Win rate
35.5%
75 W / 136 L
Total PnL
$-5,850
realized $-6,890 · unrealized $1,040
Portfolio
$1,040
volume $748,108
Predictions
555
2.4/day · avg $1,348
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 05/08/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | no |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 35% +$569
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? | No | 9¢ | 2¢ | $-35 | loss |
| Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 8¢ | 3¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | Yes | 29¢ | 91¢ | $-7 | loss |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $-50 | loss |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 29¢ | 0¢ | +$2 | win |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | No | 0¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | loss |
| US strikes Iran by February 10, 2026? | Yes | 5¢ | 0¢ | $-31 | loss |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | Yes | 21¢ | 0¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? | Yes | 10¢ | 0¢ | $-29 | loss |
| Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | Yes | 16¢ | 0¢ | $-50 | loss |
Sports 0% $-75
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on December 29? | Up | 31¢ | 0¢ | $-33 | loss |
| Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on December 26? | Down | 21¢ | 0¢ | $-42 | loss |
Finance 33% $-80
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones (DJI) Up or Down on January 29? | Up | 50¢ | 100¢ | $-4 | loss |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 29? | Down | 50¢ | 100¢ | $-17 | loss |
| Dow Jones (DJI) Up or Down on January 28? | Up | 58¢ | 100¢ | +$42 | win |
| Dow Jones (DJI) Up or Down on January 28? | Down | 50¢ | 0¢ | $-8 | loss |
| Dow Jones (DJI) Up or Down on January 27? | Down | 50¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on January 26? | Down | 51¢ | 0¢ | $-102 | loss |
Elections 0% $-100
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Tidjane Thiam win the 2025 Ivory Coast presidential election? | Yes | 4¢ | 0¢ | $-100 | loss |
Mentions 0% $-124
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $-29 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $-95 | loss |
Economy 0% $-148
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $-10 | loss |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | No | 1¢ | 0¢ | $-100 | loss |
| Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $-38 | loss |
Politics 33% $-152
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? | Yes | 25¢ | 36¢ | $-15 | loss |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | $-174 | loss |
Weather 40% $-194
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in London be between 53-54°F on December 6? | Yes | 15¢ | 0¢ | $-141 | loss |
| Will the highest temperature in London be between 48-49°F on December 5? | Yes | 58¢ | 0¢ | $-43 | loss |
| Will the highest temperature in London be between 52-53°F on December 5? | No | 74¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in London be between 48-49°F on December 4? | Yes | 71¢ | 0¢ | $-50 | loss |
Tech 22% $-744
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? | Yes | 9¢ | 0¢ | $-101 | loss |
| Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on January 29? | Up | 73¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Meta (META) Up or Down on January 29? | Down | 2¢ | 0¢ | $-40 | loss |
| Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on January 28? | Down | 50¢ | 100¢ | +$50 | win |
| Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on January 28? | Up | 56¢ | 0¢ | $-45 | loss |
| Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on January 28? | Down | 50¢ | 0¢ | $-50 | loss |
| Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on January 27? | Down | 50¢ | 100¢ | +$22 | win |
| Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on January 27? | Up | 55¢ | 0¢ | $-38 | loss |
| Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on January 26? | Down | 50¢ | 100¢ | +$100 | win |
| Meta (META) Up or Down on January 26? | Down | 51¢ | 0¢ | $-102 | loss |
Other 24% $-1,904
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over $2M committed to the Sol Raffle public sale? | No | 53¢ | 100¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Over $500K committed to the Sol Raffle public sale? | Yes | 66¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Yes | 30¢ | 46¢ | $-43 | loss |
| Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 10¢ | 0¢ | $-210 | loss |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15? | Yes | 18¢ | 0¢ | $-88 | loss |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | Yes | 33¢ | 0¢ | $-198 | loss |
| Penguin listed on Binance by March 31? | Yes | 37¢ | 0¢ | $-13 | loss |
| Nothing Ever Happens: MicroStrategy | No | 19¢ | 100¢ | $-18 | loss |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | Yes | 5¢ | 0¢ | $-115 | loss |
| Will MrBeast hit 120 billion views by March 31? | Yes | 9¢ | 0¢ | $-378 | loss |
Crypto 43% $-2,423
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 70¢ | 66¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Will Silver hit 100 or Bitcoin hit 100k first? | Silver | 70¢ | 100¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? | Yes | 0¢ | 1¢ | +$17 | win |
| Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase February 24-March 2? | No | 4¢ | 0¢ | $-178 | loss |
| MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase February 24-March 2? | No | 40¢ | 0¢ | $-913 | loss |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET | Up | 63¢ | 0¢ | $-31 | loss |
| MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase February 10-16? | No | 54¢ | 100¢ | +$954 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET | Down | 40¢ | 100¢ | +$30 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET | Down | 40¢ | 100¢ | +$30 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET | Up | 40¢ | 100¢ | +$30 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 14.0¢ | 100¢ | +$426 | $70 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | Yes | 3.7¢ | 0¢ | +$37 | $300 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | No | 40.3¢ | 8¢ | $-1 | $100 | 15/04/2026 |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15? | Yes | 18.4¢ | 0¢ | $-88 | $100 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 2.4¢ | 0¢ | $-174 | $424 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | Yes | 33.0¢ | 0¢ | $-198 | $200 | 12/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | No | 44.4¢ | 9¢ | +$35 | $683 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | Yes | 28.8¢ | 91¢ | $-7 | $30 | 07/04/2026 |
| Penguin listed on Binance by March 31? | Yes | 36.5¢ | 0¢ | $-13 | $50 | 01/04/2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 28.5¢ | 0¢ | +$2 | $100 | 31/03/2026 |
| Nothing Ever Happens: MicroStrategy | No | 19.1¢ | 100¢ | $-18 | $100 | 31/03/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | No | 0.2¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | $49 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | Yes | 0.2¢ | 0¢ | $-50 | $50 | 31/03/2026 |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | Yes | 4.7¢ | 0¢ | $-115 | $115 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will MrBeast hit 120 billion views by March 31? | Yes | 9.2¢ | 0¢ | $-378 | $539 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase February 24-March 2? | No | 3.7¢ | 0¢ | $-178 | $185 | 03/03/2026 |
| MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase February 24-March 2? | No | 40.0¢ | 0¢ | $-913 | $961 | 03/03/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET | Up | 62.8¢ | 0¢ | $-31 | $50 | 21/02/2026 |
| MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase February 10-16? | No | 53.8¢ | 100¢ | +$954 | $1,177 | 17/02/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET | Down | 40.0¢ | 100¢ | +$30 | $20 | 17/02/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET | Down | 40.0¢ | 100¢ | +$30 | $20 | 17/02/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET | Up | 40.0¢ | 100¢ | +$30 | $20 | 17/02/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET | Down | 40.0¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | $20 | 17/02/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET | Up | 40.0¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | $20 | 17/02/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET | Up | 40.0¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | $20 | 17/02/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET | Up | 40.0¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | $20 | 17/02/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET | Down | 40.0¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | $20 | 17/02/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET | Down | 40.0¢ | 100¢ | +$30 | $20 | 16/02/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET | Up | 40.0¢ | 100¢ | +$30 | $20 | 16/02/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET | Up | 40.0¢ | 100¢ | +$30 | $20 | 16/02/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET | Up | 40.0¢ | 100¢ | +$30 | $20 | 16/02/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET | Down | 40.0¢ | 100¢ | +$30 | $20 | 16/02/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET | Up | 40.0¢ | 100¢ | +$30 | $20 | 16/02/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET | Up | 40.0¢ | 100¢ | +$30 | $20 | 16/02/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET | Down | 40.0¢ | 100¢ | +$30 | $20 | 16/02/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET | Down | 40.0¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | $20 | 16/02/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET | Down | 40.0¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | $20 | 16/02/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET | Down | 40.0¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | $20 | 16/02/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET | Up | 40.0¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | $20 | 16/02/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET | Down | 40.0¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | $20 | 16/02/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET | Down | 40.0¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | $20 | 16/02/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET | Up | 40.0¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | $20 | 16/02/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET | Down | 40.0¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | $20 | 16/02/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET | Down | 40.0¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | $20 | 16/02/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET | Up | 39.1¢ | 0¢ | $-22 | $22 | 16/02/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET | Down | 22.5¢ | 0¢ | $-22 | $22 | 16/02/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET | Up | 40.0¢ | 0¢ | $-200 | $200 | 16/02/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET | Down | 40.0¢ | 0¢ | $-200 | $200 | 16/02/2026 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on February 12? | No | 2.6¢ | 0¢ | $-75 | $50 | 12/02/2026 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on February 12? | No | 1.4¢ | 0¢ | $-193 | $63 | 12/02/2026 |