quarterly earnings? | No | 37¢ | 0¢ | $-74 | loss |
| Will Bank of America (BAC) beat quarterly earnings? | Yes | 90¢ | 100¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will Jabil (JBL) beat its quarterly EPS estimate? | No | 23¢ | 0¢ | $-11 | loss |
| Will Costco Wholesale (COST) beat its quarterly EPS estimate? | No | 35¢ | 100¢ | $-30 | loss |
Weather 71% $-625
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30? | No | 45¢ | 21¢ | $-160 | loss |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C or higher on March 17? | Yes | 25¢ | 0¢ | $-68 | loss |
| Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 1? | Yes | 78¢ | 100¢ | +$44 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on March 1? | No | 84¢ | 0¢ | $-200 | loss |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on February 28? | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | $-11 | loss |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C or higher on February 28? | Yes | 13¢ | 0¢ | +$51 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on February 27? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on February 27? | Yes | 22¢ | 0¢ | $-36 | loss |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on February 26? | No | 90¢ | 100¢ | $-57 | loss |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C or higher on February 26? | Yes | 7¢ | 0¢ | $-22 | loss |
Economy 18% $-1,106
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $-36 | loss |
| No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | No | 2¢ | 0¢ | $-132 | loss |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? | Yes | 6¢ | 0¢ | $-65 | loss |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? | No | 6¢ | 0¢ | $-174 | loss |
| Will the September 2025 unemployment rate be ≥4.5%? | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Successful Houthi attack on shipping by September 30? | No | 73¢ | 0¢ | $-525 | loss |
| Houthis agree to end attacks on shipping before June? | No | 34¢ | 0¢ | $-221 | loss |
| No change in Fed interest rates after May 2025 meeting? | No | 5¢ | 0¢ | $-50 | loss |
| Houthis agree to end attacks on shipping before May? | No | 62¢ | 100¢ | +$134 | win |
| U.S. recession before May 2025? | Yes | 4¢ | 0¢ | $-18 | loss |
Mentions 42% $-1,351
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | Yes | 34¢ | 15¢ | $-73 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026? | Yes | 17¢ | 100¢ | $-42 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026? | Yes | 70¢ | 0¢ | $-437 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? | No | 64¢ | 100¢ | +$53 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? | Yes | 66¢ | 100¢ | $-46 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026? | Yes | 30¢ | 0¢ | $-88 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026? | Yes | 25¢ | 0¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026? | No | 84¢ | 100¢ | $-18 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? | Yes | 62¢ | 100¢ | +$145 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026? | Yes | 71¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
Politics 42% $-1,459
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $-24 | loss |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? | No | 30¢ | 100¢ | +$282 | win |
| Trump declassifies UFO files before 2027? | No | 9¢ | 0¢ | +$84 | win |
| Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize? | No | 26¢ | 0¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | Yes | 19¢ | 8¢ | +$0 | — |
| Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | Yes | 32¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Seattle Seahawks visit the White House in 2026? | No | 24¢ | 37¢ | $-1 | loss |
| US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China? | Yes | 56¢ | 100¢ | $-12 | loss |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? | No | 26¢ | 26¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April? | Yes | 64¢ | 47¢ | $-19 | loss |
Geopolitics 51% $-2,283
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Israel strike 1 country in 2026? | No | 77¢ | 100¢ | +$116 | win |
| Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? | Yes | 9¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | loss |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? | No | 75¢ | 100¢ | +$45 | win |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | No | 31¢ | 0¢ | +$32 | win |
| Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? | No | 64¢ | 83¢ | +$23 | win |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Yes | 37¢ | 68¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 71¢ | 72¢ | $-8 | loss |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 11, 2026? | Yes | 7¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | loss |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? | No | 20¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | loss |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | No | 20¢ | 0¢ | $-58 | loss |
Tech 40% $-4,305
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Apple's iPhone 17 Pro cost more than $1000 when it launches? | No | 1¢ | 0¢ | $-45 | loss |
| Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 13? | No | 10¢ | 0¢ | $-121 | loss |
| Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 70% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? | Yes | 10¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | loss |
| Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on January 9? | No | 7¢ | 0¢ | $-40 | loss |
| Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 9? | No | 3¢ | 0¢ | $-118 | loss |
| Will Google Gemini be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 9? | No | 75¢ | 0¢ | $-130 | loss |
| Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on January 2? | No | 89¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | win |
| Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 2? | No | 4¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | loss |
| Will CapCut: Photo & Video Editor be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 2? | No | 20¢ | 0¢ | $-111 | loss |
| Over $100M committed to the Avici Raise on MetaDAO? | Yes | 7¢ | 0¢ | $-382 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | Yes | 6.6¢ | 1¢ | $-59 | $92 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | Yes | 33.7¢ | 15¢ | $-73 | $135 | 17/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? | No | 85.0¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | $120 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | No | 75.8¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | $182 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026? | No | 69.7¢ | 98¢ | $-11 | $70 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026? | Yes | 16.6¢ | 100¢ | $-42 | $99 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? | Yes | 11.0¢ | 0¢ | $-44 | $44 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 31.2¢ | 100¢ | $-91 | $200 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will TISZA win 54%+ of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election? | No | 40.5¢ | 96¢ | +$371 | $266 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will voter turnout be 80%+ in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 31.7¢ | 99¢ | +$44 | $150 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8–12? | Yes | 87.5¢ | 100¢ | +$35 | $309 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz-KDNP win 40-44% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election? | No | 98.5¢ | 98¢ | $-50 | $200 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8–12? | Yes | 5.2¢ | 0¢ | $-153 | $156 | 12/04/2026 |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? | Yes | 6.8¢ | 0¢ | +$114 | $215 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | Yes | 2.3¢ | 0¢ | +$71 | $176 | 10/04/2026 |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? | No | 57.8¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $57 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil settle at $80–$90 on April 8? | Yes | 14.1¢ | 0¢ | +$81 | $212 | 08/04/2026 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil settle at $80–$90 on April 8? | No | 87.2¢ | 100¢ | +$25 | $168 | 08/04/2026 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil settle at $90–$100 on April 8? | Yes | 94.3¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $105 | 08/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | Yes | 43.3¢ | 88¢ | +$32 | $249 | 07/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? | Yes | 10.0¢ | 0¢ | $-27 | $40 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will Opinion launch a token on March 5? | No | 5.0¢ | 0¢ | +$2 | $45 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026? | Yes | 69.9¢ | 0¢ | $-437 | $620 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? | No | 17.0¢ | 0¢ | +$541 | $1,907 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? | No | 98.7¢ | 100¢ | +$198 | $1,572 | 31/03/2026 |
| Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026? | No | 35.1¢ | 100¢ | +$173 | $180 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 7? | Yes | 15.0¢ | 0¢ | +$163 | $109 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 7? | No | 68.9¢ | 100¢ | +$144 | $581 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 28, 2026? | No | 55.2¢ | 100¢ | +$136 | $170 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 8? | No | 76.1¢ | 0¢ | +$98 | $301 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? | No | 95.4¢ | 100¢ | +$79 | $691 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? | Yes | 38.3¢ | 100¢ | +$70 | $251 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 20, 2026? | No | 21.8¢ | 0¢ | +$59 | $36 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? | No | 64.0¢ | 100¢ | +$53 | $100 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? | No | 93.5¢ | 100¢ | +$48 | $725 | 31/03/2026 |
| Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026? | No | 57.2¢ | 100¢ | +$45 | $124 | 31/03/2026 |
| Pakistan x Afghanistan ceasefire by March 31? | No | 57.0¢ | 100¢ | +$44 | $150 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | Yes | 21.0¢ | 0¢ | +$42 | $126 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran leadership change by March 31? | No | 68.0¢ | 100¢ | +$39 | $102 | 31/03/2026 |
| France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? | No | 83.9¢ | 100¢ | +$36 | $364 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran first? | US | 39.9¢ | 50¢ | +$33 | $180 | 31/03/2026 |
| US announces military support of Iran opposition by March 31? | No | 45.0¢ | 100¢ | +$31 | $45 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6? | No | 31.0¢ | 100¢ | +$30 | $160 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026? | No | 60.0¢ | 100¢ | +$28 | $120 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by March 31? | No | 46.0¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | $46 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 5? | No | 50.0¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | $50 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | No | 33.9¢ | 0¢ | +$15 | $1,023 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? | Yes | 25.0¢ | 0¢ | +$15 | $150 | 31/03/2026 |
| AWS service disrupted by March 31? | No | 59.5¢ | 0¢ | +$14 | $60 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? | Yes | 47.6¢ | 0¢ | +$13 | $412 | 31/03/2026 |