Win rate
66.9%
166 W / 82 L
Total PnL
$-38,563
realized $-73,118 · unrealized $34,555
Portfolio
$34,555
volume $2,108,103
Predictions
267
4.8/day · avg $7,896
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 21/10/2024 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 18/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 18/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 68% +$13,944
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran leadership change by March 13? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$283 | win |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027? | No | 15¢ | 0¢ | $-121 | loss |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Iran leadership change by March 13? | Yes | 6¢ | 0¢ | $-26 | loss |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | Yes | 79¢ | 100¢ | $-131 | loss |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | No | 29¢ | 0¢ | $-929 | loss |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes | 57¢ | 24¢ | $-3,305 | loss |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 67¢ | 84¢ | +$330 | win |
| US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? | No | 82¢ | 86¢ | +$9 | win |
| Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | No | 83¢ | 91¢ | +$16 | win |
Economy 80% +$6,224
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting? | No | 1¢ | 0¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Japan’s January 2026 unemployment rate be 2.6%? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | $-877 | loss |
| Will Japan’s January 2026 unemployment rate be ≥2.7%? | No | 0¢ | 0¢ | +$128 | win |
Crypto 100% +$691
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026? | No | 95¢ | 98¢ | +$12 | win |
| Will Paradex launch a token on March 5? | Yes | 78¢ | 100¢ | +$680 | win |
Culture 100% +$7
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 75¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will 'Jurassic World: Rebirth' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
Mentions 33% $-361
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Khamenei tweet again by March 7? | No | 70¢ | 0¢ | $-331 | loss |
Tech 60% $-2,779
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 9? | Yes | 43¢ | 100¢ | +$23 | win |
| Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 8? | No | 32¢ | 0¢ | $-2,771 | loss |
| Will Jensen Huang's remarks not air? | No | 88¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
Other 59% $-5,920
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | No | 81¢ | 82¢ | $-36 | loss |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | No | 85¢ | 84¢ | $-114 | loss |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | No | 82¢ | 40¢ | $-512 | loss |
| Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Yes | 17¢ | 18¢ | +$15 | win |
| US strike on Mexico by December 31? | No | 67¢ | 78¢ | +$38 | win |
| U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by June 30? | Yes | 47¢ | 15¢ | $-32 | loss |
| Epstein client list released by June 30? | No | 88¢ | 88¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | No | 66¢ | 64¢ | $-190 | loss |
| Will Greece send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026? | No | 97¢ | 97¢ | $-1 | loss |
| U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by March 31? | No | 85¢ | 100¢ | +$453 | win |
Politics 77% $-12,396
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 37¢ | 39¢ | +$60 | win |
| Trump cabinet member out by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027? | No | 34¢ | 45¢ | +$204 | win |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 13, 2026? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$44 | win |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April? | No | 87¢ | 88¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April? | Yes | 61¢ | 61¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Trump declare war on Iran by February 28, 2026? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | win |
| Will Trump say "Sleepy Joe" during Kentucky visit? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Trump's remarks not air? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Trump say "Khamenei" or "Ayatollah" during Monday press conference? | Yes | 61¢ | 0¢ | $-121 | loss |
Elections 48% $-37,821
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 18¢ | 17¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will The Greens win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections? | Yes | 4¢ | 0¢ | $-56 | loss |
| Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections? | Yes | 87¢ | 100¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Will CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections? | No | 5¢ | 0¢ | $-24 | loss |
| Democrats win popular vote by 0-1%? | Yes | 3¢ | 0¢ | $-758 | loss |
| Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election? | Yes | 57¢ | 0¢ | +$513 | win |
| Trump wins every swing state? | Yes | 74¢ | 100¢ | +$876 | win |
| Will a Republican win Michigan Presidential Election? | Yes | 89¢ | 100¢ | +$470 | win |
| Trump claims victory before AP calls the election? | No | 16¢ | 0¢ | +$95 | win |
