Win rate
51.9%
97 W / 90 L
Total PnL
$396
realized $-8,813 · unrealized $9,209
Portfolio
$9,209
volume $534,019
Predictions
149
6.6/day · avg $3,584
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 09/02/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 18/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 18/04/2026 |
| Qualified | no |
Category breakdown
Other 53% +$518
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | No | 96¢ | 96¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | No | 85¢ | 82¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? | No | 97¢ | 99¢ | +$8 | win |
| Netanyahu out by June 30? | Yes | 8¢ | 6¢ | $-8 | loss |
| Netanyahu out by April 30? | No | 97¢ | 99¢ | +$14 | win |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | Yes | 12¢ | 0¢ | $-33 | loss |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | No | 8¢ | 1¢ | $-96 | loss |
| Nothing Ever Happens: Khamenei | Yes | 76¢ | 0¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Nothing Ever Happens: Khamenei | No | 93¢ | 100¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Fed rate cut by March 2026 meeting? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$55 | win |
Politics 64% +$460
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | No | 0¢ | 0¢ | $-23 | loss |
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 3¢ | 0¢ | $-43 | loss |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | 89¢ | 93¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | No | 72¢ | 40¢ | $-17 | loss |
| Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | Yes | 71¢ | 40¢ | $-35 | loss |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 17, 2026? | No | 88¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? | No | 66¢ | 80¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 10, 2026? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? | Yes | 11¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | loss |
| Will Trump visit China by March 31? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
Elections 61% +$26
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 51¢ | 66¢ | +$17 | win |
| Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 48¢ | 34¢ | $-9 | loss |
| Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 14¢ | 0¢ | $-8 | loss |
| Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 34¢ | 0¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election? | No | 42¢ | 0¢ | $-43 | loss |
| Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election? | Yes | 43¢ | 0¢ | $-17 | loss |
| Will The Greens win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections? | No | 47¢ | 100¢ | +$26 | win |
| Will The Greens win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections? | Yes | 41¢ | 0¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election? | Yes | 82¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
Crypto 100% +$4
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30? | No | 94¢ | 98¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Economy 38% $-134
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | No | 5¢ | 1¢ | $-10 | loss |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | Yes | 98¢ | 99¢ | +$14 | win |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting? | Yes | 4¢ | 0¢ | $-239 | loss |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting? | No | 2¢ | 0¢ | $-36 | loss |
Geopolitics 48% $-396
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | No | 75¢ | 87¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | Yes | 70¢ | 100¢ | +$134 | win |
| Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? | No | 82¢ | 88¢ | +$6 | win |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | No | 72¢ | 70¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished? | No | 88¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | $-16 | loss |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | No | 68¢ | 31¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes | 31¢ | 26¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | Yes | 35¢ | 30¢ | $-9 | loss |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | No | 3¢ | 0¢ | $-11 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | Yes | 88.5¢ | 86¢ | +$311 | $1,526 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 87.8¢ | 100¢ | +$120 | $849 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 89.3¢ | 100¢ | +$96 | $4,985 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | No | 37.1¢ | 0¢ | +$13 | $1,849 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | No | 91.2¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $182 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | Yes | 88.9¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $52 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 54.7¢ | 0¢ | $-3 | $20 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | Yes | 17.0¢ | 0¢ | $-13 | $130 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | No | 34.9¢ | 14¢ | $-141 | $476 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | No | 80.0¢ | 100¢ | +$473 | $4,176 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 85.0¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $252 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 97.8¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $228 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 34.5¢ | 0¢ | $-5 | $42 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 14.0¢ | 0¢ | $-8 | $26 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | Yes | 12.0¢ | 0¢ | $-33 | $219 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | No | 7.5¢ | 1¢ | $-96 | $388 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Yes | 98.8¢ | 99¢ | $-17 | $3,513 | 12/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | No | 94.3¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $44 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 10? | Yes | 92.7¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $77 | 10/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 10, 2026? | No | 95.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $22 | 10/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | Yes | 87.5¢ | 86¢ | +$21 | $926 | 07/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? | No | 95.7¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $1,032 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | No | 35.6¢ | 14¢ | +$2 | $185 | 07/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? | Yes | 10.0¢ | 0¢ | $-5 | $36 | 07/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | $-7 | $3,557 | 07/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 19.0¢ | 0¢ | $-152 | $715 | 07/04/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | Yes | 97.5¢ | 100¢ | +$212 | $5,823 | 31/03/2026 |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | No | 97.9¢ | 100¢ | +$94 | $5,255 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? | No | 97.6¢ | 100¢ | +$55 | $1,219 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 86.5¢ | 100¢ | +$38 | $669 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | No | 98.6¢ | 100¢ | +$27 | $979 | 31/03/2026 |
| France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? | No | 77.6¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | $312 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? | No | 89.7¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $105 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? | No | 98.6¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $82 | 31/03/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? | No | 91.2¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $177 | 31/03/2026 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by March 31, 2026? | No | 98.7¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $59 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? | No | 88.6¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $53 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 8, 2026? | No | 97.7¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $28 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31? | Yes | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $90 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31? | No | 88.0¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | $49 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4? | No | 88.0¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | $43 | 31/03/2026 |
| Nothing Ever Happens: Khamenei | Yes | 76.0¢ | 0¢ | $-2 | $169 | 31/03/2026 |
| Nothing Ever Happens: Khamenei | No | 92.8¢ | 100¢ | $-3 | $111 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | Yes | 3.0¢ | 0¢ | $-4 | $42 | 31/03/2026 |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | Yes | 3.1¢ | 0¢ | $-5 | $96 | 31/03/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? | Yes | 8.0¢ | 0¢ | $-5 | $23 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran first? | Israel | 57.1¢ | 50¢ | $-8 | $95 | 31/03/2026 |
| France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? | Yes | 19.0¢ | 0¢ | $-9 | $79 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | Yes | 14.0¢ | 0¢ | $-23 | $55 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? | Yes | 11.0¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | $77 | 31/03/2026 |