Win rate
54.4%
318 W / 266 L
Total PnL
$1,258
realized $-9,881 · unrealized $11,139
Portfolio
$11,139
volume $901,308
Predictions
582
14.7/day · avg $1,549
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 11/01/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | no |
Category breakdown
Other 58% +$1,428
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? | Yes | 77¢ | 84¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? | Yes | 14¢ | 6¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? | No | 57¢ | 71¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Viktor Orbán out by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 61¢ | 99¢ | +$9 | win |
| US strike on Mexico by January 31? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | No | 77¢ | 84¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | No | 96¢ | 96¢ | +$1 | win |
| Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? | No | 95¢ | 96¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Venezuela become 51st state? | No | 97¢ | 96¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Epstein confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31? | No | 96¢ | 97¢ | $-1 | loss |
Geopolitics 54% +$547
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 66¢ | 72¢ | +$258 | win |
| Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | Yes | 7¢ | 0¢ | $-153 | loss |
| Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? | Yes | 10¢ | 9¢ | +$46 | win |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by January 31? | No | 86¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | No | 3¢ | 0¢ | $-183 | loss |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 78¢ | 84¢ | +$24 | win |
| Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? | No | 74¢ | 90¢ | +$21 | win |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by January 31? | Yes | 8¢ | 0¢ | $-54 | loss |
| Iran leadership change by March 13? | Yes | 10¢ | 0¢ | $-131 | loss |
| Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? | No | 72¢ | 84¢ | +$13 | win |
Politics 51% +$48
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | No | 95¢ | 95¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 26¢ | 27¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | Yes | 17¢ | 16¢ | +$5 | win |
| US strikes Iran or Trump announces Fed nominee first? | Trump Announce Fed | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 11¢ | 10¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | 83¢ | 92¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will Trump meet with Pope Leo XIV in 2026? | Yes | 44¢ | 28¢ | $-8 | loss |
| US strikes Iran or Trump announces Fed nominee first? | US Strikes Iran | 20¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | loss |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | No | 84¢ | 84¢ | $-9 | loss |
Crypto 55% +$30
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | No | 92¢ | 92¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 28¢ | 24¢ | $-8 | loss |
| Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 22¢ | 18¢ | $-8 | loss |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 29¢ | 44¢ | +$114 | win |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? | No | 87¢ | 90¢ | +$1 | win |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30? | No | 94¢ | 97¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 3? | No | 27¢ | 0¢ | $-32 | loss |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 2? | Yes | 7¢ | 0¢ | $-44 | loss |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? | No | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January? | Yes | 16¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
Tech 100% +$1
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Cook out as Apple CEO by March 31? | No | 89¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
Sports 0% $-26
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the United States win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? | Yes | 28¢ | 0¢ | $-26 | loss |
Elections 50% $-238
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 16¢ | 17¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? | Yes | 93¢ | 90¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Yes | 43¢ | 44¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | No | 5¢ | 5¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | Yes | 72¢ | 66¢ | $-7 | loss |
| Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 9%+? | Yes | 38¢ | 99¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will To Lam be elected General Secretary of the Vietnamese Communist Party? | Yes | 88¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Ukraine election called by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 6¢ | 0¢ | $-198 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | Yes | 3.0¢ | 0¢ | +$423 | $366 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 14.5¢ | 100¢ | +$265 | $425 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | No | 94.3¢ | 100¢ | +$34 | $2,086 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | No | 21.0¢ | 0¢ | +$15 | $126 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026? | No | 7.0¢ | 0¢ | $-3 | $57 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 15.6¢ | 0¢ | $-102 | $201 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | Yes | 72.7¢ | 94¢ | +$1,303 | $4,289 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026? | No | 86.0¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | $183 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | No | 64.3¢ | 100¢ | +$43 | $372 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 9%+? | Yes | 38.0¢ | 99¢ | $-3 | $45 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Yes | 98.8¢ | 99¢ | $-0 | $178 | 12/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | No | 44.0¢ | 100¢ | +$43 | $132 | 10/04/2026 |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? | Yes | 18.5¢ | 0¢ | +$42 | $77 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | Yes | 10.3¢ | 0¢ | +$10 | $236 | 10/04/2026 |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? | No | 83.0¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $112 | 10/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | Yes | 28.1¢ | 93¢ | +$588 | $2,329 | 07/04/2026 |
| Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? | Yes | 59.8¢ | 100¢ | +$215 | $1,464 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | No | 36.0¢ | 7¢ | +$35 | $173 | 07/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 6.4¢ | 0¢ | $-83 | $286 | 07/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | $-134 | $3,604 | 07/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? | Yes | 2.6¢ | 0¢ | $-475 | $500 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? | No | 39.0¢ | 0¢ | +$352 | $870 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Ukraine re-enter Huliaipole by March 31? | Yes | 15.4¢ | 100¢ | +$303 | $74 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 8? | Yes | 15.2¢ | 100¢ | +$225 | $149 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? | No | 33.4¢ | 100¢ | +$194 | $240 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran first? | US | 26.6¢ | 50¢ | +$147 | $329 | 31/03/2026 |
| Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 52.0¢ | 100¢ | +$113 | $232 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? | No | 97.3¢ | 100¢ | +$93 | $458 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by March 31? | No | 15.0¢ | 100¢ | +$92 | $37 | 31/03/2026 |
| US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31? | No | 7.6¢ | 0¢ | +$88 | $153 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forcibly removes Khamenei from power by March 31? | Yes | 15.9¢ | 0¢ | +$87 | $196 | 31/03/2026 |
| France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? | No | 78.7¢ | 100¢ | +$86 | $1,018 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31? | Yes | 4.8¢ | 0¢ | +$86 | $210 | 31/03/2026 |
| Nothing Ever Happens: Khamenei | No | 59.7¢ | 100¢ | +$60 | $342 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | No | 76.3¢ | 100¢ | +$56 | $1,184 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March? | Yes | 12.0¢ | 0¢ | +$53 | $81 | 31/03/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by March 31, 2026? | No | 62.0¢ | 100¢ | +$52 | $722 | 31/03/2026 |
| Houthi strike on Israel by March 15, 2026? | No | 64.5¢ | 100¢ | +$49 | $151 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6? | Yes | 31.2¢ | 0¢ | +$46 | $119 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | Yes | 87.5¢ | 100¢ | +$43 | $745 | 31/03/2026 |
| France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? | Yes | 12.8¢ | 0¢ | +$35 | $122 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | Yes | 14.0¢ | 0¢ | +$33 | $221 | 31/03/2026 |
| Nothing Ever Happens: US Strike Edition | Yes | 39.0¢ | 0¢ | +$32 | $156 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31? | No | 96.0¢ | 100¢ | +$31 | $777 | 31/03/2026 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31? | Yes | 3.1¢ | 0¢ | +$29 | $74 | 31/03/2026 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31? | No | 77.0¢ | 100¢ | +$27 | $139 | 31/03/2026 |
| Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | No | 37.0¢ | 0¢ | +$26 | $73 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran first? | Israel | 67.8¢ | 50¢ | +$23 | $473 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th? | No | 86.9¢ | 100¢ | +$23 | $366 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? | Yes | 13.4¢ | 0¢ | +$22 | $233 | 31/03/2026 |