0xb1f7...ebcc

Geopolitics 59% +$208 $1,625 vol · 37 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	No	39¢	20¢	$-11	loss
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30?	No	47¢	73¢	+$3	win
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	No	25¢	4¢	$-29	loss
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	55¢	82¢	+$14	win
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	67¢	28¢	$-1	loss
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?	Yes	62¢	100¢	$-3	loss
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	55¢	72¢	+$12	win
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?	No	59¢	4¢	$-29	loss
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	Yes	16¢	100¢	+$119	win
Will Russia capture all of Drobysheve by April 30?	No	74¢	96¢	+$14	win

Politics 40% +$16 $212 vol · 5 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	No	62¢	99¢	+$14	win
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	Yes	55¢	60¢	$-2	loss
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 15, 2026?	Yes	12¢	0¢	$-6	loss
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?	No	54¢	72¢	+$20	win
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026?	Yes	15¢	0¢	$-10	loss

Other 50% +$6 $446 vol · 8 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	92¢	100¢	+$8	win
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	No	52¢	64¢	+$6	win
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	59¢	20¢	$-4	loss
Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10?	No	34¢	100¢	+$49	win
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?	Yes	19¢	4¢	$-1	loss
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?	No	70¢	99¢	$-24	loss
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	69¢	40¢	$-37	loss
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	45¢	52¢	+$8	win

Elections 17% $-67 $218 vol · 6 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Grégory Doucet win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election?	No	13¢	0¢	$-50	loss
Will Sarah Knafo advance to the second round of the 2026 Paris municipal election?	Yes	57¢	0¢	$-19	loss
Will Sarah Knafo advance to the second round of the 2026 Paris municipal election?	No	55¢	100¢	$-0	loss
Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election?	No	29¢	0¢	$-13	loss

Culture 50% $-204 $831 vol · 7 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	35¢	0¢	$-12	loss
Will Sentimental Value win Best International Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	68¢	100¢	+$32	win
Will Teyana Taylor win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	26¢	0¢	$-1	loss
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	86¢	100¢	+$0	—
Will One Battle After Another win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	87¢	0¢	$-299	loss

Mentions 0% $-245 $286 vol · 3 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?	Yes	62¢	100¢	$-94	loss
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?	No	74¢	0¢	$-118	loss