Win rate
71.8%
3740 W / 1466 L
Total PnL
$431,555
realized $262,975 · unrealized $168,580
Portfolio
$168,580
volume $45,420,275
Predictions
5,206
17.0/day · avg $8,725
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 03/08/2024 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 19/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 19/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 75% +$111,426
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | No | 50¢ | 68¢ | $-400 | loss |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? | Yes | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$4,247 | win |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027? | Yes | 94¢ | 100¢ | $-2,209 | loss |
| Will Hashem Hosseini Bushehri be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | $-76 | loss |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | No | 57¢ | 0¢ | +$1,120 | win |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 8, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$32 | win |
| Will Maduro's rule survive a US military engagement? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$25 | win |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | Yes | 62¢ | 32¢ | $-386 | loss |
| Will the US strike Iran next? | No | 84¢ | 100¢ | $-20 | loss |
| Will Iran legalize gay marriage? | Yes | 4¢ | 2¢ | $-31 | loss |
Politics 71% +$83,692
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump launch a coin by December 31? | No | 85¢ | 78¢ | $-147 | loss |
| Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 12¢ | 0¢ | $-1,692 | loss |
| Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize? | Yes | 36¢ | 100¢ | +$328 | win |
| Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize? | No | 0¢ | 0¢ | +$242 | win |
| Will Trump flip the bird again in 2026? | No | 52¢ | 76¢ | +$102 | win |
| Trump declassifies UFO files before 2027? | No | 12¢ | 0¢ | +$17 | win |
| Will Trump's approval rating hit 40% in 2026? | Yes | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Trump's approval rating hit 47% in 2026? | No | 93¢ | 95¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Trump flip the bird again in 2026? | Yes | 56¢ | 24¢ | $-9 | loss |
Other 73% +$82,086
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX? | No | 79¢ | 99¢ | +$140 | win |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to at least 60 years in prison? | No | 56¢ | 64¢ | +$35 | win |
| Over $30M committed to the Trove public sale? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | win |
| Kodiak FDV above $50M one day after launch? | Yes | 7¢ | 0¢ | +$1,953 | win |
| Over $5M committed to the Infinex public sale? | Yes | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$117 | win |
| EdgeX FDV above $300M one day after launch? | No | 7¢ | 0¢ | $-490 | loss |
| Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Over $10M committed to the Infinex public sale? | No | 86¢ | 100¢ | +$86 | win |
| EdgeX FDV above $400M one day after launch? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$25 | win |
| Kinetiq FDV above $250M one day after launch? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
Crypto 77% +$53,960
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Betmoar launch a token by June 30, 2026? | No | 74¢ | 88¢ | +$15 | win |
| Will Opinion launch a token by March 31, 2026? | No | 17¢ | 0¢ | $-1,998 | loss |
| Will GMGN launch a token by December 31, 2025? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$92 | win |
| Will OpenSea launch a token by June 30, 2026? | No | 92¢ | 94¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will MegaETH launch a token by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 89¢ | 92¢ | +$1 | win |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30? | No | 94¢ | 98¢ | +$265 | win |
| MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase April 7-13? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$64 | win |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$68 | win |
| Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31? | No | 64¢ | 0¢ | +$98 | win |
| Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$45 | win |
Tech 81% +$50,350
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over $8M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? | Yes | 77¢ | 0¢ | $-2,359 | loss |
| Over $180M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$55 | win |
| Over $50M committed to the Hurupay public sale? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| GPT-5.5 released by April 15, 2026? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$462 | win |
| GPT-5.5 released by April 23, 2026? | Yes | 80¢ | 82¢ | $-30 | loss |
| ChatGPT Outage by April 10? | No | 80¢ | 0¢ | $-299 | loss |
| GPT-5.3 released by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$228 | win |
| GPT ads by March 31? | Yes | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| GPT-5.4 released by March 31? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | win |
Elections 75% +$17,499
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? | No | 54¢ | 64¢ | +$1,089 | win |
| Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections? | Yes | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$272 | win |
| Will CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections? | No | 1¢ | 0¢ | $-164 | loss |
| Will The Greens win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections? | Yes | 7¢ | 0¢ | $-19 | loss |
| Will The Greens win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$793 | win |
| Will António José Seguro win the second round by 40–50%? | Yes | 22¢ | 0¢ | $-152 | loss |
| Will António José Seguro win the second round by 10–20%? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$125 | win |
| Will Kast win by 5% to 10%? | No | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$43 | win |
| Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | Yes | 13¢ | 0¢ | $-86 | loss |
| Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$37 | win |
Sports 66% +$14,161
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 64¢ | 61¢ | $-10 | loss |
| Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Yes | 8¢ | 10¢ | +$248 | win |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | No | 93¢ | 85¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year? | Yes | 86¢ | 99¢ | +$128 | win |
| OKC breaks NBA single-season wins record? | No | 87¢ | 100¢ | +$37 | win |
| Magic vs. Celtics | Magic | 19¢ | 0¢ | $-328 | loss |
| Will Hasanabi be unbanned from Twitch by March 31? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
| LoL: G2 NORD vs Verdant (BO3) - EMEA Masters Playoffs | G2 NORD | 73¢ | 100¢ | +$27 | win |
| Lakers vs. Pistons | Pistons | 46¢ | 100¢ | +$178 | win |
| LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs | Bilibili Gaming | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$299 | win |
Mentions 51% +$13,515
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026? | No | 0¢ | 0¢ | $-24 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? | Yes | 83¢ | 100¢ | +$1,266 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$88 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026? | Yes | 42¢ | 0¢ | $-1,903 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026? | Yes | 71¢ | 100¢ | +$197 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 14 to February 16, 2026? | Yes | 5¢ | 0¢ | $-95 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026? | No | 89¢ | 100¢ | $-11 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026? | Yes | 74¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026? | Yes | 29¢ | 0¢ | $-629 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026? | Yes | 31¢ | 0¢ | $-3,294 | loss |
Esports 70% +$11,241
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gen.G complete the League of Legends “Golden Road” in 2026? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | win |
| Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs | Spirit | 62¢ | 100¢ | +$562 | win |
| Valorant: TYLOO vs JD Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Group Alpha | JD Gaming | 79¢ | 100¢ | +$56 | win |
| LoL: G2 Esports vs Team Vitality (BO3) - LEC Regular Season | G2 Esports | 63¢ | 0¢ | +$122 | win |
| Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham Playoffs | Aurora | 25¢ | 0¢ | +$94 | win |
| Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham Playoffs | Tundra Esports | 78¢ | 100¢ | $-19 | loss |
| Will G2 Esports win First Stand 2026? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | $-228 | loss |
| Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 | FUT Esports | 62¢ | 100¢ | +$267 | win |
| Will Jynxzi & Joe Bart win Jynxzi's Rocket League tournament? | No | 82¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
| Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage | Vitality | 70¢ | 100¢ | +$350 | win |
Economy 69% +$3,016
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? | No | 59¢ | 100¢ | +$1,740 | win |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | win |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$293 | win |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? | No | 3¢ | 0¢ | $-155 | loss |
| Will Bryan Johnson say "Don’t Die" while tripping balls? | No | 30¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | loss |
| Will Bryan Johnson say "Erection" while tripping balls? | Yes | 31¢ | 0¢ | $-111 | loss |
| No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? | No | 79¢ | 100¢ | +$240 | win |
| No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$123 | win |
| Will Powell say "Recession" during June Press Conference? | No | 31¢ | 100¢ | +$518 | win |
| No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$42 | win |
Weather 100% +$487
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Palisades wildfire spread to Santa Monica by Sunday? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will Pete Buttigieg say "Climate change" in DNC speech? | No | 49¢ | 100¢ | +$461 | win |
| Will Obama say "Climate change" at DNC speech? | No | 32¢ | 0¢ | +$15 | win |
| Will Obama say "Climate change" at DNC speech? | Yes | 36¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
Finance 71% +$330
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will SOLV Energy, Inc.'s market cap be less than $3.8B at market close on IPO day? | No | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$126 | win |
| Will the next James Bond be British? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$28 | win |
| S&P 500 all time high by December 31? | No | 41¢ | 0¢ | $-484 | loss |
| Will anyone say "Advertisement" during the Q2 2025 AMC earnings call? | No | 85¢ | 0¢ | $-170 | loss |
| Bondi, Bongino or Patel out by July 31? | No | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$170 | win |
| Will Florian Lipowitz finish in the top five at the Tour de France 2025? | No | 57¢ | 0¢ | $-53 | loss |
| Bondi, Bongino or Patel out by July 18th? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$314 | win |
| Will anyone say "Recession" during the Q2 2025 Netflix earnings call? | No | 75¢ | 100¢ | +$49 | win |
| 10-year Treasury yield >4.5% Friday? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy by May 31? | Yes | 4¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | loss |
Culture 76% $-16,109
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-67 | loss |
| Will Danil "donk" Kryshkovets win the HLTV Player of the Year award? | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$180 | win |
| Will Mathieu "ZywOo" Herbaut win the HLTV Player of the Year award? | Yes | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$107 | win |
| Will Drin "Makazze" Shaqiri win the HLTV Rookie of the Year award | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 3rd Weekend Box Office be greater than 50m? | No | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will Olivia Rodrigo release an album in 2025? | Yes | 15¢ | 0¢ | +$3,006 | win |
