Win rate
35.5%
11 W / 20 L
Total PnL
$-326
realized $-1,456 · unrealized $1,130
Portfolio
$1,130
volume $27,163
Predictions
71
1.3/day · avg $383
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 15/06/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | no |
Category breakdown
Elections 57% +$528
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 27¢ | 25¢ | $-12 | loss |
| Will TISZA win 54%+ of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election? | Yes | 34¢ | 4¢ | +$16 | win |
| Will Tisza win at least 130 seats? | Yes | 36¢ | 100¢ | +$154 | win |
| Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 12-15%? | Yes | 87¢ | 88¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Tisza win at least 120 seats? | No | 36¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | loss |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Yes | 89¢ | 100¢ | +$234 | win |
Other 67% +$499
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Yes | 27¢ | 52¢ | +$24 | win |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | Yes | 27¢ | 1¢ | $-49 | loss |
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31? | No | 74¢ | 100¢ | +$523 | win |
Politics 100% +$153
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? | No | 62¢ | 62¢ | +$67 | win |
Sports 50% $-83
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UFC 324: Yadong vs. O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card) | OMalley | 66¢ | 100¢ | +$36 | win |
| UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card) | Pimblett | 68¢ | 0¢ | $-119 | loss |
Geopolitics 12% $-1,304
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | No | 25¢ | 0¢ | $-51 | loss |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? | Yes | 58¢ | 0¢ | $-191 | loss |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | Yes | 31¢ | 6¢ | $-79 | loss |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? | No | 23¢ | 22¢ | $-1 | loss |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | No | 62¢ | 62¢ | $-4 | loss |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | No | 65¢ | 0¢ | $-616 | loss |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 7? | No | 75¢ | 100¢ | +$101 | win |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4? | Yes | 73¢ | 0¢ | $-42 | loss |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | No | 89¢ | 100¢ | +$266 | win |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? | Yes | 31¢ | 0¢ | $-70 | loss |
Recent Trades (31)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 81.0¢ | 100¢ | +$87 | $450 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | No | 65.0¢ | 0¢ | $-616 | $851 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | No | 38.5¢ | 9¢ | $-169 | $264 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Tisza win at least 130 seats? | Yes | 35.9¢ | 100¢ | +$154 | $90 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will TISZA win 54%+ of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election? | Yes | 34.5¢ | 4¢ | +$16 | $100 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 12-15%? | Yes | 87.4¢ | 88¢ | $-0 | $208 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Tisza win at least 120 seats? | No | 35.9¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | $36 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will TISZA win 50-54% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election? | Yes | 57.3¢ | 96¢ | +$156 | $232 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | Yes | 27.0¢ | 1¢ | $-49 | $50 | 12/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | No | 58.2¢ | 9¢ | $-135 | $160 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 7? | No | 74.6¢ | 100¢ | +$101 | $295 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 3? | Yes | 51.9¢ | 0¢ | $-19 | $100 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 2? | Yes | 36.0¢ | 0¢ | $-29 | $29 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will any E.U. country strike Iran by March 31? | Yes | 9.0¢ | 0¢ | $-40 | $40 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4? | Yes | 73.0¢ | 0¢ | $-42 | $100 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31? | No | 74.0¢ | 100¢ | +$523 | $1,489 | 31/01/2026 |
| UFC 324: Yadong vs. O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card) | OMalley | 66.0¢ | 100¢ | +$36 | $70 | 25/01/2026 |
| UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card) | Pimblett | 68.0¢ | 0¢ | $-119 | $119 | 25/01/2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | No | 89.0¢ | 100¢ | +$266 | $2,148 | 31/12/2025 |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? | Yes | 31.0¢ | 0¢ | $-70 | $70 | 30/11/2025 |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Yes | 89.5¢ | 100¢ | +$234 | $1,994 | 04/11/2025 |
| Will UK strike Iran by March 31? | Yes | 18.0¢ | 0¢ | $-60 | $60 | 01/01/1970 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | No | 50.0¢ | 0¢ | $-166 | $200 | 01/01/1970 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? | No | 62.0¢ | 62¢ | +$67 | $285 | 21/04/2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | No | 61.9¢ | 62¢ | $-4 | $555 | 22/04/2026 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? | No | 23.1¢ | 22¢ | $-1 | $36 | 30/04/2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Yes | 27.0¢ | 52¢ | +$24 | $27 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 27.4¢ | 25¢ | $-12 | $100 | 07/06/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | Yes | 31.0¢ | 6¢ | $-79 | $100 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | No | 24.9¢ | 0¢ | $-51 | $51 | 31/12/2026 |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? | Yes | 58.2¢ | 0¢ | $-191 | $191 | 31/12/2026 |