| Trump wins 312-226 - swing state sweep | No | 6¢ | 0¢ | +$18 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 15.0¢ | 0¢ | $-764 | $764 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 8? | Yes | 43.0¢ | 100¢ | +$24 | $223 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 9? | Yes | 43.1¢ | 100¢ | +$23 | $142 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 9? | No | 4.9¢ | 0¢ | $-59 | $175 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 8? | No | 32.5¢ | 0¢ | $-2,771 | $2,975 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will Paradex launch a token on March 5? | Yes | 78.0¢ | 100¢ | +$680 | $2,418 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Israel strike Gaza on March 7, 2026? | Yes | 38.0¢ | 100¢ | +$802 | $920 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran first? | Israel | 67.2¢ | 50¢ | +$657 | $5,559 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | No | 27.6¢ | 0¢ | +$600 | $3,410 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 7? | No | 98.3¢ | 100¢ | +$521 | $6,083 | 31/03/2026 |
| U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by March 31? | No | 85.4¢ | 100¢ | +$453 | $2,180 | 31/03/2026 |
| US strikes Iraq by March 7? | No | 44.3¢ | 0¢ | +$401 | $1,789 | 31/03/2026 |
| US strikes Iraq by March 7? | Yes | 75.1¢ | 100¢ | +$397 | $3,009 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran first? | US | 27.0¢ | 50¢ | +$390 | $674 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel strike Gaza on March 8, 2026? | Yes | 61.4¢ | 100¢ | +$317 | $587 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 8? | No | 61.7¢ | 0¢ | +$249 | $542 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 8, 2026? | No | 97.7¢ | 100¢ | +$182 | $8,035 | 31/03/2026 |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | No | 98.5¢ | 100¢ | +$158 | $13,515 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 59.2¢ | 100¢ | +$148 | $592 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 31? | Yes | 88.0¢ | 100¢ | +$143 | $1,056 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 9, 2026? | Yes | 96.6¢ | 100¢ | +$127 | $2,410 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? | Yes | 85.2¢ | 100¢ | +$89 | $722 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026? | No | 84.5¢ | 100¢ | +$88 | $479 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? | No | 95.7¢ | 100¢ | +$72 | $1,617 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 7? | Yes | 4.5¢ | 0¢ | +$56 | $126 | 31/03/2026 |
| US downs a Mexican cartel drone by March 31? | No | 90.0¢ | 100¢ | +$45 | $404 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 15? | Yes | 97.1¢ | 100¢ | +$40 | $1,021 | 31/03/2026 |
| Houthi strike on Israel by March 15, 2026? | No | 87.0¢ | 100¢ | +$39 | $261 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel strike Gaza on March 7, 2026? | No | 27.3¢ | 0¢ | +$33 | $28 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel strike Gaza on March 9, 2026? | No | 87.1¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | $180 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump declare war on Iran by February 28, 2026? | No | 96.7¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | $484 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Khamenei tweet again by March 21? | No | 24.6¢ | 0¢ | +$16 | $292 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? | Yes | 2.8¢ | 0¢ | +$2 | $28 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 15? | No | 3.0¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | $47 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will another country strike Iran by March 31? | No | 36.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $36 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 7? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | $-5 | $4,923 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel strike Gaza on March 8, 2026? | No | 5.2¢ | 0¢ | $-27 | $27 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 7, 2026? | Yes | 5.5¢ | 0¢ | $-32 | $32 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Khamenei tweet again by March 10? | No | 23.0¢ | 0¢ | $-46 | $46 | 31/03/2026 |
| France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? | No | 80.3¢ | 100¢ | $-78 | $2,811 | 31/03/2026 |
| DeepSeek V4 released by March 31? | Yes | 46.0¢ | 0¢ | $-92 | $92 | 31/03/2026 |
| DeepSeek V4 released by March 15? | Yes | 41.0¢ | 0¢ | $-130 | $205 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 8, 2026? | Yes | 37.1¢ | 0¢ | $-141 | $244 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? | Yes | 30.7¢ | 0¢ | $-152 | $1,227 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Khamenei tweet again by March 7? | No | 70.0¢ | 0¢ | $-331 | $335 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March? | Yes | 54.0¢ | 0¢ | $-421 | $674 | 31/03/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | No | 17.2¢ | 0¢ | $-2,366 | $2,483 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel strike Gaza on March 5, 2026? | Yes | 23.3¢ | 0¢ | $-2,898 | $2,911 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting? | No | 1.1¢ | 0¢ | +$6 | $22 | 18/03/2026 |
| Will Powell say "Volatile" during March press conference? | Yes | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $2,405 | 18/03/2026 |