| Will Olivia Rodrigo release an album in 2025? | No | 93¢ | 100¢ | $-1,589 | loss |
| Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? | Yes | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$75 | win |
| Will DeBÍ TiRAR MáS FOToS by Bad Bunny be the top Spotify album for 2025? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$53 | win |
| Will Drake be the third most streamed Spotify artist for 2025? | Yes | 65¢ | 0¢ | $-12,985 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.5 released by April 19, 2026? | No | 91.2¢ | 100¢ | +$110 | $1,537 | 19/04/2026 |
| Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? | Yes | 51.2¢ | 100¢ | +$4,421 | $5,065 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? | No | 48.0¢ | 100¢ | +$755 | $1,440 | 17/04/2026 |
| Trump announces Attorney General pick by April 17, 2026? | No | 83.7¢ | 100¢ | +$631 | $3,985 | 17/04/2026 |
| Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs | Spirit | 62.0¢ | 100¢ | +$562 | $918 | 17/04/2026 |
| GPT-5.5 released by April 17, 2026? | No | 95.1¢ | 100¢ | +$500 | $9,635 | 17/04/2026 |
| Trump announces Attorney General pick by April 10, 2026? | No | 95.8¢ | 100¢ | +$33 | $745 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Anish Giri win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? | No | 93.0¢ | 100¢ | +$28 | $465 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Matthias Bluebaum win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? | Yes | 2.1¢ | 0¢ | $-63 | $66 | 17/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | Yes | 57.4¢ | 80¢ | +$6,422 | $18,616 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | No | 21.0¢ | 0¢ | +$5,364 | $4,882 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 93.5¢ | 100¢ | +$4,914 | $72,304 | 15/04/2026 |
| GPT-5.5 released by April 15, 2026? | No | 94.7¢ | 100¢ | +$462 | $8,239 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | Yes | 16.0¢ | 0¢ | +$99 | $790 | 15/04/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | No | 97.5¢ | 100¢ | +$82 | $12,275 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | No | 39.5¢ | 21¢ | +$56 | $654 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 75.7¢ | 100¢ | $-3,780 | $30,553 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | No | 52.2¢ | 100¢ | $-5,051 | $18,329 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 7.3¢ | 0¢ | $-6,592 | $2,208 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | No | 19.5¢ | 21¢ | +$139 | $1,277 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? | Yes | 20.0¢ | 0¢ | $-416 | $416 | 15/04/2026 |
| GPT-5.5 released by April 23, 2026? | Yes | 80.3¢ | 82¢ | $-30 | $773 | 15/04/2026 |
| MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase April 7-13? | Yes | 97.1¢ | 100¢ | +$64 | $2,152 | 14/04/2026 |
| Valorant: TYLOO vs JD Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Group Alpha | JD Gaming | 79.0¢ | 100¢ | +$56 | $212 | 14/04/2026 |
| LeBron 10+ point streak broken this season? | Yes | 62.8¢ | 100¢ | +$573 | $1,022 | 12/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 12, 2026? | No | 94.0¢ | 100¢ | +$488 | $7,638 | 12/04/2026 |
| OKC breaks NBA single-season wins record? | No | 86.9¢ | 100¢ | +$37 | $350 | 12/04/2026 |
| Magic vs. Celtics | Magic | 18.8¢ | 0¢ | $-328 | $1,483 | 12/04/2026 |
| LoL: G2 Esports vs Team Vitality (BO3) - LEC Regular Season | G2 Esports | 63.0¢ | 0¢ | +$122 | $7,700 | 11/04/2026 |
| ChatGPT Outage by April 10? | No | 80.0¢ | 0¢ | $-299 | $787 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 10? | No | 30.8¢ | 0¢ | $-2,468 | $3,822 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 99.3¢ | 100¢ | +$2,044 | $80,630 | 07/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? | No | 97.7¢ | 100¢ | +$1,565 | $22,513 | 07/04/2026 |
| Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? | Yes | 55.0¢ | 100¢ | +$69 | $1,039 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | No | 52.3¢ | 21¢ | $-14 | $122 | 07/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 3.4¢ | 0¢ | $-2,264 | $4,539 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | Yes | 38.1¢ | 79¢ | +$8,370 | $24,603 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will Trump's remarks not air? | No | 99.5¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $639 | 06/04/2026 |
| Any of the stolen KitKats recovered by April 5? | No | 80.7¢ | 100¢ | +$1,627 | $14,374 | 05/04/2026 |
| Will Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Perth Glory FC end in a draw? | Yes | 70.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1,193 | $2,783 | 04/04/2026 |
| Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-04-04? | No | 69.0¢ | 0¢ | $-3,263 | $3,627 | 04/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "NATO" during Address to the Nation? | No | 11.9¢ | 100¢ | +$5,585 | $753 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Ceasefire" or "Peace Deal" during Address to the Nation? | No | 56.3¢ | 100¢ | +$5,288 | $6,817 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Kharg" or "Island" during Address to the Nation? | No | 72.2¢ | 100¢ | +$795 | $2,062 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "April Fool" or "April Fool's" during Address to the Nation? | No | 93.7¢ | 100¢ | +$773 | $12,087 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Khamenei" or "Khomeini" during Address to the Nation? | No | 58.4¢ | 100¢ | +$630 | $2,223 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Bibi" or "Netanyahu" during Address to the Nation? | No | 75.8¢ | 100¢ | +$578 | $1,810 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Address to the Nation? | No | 97.9¢ | 100¢ | +$127 | $12,516 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Trump's remarks not air? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$96 | $9,611 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? | No | 93.5¢ | 100¢ | +$68 | $971 | 01/04/2026 |