Win rate
50.3%
177 W / 175 L
Total PnL
$5,837
realized $-21,190 · unrealized $27,027
Portfolio
$27,027
volume $882,491
Predictions
589
13.9/day · avg $1,498
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 29/10/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 18/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 18/04/2026 |
| Qualified | no |
Category breakdown
Culture 39% +$3,387
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Marty Supreme win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | $-126 | loss |
| Will Train Dreams win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 9¢ | 0¢ | $-46 | loss |
| Will Sean Penn win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 70¢ | 100¢ | +$48 | win |
| Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 74¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 28¢ | 0¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Will Paul Thomas Anderson win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 7¢ | 0¢ | $-35 | loss |
| Will Rose Byrne win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 5¢ | 0¢ | $-54 | loss |
| Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 51¢ | 0¢ | $-78 | loss |
| Will Golden (Ejae and Mark Sonnenblick) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? | No | 20¢ | 100¢ | +$3,297 | win |
| Will Olivia Dean win Best New Artist at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? | No | 28¢ | 0¢ | $-57 | loss |
Other 50% +$2,183
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| StandX FDV above $800M one day after launch? | No | 29¢ | 84¢ | +$6 | win |
| Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch? | Yes | 43¢ | 0¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Yes | 18¢ | 18¢ | +$28 | win |
| Will Jia Yueting enter mainland China by June 30? | No | 91¢ | 96¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | Yes | 12¢ | 5¢ | $-16 | loss |
| Will a team from Portugal be the 2026 Champions League winner? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Michael Olise have the most assists during the 2025-26 Bundesliga season? | Yes | 95¢ | 95¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Yes | 4¢ | 0¢ | $-36 | loss |
| Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? | No | 86¢ | 100¢ | $-18 | loss |
| Will Real Madrid place 2nd for the 2025-26 LaLiga season? | Yes | 80¢ | 97¢ | +$67 | win |
Economy 61% +$472
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | No | 49¢ | 8¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting? | No | 93¢ | 100¢ | $-78 | loss |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | loss |
| No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | Yes | 46¢ | 92¢ | +$12 | win |
| No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after March 2026 meeting? | No | 8¢ | 0¢ | $-31 | loss |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting? | Yes | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$83 | win |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | $-58 | loss |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | Yes | 87¢ | 100¢ | $-34 | loss |
| Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? | Yes | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | win |
Politics 40% +$467
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in January 2026? | No | 10¢ | 0¢ | $-3 | loss |
| TrumpRX launched by January 31, 2026? | Yes | 21¢ | 0¢ | $-16 | loss |
| Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in January 2026? | Yes | 75¢ | 100¢ | $-90 | loss |
| Will Trump visit China by March 31? | No | 31¢ | 100¢ | +$516 | win |
| Will Trump visit China by March 31? | Yes | 20¢ | 0¢ | +$59 | win |
Crypto 49% +$300
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will OpenSea launch a token by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 7¢ | 0¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET | Up | 51¢ | 100¢ | +$49 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET | Down | 45¢ | 100¢ | +$38 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET | Up | 51¢ | 0¢ | $-36 | loss |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET | Down | 51¢ | 100¢ | +$49 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET | Up | 50¢ | 100¢ | +$40 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET | Down | 52¢ | 100¢ | +$30 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET | Up | 51¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | loss |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET | Up | 66¢ | 0¢ | $-33 | loss |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET | Up | 76¢ | 100¢ | +$26 | win |
Geopolitics 61% +$86
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 61¢ | 100¢ | +$194 | win |
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? | Yes | 74¢ | 100¢ | +$77 | win |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | No | 86¢ | 91¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? | No | 89¢ | 100¢ | $-470 | loss |
| Will Borussia Dortmund qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League? | Yes | 98¢ | 75¢ | $-8 | loss |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | No | 35¢ | 0¢ | $-106 | loss |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 99¢ | 0¢ | $-14 | loss |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 42¢ | 100¢ | +$224 | win |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026? | No | 42¢ | 0¢ | +$49 | win |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 3¢ | 0¢ | +$15 | win |
Sports 20% +$15
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 50¢ | 17¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 50¢ | 83¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Yes | 3¢ | 4¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | No | 58¢ | 4¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | Yes | 30¢ | 2¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Will the United States win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? | Yes | 14¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will the Patriots win the AFC Championship? | Yes | 18¢ | 100¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? | Yes | 72¢ | 100¢ | +$28 | win |
Weather 0% $-1
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Another 7.0 or above earthquake by January 31, 2026? | No | 37¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
Tech 52% $-908
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | Yes | 83¢ | 87¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? | Yes | 16¢ | 16¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30? | Yes | 93¢ | 99¢ | +$24 | win |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | Yes | 3¢ | 0¢ | $-83 | loss |
| Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30? | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$81 | win |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30? | No | 7¢ | 1¢ | $-38 | loss |
| Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30? | Yes | 34¢ | 20¢ | $-922 | loss |
| Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30? | Yes | 46¢ | 78¢ | +$1,603 | win |
| Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)? | Yes | 5¢ | 1¢ | $-99 | loss |
| Will OpenAI have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? | Yes | 2¢ | 5¢ | +$38 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET | Up | 51.0¢ | 100¢ | +$49 | $51 | 18/04/2026 |
| Will Barcelona reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? | Yes | 82.5¢ | 100¢ | +$127 | $600 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Real Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? | Yes | 82.0¢ | 100¢ | +$36 | $164 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Tottenham Hotspur reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? | No | 95.8¢ | 100¢ | +$29 | $697 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? | Yes | 99.3¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | $1,986 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Atalanta reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? | No | 99.1¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $195 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Bodø/Glimt reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? | Yes | 82.0¢ | 0¢ | $-164 | $164 | 16/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | No | 92.0¢ | 0¢ | $-3 | $46 | 15/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET | Down | 45.0¢ | 100¢ | +$38 | $32 | 09/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET | Up | 51.0¢ | 0¢ | $-36 | $36 | 09/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 98.5¢ | 0¢ | $-14 | $296 | 07/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET | Down | 51.0¢ | 100¢ | +$49 | $51 | 06/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET | Up | 50.0¢ | 100¢ | +$40 | $40 | 05/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET | Down | 52.0¢ | 100¢ | +$30 | $32 | 05/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET | Up | 51.2¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | $20 | 05/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET | Up | 66.0¢ | 0¢ | $-33 | $33 | 05/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET | Up | 75.8¢ | 100¢ | +$26 | $92 | 04/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET | Up | 77.0¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $23 | 04/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET | Down | 82.2¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $25 | 04/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET | Up | 89.2¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $36 | 04/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET | Up | 61.5¢ | 0¢ | $-4 | $37 | 04/04/2026 |
| Will NVIDIA dip to $152 in March? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $580 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Tesla dip to $330 in March? | No | 99.1¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $324 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Tesla reach $420 in March? | No | 98.2¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $70 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will NVIDIA reach $216 in March? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $99 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Tesla reach $450 in March? | No | 99.2¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $41 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31? | Yes | 67.1¢ | 100¢ | +$1,809 | $3,766 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31? | Yes | 72.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1,538 | $3,883 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? | Yes | 60.4¢ | 100¢ | +$1,422 | $2,663 | 31/03/2026 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 42.0¢ | 100¢ | +$224 | $474 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31? | Yes | 97.5¢ | 100¢ | +$201 | $7,240 | 31/03/2026 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026? | No | 42.0¢ | 0¢ | +$49 | $495 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? | No | 20.0¢ | 0¢ | +$34 | $174 | 31/03/2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 3.2¢ | 0¢ | +$15 | $77 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Google have the third-best AI model at the end of March 2026? | Yes | 96.5¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $566 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Anthropic have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026? | Yes | 97.2¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $384 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $410 end of March? | No | 97.6¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $132 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $140 end of March? | Yes | 99.4¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $808 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $420 end of March? | No | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $86 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $170 end of March? | Yes | 99.3¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $147 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $250 end of March? | No | 98.5¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $66 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $430 end of March? | No | 98.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $100 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $435 end of March? | No | 99.1¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $77 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $460 end of March? | No | 99.3¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $58 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? | Yes | 2.3¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | $48 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $150 end of March? | Yes | 99.2¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $25 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31? | Yes | 0.5¢ | 0¢ | $-0 | $30 | 31/03/2026 |
| Another 7.0 or above earthquake by January 31, 2026? | No | 37.4¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | $75 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31? | Yes | 0.6¢ | 0¢ | $-13 | $33 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? | Yes | 2.9¢ | 0¢ | $-61 | $76 | 31/03/2026 |