Win rate
69.0%
20 W / 9 L
Total PnL
$52
realized $-2,689 · unrealized $2,741
Portfolio
$2,741
volume $9,215
Predictions
81
6.5/day · avg $114
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 03/04/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 91% +$127
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 68¢ | 69¢ | +$1 | win |
| Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | 91¢ | 94¢ | +$10 | win |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? | Yes | 97¢ | 98¢ | +$0 | win |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | No | 79¢ | 78¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 21, 2026? | Yes | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? | Yes | 40¢ | 49¢ | +$6 | win |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | Yes | 22¢ | 36¢ | +$24 | win |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | No | 84¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
Politics 100% +$11
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15? | No | 98¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Trump visit China by April 30? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | win |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 85¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
Economy 100% +$9
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | Yes | 92¢ | 92¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | Yes | 99¢ | 99¢ | +$2 | win |
Other 50% +$1
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Yes | 44¢ | 48¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? | Yes | 95¢ | 94¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | No | 91¢ | 90¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Starmer out by April 30, 2026? | No | 98¢ | 92¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Yes | 29¢ | 56¢ | +$31 | win |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | win |
Elections 0% $-0
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? | No | 94¢ | 93¢ | $-0 | loss |
Sports 0% $-6
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UFC Fight Night: Dennis Buzukja vs. Marcio Barbosa (Featherweight, Prelims) | Marcio Barbosa | 82¢ | 80¢ | $-5 | loss |
| UFC Fight Night: John Castaneda vs. Mark Vologdin (Bantamweight, Prelims) | Mark Vologdin | 47¢ | 46¢ | $-1 | loss |
| UFC Fight Night: Gilbert Burns vs. Mike Malott (Welterweight, Main Card) | Mike Malott | 72¢ | 72¢ | $-0 | loss |
Recent Trades (29)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | Yes | 90.0¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | $174 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 85.1¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $73 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | No | 83.8¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $29 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? | No | 98.4¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $31 | 15/04/2026 |
| UFC Fight Night: Dennis Buzukja vs. Marcio Barbosa (Featherweight, Prelims) | Marcio Barbosa | 82.4¢ | 80¢ | $-5 | $140 | 19/04/2026 |
| UFC Fight Night: John Castaneda vs. Mark Vologdin (Bantamweight, Prelims) | Mark Vologdin | 47.0¢ | 46¢ | $-1 | $73 | 19/04/2026 |
| UFC Fight Night: Gilbert Burns vs. Mike Malott (Welterweight, Main Card) | Mike Malott | 72.0¢ | 72¢ | $-0 | $33 | 19/04/2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | Yes | 22.1¢ | 36¢ | +$24 | $40 | 22/04/2026 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | Yes | 98.7¢ | 99¢ | +$2 | $385 | 29/04/2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Yes | 29.0¢ | 56¢ | +$31 | $33 | 30/04/2026 |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? | Yes | 39.6¢ | 49¢ | +$6 | $27 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? | No | 98.7¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | $36 | 30/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 73.7¢ | 100¢ | +$55 | $153 | 30/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 21, 2026? | Yes | 90.5¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $55 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Trump visit China by April 30? | No | 98.7¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | $33 | 30/04/2026 |
| Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15? | No | 98.4¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | $25 | 15/05/2026 |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | No | 78.5¢ | 78¢ | $-0 | $60 | 31/05/2026 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | Yes | 91.6¢ | 92¢ | +$7 | $710 | 17/06/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | 91.0¢ | 94¢ | +$10 | $352 | 30/06/2026 |
| Starmer out by April 30, 2026? | No | 98.1¢ | 92¢ | $-2 | $30 | 30/06/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? | Yes | 97.2¢ | 98¢ | +$0 | $20 | 30/06/2026 |
| Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026? | Yes | 97.6¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $129 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | No | 91.0¢ | 90¢ | $-0 | $27 | 10/10/2026 |
| Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? | Yes | 94.7¢ | 94¢ | $-0 | $95 | 31/10/2026 |
| Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? | No | 98.7¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | $55 | 31/10/2026 |
| Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Yes | 58.1¢ | 34¢ | $-34 | $83 | 31/12/2026 |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Yes | 43.7¢ | 48¢ | +$6 | $60 | 31/12/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 68.0¢ | 69¢ | +$1 | $38 | 31/12/2026 |
| Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? | No | 94.0¢ | 93¢ | $-0 | $30 | 30/04/2027 |